2023 NFL Week 3 odds: Best bets, picks, including Colts, Browns to cover

NFL Week 2 is in the books, and what a monster week it was! 

We kicked off Week 3 with two winners right off the bat, with the 49ers covering the big spread at home on Thursday Night Football. 

Can another big favorite cover this Sunday? And can Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins keep up with the hype and hand the Denver Broncos their third-straight loss?

Let's dive into my best bets for the NFL Week 3 slate, including a 4-team teaser that should hit.

Colts at Ravens (1 p.m ET Sunday, CBS)

This is a classic sandwich spot for the Ravens, who are coming off an emotional win over the rival Bengals. In the two weeks after this matchup, they face divisional road games at Cleveland and Pittsburgh. Plus, the Ravens are as beat up as anyone in the AFC. 

After missing six starters last week, you can add pass rusher Odafe Oweh, No. 1 running back Justice Hill, and receivers Odell Beckham and Devin Duvernay to that list. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Ravens sleepwalk through the early portions of this game and then wake up and win, but not fail to cover. 

Gardner Minshew, starting for concussed rookie Anthony Richardson, has been with head coach Shane Steichen for three years in Philly and should have success keeping it close. The concern here for the Colts is that they have a banged-up offensive line, and two of the top two players at the position (Ryan Kelly, Quenton Nelson) hit the injury report Wednesday.

PICK: Colts (+8) to lose by fewer than 8 points (or win outright)

Titans at Browns (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

The narrative about Cleveland after the Monday night disaster in Pittsburgh is that Nick Chubb is done for the season, DeShaun Watson is washed, Amari Cooper is banged up, and it won't be able to move the ball. That’s the wrong way to approach the game, and that's why I like the Browns here at a field goal. 

The Cleveland defense is the story. 

The Browns have not permitted an opponent into the red zone this season. The upgraded front four has been obliterating opponents, and the secondary — led by Grant Delpit — is much improved. Cleveland leads the NFL in QB knockdowns (14) and is third in pressure rate. So, expect Ryan Tannehill to be under pressure. We saw him crumble and throw three interceptions against the Saints in the opener, and he’s been sacked eight times. I’m adding the Under to my card, but I’m skittish that it’s been hit so hard that a couple of defensive TDs on QB mistakes might be the difference.

PICK: Browns (-3) to win by more than 3 points 

Broncos at Dolphins (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

Every time this spread hits 7, the number guys buy back on Denver. I’m going to stick with Miami even though the spot isn’t great when you factor in the narratives about Denver driving this line from -3.5 a week ago. 

The Broncos lost the opener due to a missed field goal, a missed extra point and some dumb penalties. They wasted a 21-3 lead against Washington. They are very close to being 2-0. 

Does Denver keep Patrick Surtain on one side, or does he follow Tyreek Hill around? It might depend on whether Jaylen Waddle plays or sits out (concussion). 

Rain is in the forecast this weekend around Hard Rock Stadium, which could help slow down Miami’s track speed. I’m very curious to see how Sean Payton attacks his longtime friend Vic Fangio, who used to coach the Broncos.

I'll pass at -7 but will take -6.5.

PICK: Dolphins (-6.5) to win by more than 6.5 points

Cowboys at Cardinals (4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX and FOX Sports App)

The Cowboys are the wild card. I bet them personally, but I can’t give out a double-digit favorite here. And Dallas could get caught looking ahead to next week's matchup with the Patriots. The Cowboys could sleepwalk to a close win over a bad Arizona team with a head coach who was the DC of the Eagles last year and is familiar with what they want to do. 

Bills at Commanders (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

I think Buffalo is still undervalued, and last week, it was an easy winner in the pick of the week. 

Chargers at Vikings (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX and FOX Sports App)

The Chargers and Vikings game likely comes down to who has the ball last. I bet the Over earlier in the week, but it’s too inflated now to give it out. 

Steelers at Raiders (8:20 p.m.ET Sunday, NBC)

I like Pittsburgh to win outright, but I’m puzzled by the line movement, so teasing it through 3 and 7 provides some protection. 

Kenny Pickett should have success against a defense that plays two high safeties and prevents the big play. Unlike facing elite units in the 49ers and Browns, Pickett will be given a lot of easy stuff underneath and move the football.

Four-team, 6.5-point teaser: Cowboys -6.5, Bills pick, Chargers +7.5, Steelers +9

You want to go through 3 and 7 as often as possible, and you do that in three of these four games. 

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst who also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead. Follow him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.