2023 NFL Draft odds: How oddsmakers and sportsbooks set lines for the NFL Draft

Betting the NFL Draft is a non-stop race for information.

When the Chicago Bears traded the No. 1 overall pick to the Carolina Panthers in mid-march, the first wave of rumors indicated that the Panthers might be enamored with Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud.

Stroud quickly became the odds-on favorite to go first at multiple sportsbooks, but bettors and bookmakers started throwing salt on that rumor as time went on. Aside from a connection between Stroud and Panthers quarterback coach Josh McCown, there wasn’t really much meat on the bone.

Eventually, real information leaked about Carolina’s absolute infatuation with Alabama quarterback Bryce Young and the 2021 Heisman Trophy winner morphed from a 3-1 underdog to a three-dollar favorite around Easter.

Young is now -10000 at FOX Bet [$10,000 wins $100] to go No. 1.

"Betting the draft seems to get more popular every year, but it’s one of those markets that’s really difficult to book," Circa Sports director of operations Jeff Benson told FOX Sports from Las Vegas.

"When you have a Super Bowl futures market, you can take stands on things. The market may be 8-1 on this team, but we feel comfortable at 12-1 because that’s what we make their true price and probability. When talking about the draft, you throw all that stuff out the window.

"You must assume that even the most recreational gambler has information or knowledge that you maybe don’t have. The difference between the draft and something that takes place on a playing surface is that there’s a huge information asymmetry between what sharp gamblers receive versus what the sportsbook gets."

Interesting, huh?

"If you think about a sportsbook opening an NFL game at -3 on a Sunday seven days out, that line typically closes -2, -3 or -4 assuming a quarterback doesn’t blow out his knee or a team doesn’t get blasted by COVID. Anything outside of that is a big deviation from the norm.

"But we’ve had draft markets where we opened a player’s draft position at 150.5, and it moved 70 or 80 spots by the time we closed. We opened [Clemson defensive end] Myles Murphy at ‘Over’ 13.5 (PK) and moved to -700 on the ‘Over’ before moving it to 18.5 juiced to the ‘Over.’"

Murphy is one of the most perceived "fallers" in the betting market over the last few weeks, along with Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson, TCU receiver Quentin Johnston and Penn State cornerback Joey Porter Jr.

Richardson’s draft position was as low as 3.5 a few weeks ago, with magic dust from the combine still lingering in the minds of bettors and bookmakers, but it’s now being dealt at 7.5. Meanwhile, Johnston [O/U 13.5 to 22.5] and Porter [O/U 14.5 to 19.5] are also trending in the wrong direction.

Big risers in the market are Texas Tech edge rusher Tyree Wilson [which we wrote about two weeks ago], Tennessee offensive lineman Darnell Wright, Texas running back Bijan Robinson and Maryland cornerback Deonte Banks.

Their draft positions are all substantially lower than the openers.

[Related: Where will star running back Bijan Robinson land?]

"The moves you see in the draft are things you don’t see in day-to-day sports," Benson said. "The bettors are much better than the books at identifying the value of the juice and how much each draft position is worth. And to a certain degree, a lot of sportsbooks try to book the draft like a regular NFL game, and they don’t move hard enough on the bets they’re getting.

"It’s a market where you have to be comfortable scalping yourself and utilizing the information you’re seeing. The price discovery is so much different than toggling between -3 (-120) and -3.5 (+100). It’s a huge difference when you’re taking bets on a guy who flunked medicals or a guy who Daniel Jeremiah is hearing bad things about or Lance Zierlein has sliding down his mock.

"You have to be ready to take a bet on somebody at +200 and move it to -150. You have to be unafraid to take a bet at 13.5 flat and go to 13.5 -300 instantly. Those are the sizes of moves you have to make in this market. It’s all about minimizing loss and adjusting immediately.

"It’s a difficult market to book. It’s certainly a market you don’t expect to win on, and it’s definitely a loss leader behind the counter."

Benson had me howling when discussing a recent Reddit report from a random poster who claimed that Kentucky quarterback Will Levis was telling his family and close friends he was going No. 1 overall to Carolina.

One American sportsbook was dealing Levis as high as 50-1 to go first overall at the time of the Reddit post, and that price got blasted to oblivion. Despite there not being any validation behind the report, bets flew in from all directions. One shop got all the way down to 5-1 on Levis being the first name announced by NFL commissioner Roger Goodell.

All that from a Reddit post that probably isn’t true.

"One report, one tweet or one random post on Reddit can start that snowball rolling, and it can turn into an avalanche. It’s such an information-based market where one of those reports leads to bet after bet.

"If you take a nickel pop on something at 40-1 in Nevada and don’t move it and take another nickel pop, then go to 35-1 and take another nickel pop in another state, things add up very, very quickly. It doesn’t even matter if you believe a Reddit report or not. The last thing you want to do is be stuck six figures to a guy because you didn’t listen to the market.

"The only goal is not to get killed."

By this point, everybody knows about Carolina’s affinity for Young, and everybody knows the NFL Draft really begins at No. 2 with the Houston Texans.

After months of assumptions that Stroud and Young – or Young and Stroud – would be the first two guys off the board, it’s sounding more and more like the Texans will go with a defensive player if they keep the pick.

If they trade it, who the hell knows what’ll happen.

"We opened with Anderson favored to go second and Levis around 5-1," Benson recalled. "The initial action on Levis drove the number down to -150, but we’re hearing more and more about the Texans not taking a quarterback.

"There are some strong people who believe that to be a great possibility while others just can’t fathom how the Texans can go into a season with Davis Mills and Case Keenum at quarterback. It’s fascinating how polarizing it is.

"Lance Zierlein seems really plugged into what the Texans are doing, and he’s been beating the drum that they love the two edge guys. In that No. 2 spot, we’re inclined to believe defense is becoming much more of a possibility.

"Gun to my head, I think it’s Anderson or Wilson." 

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.