2023 NFL Draft odds, best bets, positions, picks, predictions

The NFL Draft is finally here! And if you are looking for a one-stop shop for betting odds and best bets, we have you covered. 

Our FOX Sports betting experts — Chris "The Bear" Fallica, Sam Panayotovich, Geoff Schwartz and Jason McIntyre — lay out their favorite wagers on where the biggest names will get drafted today.

So before the chaos ensues, check out where our crew thinks some of the draft's most notable players will land, plus some lines on where some other hot names will get selected.

Let's dive in to the fun!

Chris Fallica

Jalen Carter Under pick No. 6.5 at +115 (bet $10 to win $21.50 total)

Carter reportedly has his share of concerns, but there’s zero doubt he’s an immediate impact player. If the Texans are going to take a defensive player, he could go as high as No. 2. Arizona could take him at three, Seattle could take him at five or Detroit could take him at six and pair him with last year’s No. 1 pick Aidan Hutchinson on what could be a pretty scary defensive line in a wide-open division. 

With so many questions on the quarterbacks and an apparent lack of teams looking to trade up for one of them, it likely means Carter goes very early. We're getting plus money on a guy worthy of being the top overall pick based on his play. 

Under 4.5 quarterbacks selected in the first round at -125 (bet $10 to win $18 total)

I completely get the logic that a team would want to take a QB in the back end of the first round for financial and contractual purposes. But is a team going to take a 25-year-old Hendon Hooker off a torn ACL from an air raid offense just for fifth-year control? What’s the earliest he potentially could be a starter? The 2025 season? 

There are people who feel differently, and maybe they will prove to be correct, but there’s been a laundry list of guys hyped to go in the back end of the first round for these reasons, and it just hasn’t happened.

Bryce Young and Will Levis to be first two quarterbacks selected +160 (bet $10 to win $26 total)

It appears Bryce Young will be the No. 1 pick, but who wants to lay -1000 or so on that? 

Word is Will Levis is in play to be the second QB selected. Maybe he'll go to the Colts at No. 4? Is he a project? Yes. But Anthony Richardson is a bigger project. I’m not quite sure if I buy all the criticism of C.J. Stroud, but it does appear as if we’re at a point where there’s a good chance Levis is QB2.  

Another twist on this bet is the ability to lay -175 and play Levis in a head-to-head with Richardson. That provides a bit of a cushion if you think Stroud is QB2 and you feel strongly — as I do — that Levis will go before Richardson. 

Sammy P

The biggest riser on odds boards for this upcoming draft in betting circles is Texas Tech edge rusher, Tyree Wilson.

The latest FOX Sports mock has Wilson going seventh to the Las Vegas Raiders with the No. 7 pick.

"The Raiders pass on Will Levis for a young pass-rusher to pair with Maxx Crosby," FOX Sports NFL analyst Geoff Schwartz wrote. "In a division featuring Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert and Russell Wilson, having players who can hit the quarterback is a premium."

However, many sportsbooks now believe that the seventh pick is far too low for the edge rusher, a position highly coveted in the league. 

Multiple connections are humming about Wilson's size and strength, and it makes total sense. It's not every day that you see a 6-foot-6, 270-pound monster leap off the film as he does. One source told me yesterday I shouldn't be surprised if Wilson went second overall. 

I'm not exactly there, but it's not impossible. 

Wilson has been bet from 20-1 to 7-1 to be the second overall pick at multiple sportsbooks, and that's nothing to bat your eyes at. I prefer the markets like Wilson to be a top-five pick at 3-1 or be the first defensive player off the board at 7-1. His upside is very tough to ignore, and league insiders like Daniel Jeremiah have chronicled his recent rise. 

FanDuel is currently dealing Wilson and Alabama star Will Anderson at +200 to be the fifth overall pick, which also speaks volumes. Many mock pundits believe Anderson is the best defensive prospect in the draft, yet his stock in the betting markets is trending in the wrong direction. 

Sure, you need a quarterback to win in the modern-day NFL, but I'm just not sold that there are multiple superstars in this specific class. And neither is the betting market.

There's no need to reach for a quarterback when guys like Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Shedeur Sanders and Quinn Ewers are all waiting in the wings next year. 

I still believe there's solid value in Wilson going top five at 3-1.

As always, I like to put my money where my mouth is.

Geoff Schwartz

Total offensive linemen selected in first round: Under 5.5 — +350 (bet $10 to win $45 total)

There are four offensive linemen who are locks to be drafted in the first round — Northwestern’s Peter Skoronski, Ohio State’s Paris Johnson, Georgia’s Broderick Jones and Tennessee’s Darnell Wright. These are the four offensive linemen I expect to have first-round grades, although those grades might vary. 

All four can play offensive tackle, a position more valued early in the draft than offensive guard. Other offensive linemen that might have first-round grades are TCU’s Steve Avlia and Florida’s O’Cyrus Torrence, and they're both guards. It's rare that centers get drafted in the first round, and I don't see any who are good enough and who have top grades. If we follow the logic that the four top linemen are drafted first and most likely within the top 20, where would the next two guards be drafted for this wager to go Over? 

