2023 NFL odds: Best bets for Michigan-Alabama, Auburn-Maryland

The stupid-hot run continues.

We won three of four bets last weekend and pushed Bears-Cardinals Over 43 thanks to a 27-16 final score in Chicago. That’s now a 16-2-4 heater since Thanksgiving, which is just downright absurd, if we’re being honest.

I’ve got a couple of college football bets and three NFL plays this weekend. Remember, this space isn’t the place for a million picks or five-team parlays, either. These will always be the games I love the most.

Let’s go to work.

Michigan Wolverines (-1.5, O/U 45) vs. Alabama Crimson Tide

I’ll be in the minority here, and that’s okay. And obviously, betting against Nick Saban can be a nerve-wracking experience, especially with all the extra time to prepare. It still feels like this undefeated Michigan team is underrated.

Blue has multiple NFL dudes on defense — so does Bama, of course — and I think the lack of professional playmakers on the Tide side of the ball will be an issue. Give Jalen Milroe tons of credit for his in-season improvement, but Michigan’s defense is a bear. I like their ability to bring pressure toward the pocket.  

It’s also funny how Michigan gets knocked for a "weak schedule," while Bama laid in the weeds for most of the season in an SEC conference that was far from dominant compared to years past. I also picked Alabama against Georgia a month ago, so let’s not get anything twisted. 

If the Wolverines can hit some shots down the field against Bama’s impressive corners, it’ll allow their run game (2,103 yards and 35 TDs) to operate more efficiently. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy can throw on the run, too. 

Jim Harbaugh gets a lot of flack for a lack of success in the College Football Playoff, but I truly believe this is his best team yet. I’m willing to find out if that’s enough to beat Alabama. 

PICK: Michigan ML -125

Auburn Tigers (-6.5, O/U 47.5) vs. Maryland Terrapins

Taulia Tagovailoa opted out for Maryland and, naturally, the line moved quite a bit. 

Auburn went from -2 to -7, and eventually, the buyback came on the Terps at +7. 

I still don’t think the quarterback drop off is that large, and Mike Locksley will scheme up ways to move the ball.

PICK: Maryland (+6.5) to lose by fewer than 6.5 points (or win outright)

Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys (-5.5, O/U 52)

Dallas returns home after two extremely tough road games at Buffalo and Miami. 

I was impressed with the way the Cowboys picked themselves off the mats after the Bills beat them down, but a couple of plays derailed a chance to steal a win in South Beach. 

Now, America’s Team is back home in the dome against a very overrated defense. Dallas’ receivers should eat well all day. 

PICK: Cowboys (-5.5) to win by more than 5.5 points

Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5, O/U 44)

I haven’t bet the Chiefs many times this year because clearly, something ain’t right with the offense. But at some point, you have to bet an advantageous number. 

I was willing to lay -7 with the Kansas City D against a backup quarterback, and now I can lay 6.5. 

Let’s take advantage of a cheap number due to Kansas City's recent 1-4-1 against-the-spread run. 

PICK: Chiefs (-6.5) to win by more than 6.5 points

Atlanta Falcons @ Chicago Bears (-3, O/U 38)

We hit with Atlanta last week, and I’m going back to the well on Sunday. 

The Falcons run defense is criminally underrated, and that’s what the Bears want to do. 

Chicago has been playing much better since acquiring Montez Sweat, but laying points with this offense is still something I won’t do. 

The Birds are maddening, but I’ll take the points.

PICK: Falcons (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points (or win outright)

2023 Record: (43-31-5, +8.7) 

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.