2023 NFL odds: Lions-Cowboys have highest total of season
Two of the NFL's top five scoring offenses meet Saturday night when the Detroit Lions (11-4) play at the Dallas Cowboys (10-5).
The Cowboys are second in scoring offense (30.1 points per game) and the Lions are fifth (27.5).
Dallas is fifth in scoring defense (19.1 PPG allowed), but Detroit is 24th (23.7).
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It's no surprise the total for the contest is a season-high 53.5 points.
A no-brainer to play the Over, right?
Not so fast.
According to Bet Labs Sports, the Under is 27-12 (69.2%) the past two seasons with totals of 50 or more points.
Lions @ Cowboys (8:15 p.m. ET Saturday, ABC/ESPN)
Point spread: Cowboys -6 (Cowboys favored to win by more than 6 points, otherwise Lions cover)
Moneyline: Cowboys -268 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $13.73 total); Lions +218 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $31.80 total)
Total: 53.5 points scored by both teams combined
The Lions are 10-5 (66.7%) on the Over this season, tied with the Indianapolis Colts for best in the league.
The Cowboys are 8-7 (53.3%) on the Over, in a four-way tie for ninth-best in the NFL.
"I don't think it's a coincidence that the Lions have scored 30-plus points in all five of their wins since the bye week," FOX Sports Cowboys Insider David Helman said. "The strength of this team is its offense. It always has been.
"Typically, when they fail to flirt with the high 20s-low 30s, they don't win games because gaining yardage and scoring touchdowns is their bread and butter. You're not going to win defensive battles with the state of the Lions defense."
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Detroit's struggling defense takes on Dak Prescott & Co., who have lost consecutive games for the first time since Weeks 11-12 in 2021.
But Dallas is playing at home, where the Cowboys are 7-0 and outscoring opponents by almost 25 points per game.
Helman said Detroit has a "leaky" defense, as the Lions have allowed at least 350 total yards in four of their seven games since the bye in Week 9.
"It's really been a weekly adventure in terms of how many yards and how many points they're going to give up," Helman said.
FOX Sports NFL Analyst Jonathan Vilma was part of the broadcast team for the Lions-Vikings game this past weekend. Detroit's margin of victory has been six points or fewer four times in its past five wins.
"The point is that they know they're always going to find a way to win the game when they need to because these close games, they add up, especially in the playoffs when the talent is the same, the skill set is the same," Vilma said. "You have to execute, and they found a way [Sunday]. They're hoping to do that again in the playoffs."
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