2023 NFL Draft odds: Betting recap; biggest Super Bowl futures movement
Now that NFL Draft odds are off the board, Super Bowl odds jump to the fore. As the draft unfolded Thursday-Saturday, oddsmakers — and bettors — analyzed what it meant to each team’s championship prospects, and there were certainly some adjustments.
Based on what sportsbooks are seeing, it was a good weekend for the defending NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles. And the Baltimore Ravens helped their cause by securing Lamar Jackson’s services for years to come.
FOX Bet sports trader Matt Griffe and PointsBet USA media analytics manager Wyatt Yearout help break down Super Bowl odds moves and recap NFL Draft betting.
Let's jump into the action!
Fly Eagles Fly
The Eagles already have an excellent roster, as evidenced by reaching the Super Bowl last season and nearly knocking off the Kansas City Chiefs. Jalen Hurts & Co. came up just short, losing 38-35 to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.
Philly began reloading with what many deemed a strong draft, particularly in the first round. The Eagles had two picks and used both on products from Georgia’s national championship team: defensive tackle Jalen Carter and linebacker Nolan Smith.
The Eagles also traded with the Detroit Lions to add running back D’Andre Swift — another former Georgia Bulldog. With the Eagles already high up on the Super Bowl odds board, there wasn’t much room to move. But FOX Bet gave Philly a modest nudge.
"Philadelphia sticks out as the rich-getting-richer team and received the most backing throughout the weekend, leading to a small trim from +900 to +850," Griffe said.
That makes the Eagles the fourth choice at FOX Bet, behind the favored Chiefs (+600), and the San Francisco 49ers and Buffalo Bills (both +800). At PointsBet, the Eagles crept from +850 to +800, behind only the Chiefs (+600) and Niners (+750).
And Philly has been a popular play of late.
"The Eagles have taken the most Super Bowl action since Day 1 of the draft," Yearout said.
Locking Down Lamar
Multiple NFL analysts gave the Ravens an A in the NFL Draft. Baltimore led off by taking Boston College wide receiver Zay Flowers in the first round, which seemed a perfect complement to what the Ravens did hours before the first round.
Baltimore reached agreement with Jackson on a five-year, $260 million extension ($185 million guaranteed), and Jackson is now the highest-paid player in the NFL. PointsBet’s oddsmaking team quickly took note.
"Following the announcement of Lamar coming to agreement with the Ravens, we immediately shifted Ravens futures. Most notably, their Super Bowl odds went from +2500 into +1800," Yearout said.
Baltimore is now PointsBet’s co-eighth choice to win the Super Bowl, joining the Lions.
Prior to Jackson’s new deal, FOX Bet already had the Ravens at +2000 and opted stand pat.
"We had Lamar's return baked into the price and subsequently did not move when a deal finally got done," Griffe said. "We did not see much action on the Ravens [this weekend], as we were shorter than the market previously and are now more in line."
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Emmanuel Acho, Joy Taylor, LeSean McCoy and David Helman debate whether Ravens QB Lamar Jackson no longer has excuses or not.
Super Bowl Shuffle
The Seattle Seahawks were also among those making positive strides in FOX Bet’s Super Bowl odds market.
"Bettors loved Seattle's draft, as well," Griffe said. "That’s a team we were previously [longer] on than the market, causing a significant cut from +6600 to +4500."
So Seattle now stands in the middle of the Super Bowl pack. On the flip side are the Tennessee Titans, whose championship odds substantially slipped.
"Tennessee is a unique case, as their odds shortened leading up to the draft, with a good deal of smoke surrounding a move up to No. 3 and the likelihood of drafting C.J. Stroud," Griffe said. "Once Houston put an end to that, the Titans’ odds returned to pre-speculation levels."
The Titans went from +7500 to +5000 when it looked as if they might make a deal to move from the No. 11 overall pick to No. 3. When that didn’t happen, Tennessee slid to +8000, making the Titans the co-27th choice among the league’s 32 teams.
At PointsBet USA, Yearout pointed to a couple more noteworthy Super Bowl odds moves in the wake of the draft:
– Cincinnati Bengals from +1400 to +1000
– Dallas Cowboys from +1700 to +1200
– Buffalo Bills from +750 to +900
– Chicago Bears from +5000 to +4000
Feeling the Draft
PointsBet USA offered limited NFL Draft betting options beyond the first round, mainly surrounding Will Levis. The Kentucky quarterback was expected to go in the first five picks, but dropped entirely out of the first round.
That led to the hottest prop bet of the second round: Which team will draft Levis?
"The Rams took the most bets and most money. The Titans were third in bet count and second in money," Yearout said.
Those who placed Titans bets got paid out, as Tennessee took Levis with the second pick of the second round.
Added FOX Bet’s Griffe on NFL Draft betting for Days 2-3: "We had five remaining teams left to draft their first pick on Day 2. We saw a good amount of action on [prop bets of] team to draft offense/defense with their first pick. Miami stands out as a great result for us, as we saw significant backing on offense, moving the price from -150 to -350."
The Dolphins opted for defense, drafting South Carolina cornerback Cam Smith.
The NFL Draft was a winner for FOX Bet customers, but it was a much smaller win than in previous years. Sharp bettors consistently pick apart oddsmakers in the draft odds market, but surprising trades and the Levis plunge assisted the bookies this year.
"Overall, the draft will come in as a small loser for us," Griffe said, noting that bettors got a good win on Alabama QB Bryce Young going No. 1 overall.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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