2023 NFL odds: Who will lead league in sacks? Odds, predictions, picks

The NFL's stars on offense – the quarterbacks, pass catchers and running backs – dominate the highlights whenever they reach the end zone.

But another highlight-producing player, the pass rusher, is the athlete who causes problems for the opposing offense.

Offensive tackles jump offsides, and tight ends are kept in as extra blocks as a sign of respect for pass rushers who can wreak havoc.

FOX Sports NFL Analyst Michael Strahan (2001 with the New York Giants) and T.J. Watt of the Pittsburgh Steelers (2021) share the single-season record for sacks with 22.5.

Can that record be broken this season?

Let's take a look at the odds for the leader in sacks for the 2023 season, with expert picks by FOX Sports NFL Analyst Geoff Schwartz, a former offensive lineman.

RELATED: 2023 NFL Week 1 odds, predictions, lines, spreads

2023 odds for most sacks*

Myles Garrett, Browns: +650 (bet $10 to win $75 total)
Nick Bosa, 49ers: +750 (bet $10 to win $85 total)
T.J. Watt, Steelers: +850 (bet $10 to win $95 total)
Micah Parsons, Cowboys: +900 (bet $10 to win $100 total)
Maxx Crosby, Raiders: +1600 (bet $10 to win $170 total)
Haason Reddick, Eagles: +1600 (bet $10 to win $170 total)
Trey Hendrickson, Bengals: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Aaron Donald, Rams: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Aidan Hutchinson, Lions: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Brian Burns, Panthers: +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total)
Matthew Judon, Patriots: +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total)
Danielle Hunter, Vikings: +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total)
Joey Bosa, Chargers: +3500 (bet $10 to win $360 total)
Preston Smith, Packers: +3500 (bet $10 to win $360 total)
Chris Jones, Chiefs: +3500 (bet $10 to win $360 total)
Cameron Jordan, Saints: +3000 (bet $10 to win $360 total)
Alex Highsmith: Steelers: +3500 (bet $10 to win $360 total)
Jaelan Phillips, Dolphins: +3500 (bet $10 to win $360 total)
Josh Allen, Jaguars: +4000 (bet $10 to win $410 total)
Harold Landry, Titans: +5000 (bet $10 to win $510 total)
Brandon Graham, Eagles: +5000 (bet $10 to win $510 total)
Za'Darius Smith, Browns: +5000 (bet $10 to win $510 total)
Khalil Mack, Chargers: +5000 (bet $10 to win $510 total)
Uchenna Nwosu, Seahawks: +5000 (bet $10 to win $510 total)

* as of 8/19/2023

For reference, here are the top 10 players in sacks last season:

Nick Bosa, 49ers: 18.5
Myles Garrett, Browns: 16.0
Haason Reddick, Eagles: 16.0
Chris Jones, Chiefs: 15.5
Matthew Judon, Patriots: 15.5
Alex Highsmith: Steelers: 14.5
Micah Parsons, Cowboys: 13.5
J.J. Watt, Cardinals: 12.5
Maxx Crosby, Raiders: 12.5
Brian Burns, Panthers: 12.5

Picks by FOX Sports NFL Analyst Geoff Schwartz

Nick Bosa, 49ers: +750 (bet $10 to win $85 total)

The 2022 NFL Defensive Player of the Year is rightly the favorite to lead the league in sacks after doing just that last season. He recorded 18.5 sacks and plays in a defense where double-teaming him is rather difficult. Pass rushers who play with better-surrounding players tend to rack up more sacks as offensive linemen and the protection schemes can’t focus on them.

Also, the 49ers are a winning team, and having late leads allows your pass rushers more opportunities later in games. As a former offensive lineman, I can tell you those are the most stressful situations for us during a game – a two-minute drill when everyone knows it’s a passing down. 

It’s good to note that since sacks became an official stat in 1982, there’s only been three instances of back-to-back NFL sack leaders. Mark Gastineau in 1983-84, Reggie White in 1987-88 and T.J. Watt in 2020-21. It’s hard to do.

T.J. Watt, Steelers: +850 (bet $10 to win $95 total)

It feels like Watt’s dominance gets overlooked by flashier players at his position. Watt had seven sacks his rookie season, then jumped to 13 in his second. His sack total increased to 14.5 in 2019, 15 in 2021 and 22.5 in 2022. 

Last season Watt injured his pec muscle in the Steelers' Week 1 victory against the Bengals and did not return until Week 10. He still managed to play in 10 games but clearly wasn’t the same player working around his injury. Watt is fully healthy entering 2023, and there’s no reason he shouldn’t return to form playing in a strong Steelers defense.

Micah Parsons, Cowboys: +900 (bet $10 to win $100 total)

Parsons is entering his third NFL season with at least 13 sacks in each of his first two seasons, and he’s primed to lead the league this season. Parsons has not been a full-time pass rusher and edge player, as the Cowboys have used him to play in the box more often than is ideal. 

The Cowboys did start to adjust his playing position after Week 10 last season. Parsons had 171 reps as a box defender, but only 17 of those were after the Cowboys' Week 10 game. This season Parsons will be used primarily as a pass rusher, and he’s ready for that action.

Parsons spent time studying offensive linemen to better prepare for the 2023 season. He cold-called Andrew Whitworth, the newly retired veteran offensive tackle, to work with him in May. Whitworth flew to Texas to spend three days with Parsons to help him better his game. This is huge.

I love that Parsons is taking extra steps to improve his game as a full-time pass rusher. With more knowledge and a bigger toolbox for pass-rush moves, he will be scary for OL.

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