Bookmaker discusses 49ers-Eagles vs. the field, sharp money, power ratings
America’s Game of the Week heads to the City of Brotherly Love this Sunday for a showdown between the Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers.
You can watch all the action of the big game at 4:25 pm ET on FOX and the FOX Sports App.
Las Vegas bookmakers expect a ton of betting interest for several reasons. Not only are two of the NFL’s best teams locking horns, but you’ve also got two very efficient quarterbacks and a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship.
Action will be plentiful, to say the least.
"Wise guys laid San Francisco -2.5 with me [Thursday] morning," South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews told FOX Sports. "I’m sure I’ll write some back at +3. Philly will get that respect at home at a full three."
It’s crystal clear Andrews and his bookie buddies have more respect for San Francisco despite Philadelphia having only one loss over 10 games. That's because rankings and records don’t matter much to the guys behind the counter.
Power ratings rule the roost.
"I have the Niners as the best team in the NFL," Andrews declared. "They hit that trough in late October and lost three in a row, but they were really beat up. When healthy, they’re 2.5 points better than anybody on a neutral field."
The Eagles remain a polarizing team among the sharp cats in the desert. I know a handful of people who think they’ve been downright lucky, while others applaud their ability to win tight games against good teams.
Maybe both things are true?
"They’ve found ways to win all year," Andrews said. "It’s not just the last two games. Those were significant victories against Kansas City and Buffalo. Only two teams have beaten those two – Philadelphia and Denver."
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Is it the 49ers and Eagles vs. the field?
Some believe the Dallas Cowboys have a chance to crash what feels like an inevitable Niners-Eagles party in this year’s NFC title game, but it’s tough for me to get there until the Cowboys beat a good team. All eight of their victories came against teams with losing records.
Dallas also hasn’t made it past the divisional round since 1995.
"It's tough to power rate the Cowboys because they just blow out weak teams during the regular season," Andrews opined. "But what are they going to do in the playoffs at Philly or San Francisco? I don’t have much confidence there."
Andrews did say he would open Dallas as a 7.5-point favorite at Atlanta in a potential wild-card weekend matchup in early January.
Meanwhile, if Philadelphia takes it on the chin Sunday, Jalen Hurts’ NFL MVP odds will dip. He’s as low as +140 in the market, which is wild considering Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes are doing their best to carry less-talented teams to a No. 1 seed in the AFC.
The South Point doesn’t take bets on markets like NFL MVP or Offensive Player of the Year, where voters dictate the result, but that doesn’t mean Andrews is short on opinions.
"Narratives can be downright ridiculous in professional sports," he cracked. "It’s easy to take the quarterback of a 9-1 team and ring the bell for him to be MVP. It’s a simple argument.
"I remember when Eli Manning and the Giants won their second Super Bowl, and Peyton only had the one at the time. People would ask what makes Eli a better quarterback. And they were serious!"
Narratives, who needs ‘em?
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In closing, Sunday’s showdown between two of the NFC’s highest-power-rated teams should be a doozy. And while it’s difficult to ignore the financial shift to the Niners, it’s almost equally difficult to bet against the one-loss Eagles.
That sharp money sure speaks volumes, though.
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.