You’d have to look toward Dallas, Buffalo or maybe the Eagles. However, both the Cowboys and Bills have other pressing needs and the Eagles could have selected a lineman with the 10th pick, their first of the round. 

Plus money for this wager is fantastic. 

C.J. Stroud fifth overall pick: +800 (bet $10 to win $90 total)

This is how draft night will go: Bryce Young is going to the Panthers, then two defensive linemen will come off the board with the second and third picks. Next will be Will Levis to the Colts. That’s the wagering consensus 24 hours before the start of the NFL Draft. 

If the draft does follow this pattern, Stroud will be available with the fifth pick, and someone will draft him in this slot. That someone could be the Seahawks, a team that's in the market for a future franchise quarterback after giving current quarterback Geno Smith what amounts to a one-year deal. Most likely, a team will see that the Buckeye is available at five, and they'll call the war room to make a deal with Seattle. 

The Seahawks would gladly move back to add more draft capital to a team that made the playoffs last season and already has a second, first-round draft pick. Love the value here. 

Chiefs' position of first player drafted: Defensive lineman/Edge — +200 (bet $10 to win $30 total)

This wager is based on how I believe the draft will break and the idea that teams will draft based on need or best player available. 

The Chiefs are drafting with the 31st pick — the final selection of the first round. They'll have the option of a wide receiver, tight end or defensive end/pass rusher. Based on analysis of experts who cover the draft, there should be far more defensive linemen with draft grades fitting of the 31st pick than, say, pick 63. 

If K.C. does not draft a pass rusher at 31, the team probably won’t be grabbing one at 63 either, as other players should have higher draft grades. The Chiefs with a selection of a pass rusher at No. 31, followed by a pass catcher at No. 63 would improve their roster far more than a pass catcher at 31 and whatever else they’d do at 63. 

That’s a long-winded way to say I think the Chiefs address pass rush at the 31st pick. 

Jason McIntyre

Tight ends drafted in first round Over 2.5 +198

I usually lean toward Unders in the first round, as the public likes to bet Overs and the mock drafters are usually wrong. But there’s a credible argument that more tight ends will go in the first round than wide receivers. 

Michael Mayer of Notre Dame came in with the most hype, and he may not even be the first to go, as Utah’s Dalton Kincaid has surged during the draft process. The wild card is Georgia’s Darnell Washington. A 6-foot-7, 260-pounder, he’s a terrific blocker, but his stats (45 career receptions, only three TDs) are paltry. 

Several teams drafting late in the first round love to utilize the tight end – LA Chargers, Dallas Cowboys, Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, and Super Bowl combatants Eagles and Chiefs.

Quarterbacks drafted in the first round Over 4.5 -106

We know Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud for sure will go early. Will Levis and Anthony Richardson have a higher range of outcomes, anywhere from No. 2 to … maybe the teens? But it seems very unlikely that one of them will tumble out of the first round. 

But can Hendon Hooker sneak in? 

[Where will Tennessee's Hendon Hooker get selected?] 

With Miami forfeiting a pick, there are only 31 picks in the first round. Who could be in the market? If Seattle doesn’t draft one at No. 5, they might at 20. There’s a lot of uncertainty around Washington at 16, Detroit at 18 (if it passes at six), perhaps Baltimore at 22 if the Lamar Jackson situation gets uglier, and Minnesota at 23, with Kirk Cousins having an out in his deal after this season.

Jalen Carter second pick to Houston +4000

There are two ways to look at this. First, Carter was a dominant force on Georgia’s historically great 2021 defense. Based on his 2022 video, Carter is considered to be the best defensive player in this draft. But he’s tumbled down some draft boards because of off-field concerns. And the last thing the Texans need is to draft someone with character issues, right? 

Except that their new coach is a tough defensive guy in DeMeco Ryans, who was part of a culture in San Francisco that was led by its defense, especially in the trenches. Houston bolstered the front four this offseason, adding pass rusher Chase Winovich and tackle Sheldon Rankins. But three starters on the defensive front are essentially placeholders.

Now, let's look at the betting favorites and odds for the top half of the draft:

Bryce Young No. 1 overall: -10000 (bet $10 to win $10.10 total)
Will Anderson No. 2 overall: -200 (bet $10 to win $15 total)
C.J. Stroud No. 3 overall: +115 (bet $10 to win $40 total)
Will Levis No. 4 overall: -110 (bet $10 to win $19.09 total)
Jalen Carter No. 5 overall: -145 (bet $10 to win $16.90 total)

Other notable names:

Anthony Richardson to be drafted in top 5: -110 (bet $10 to win $19.09 total)
Bijan Robinson No. 8 overall: +250 (bet $10 to win $35 total)
Hendon Hooker Over/Under 30.5: -190 (bet $10 to win $15.26 total)
Stetson Bennett to get drafted in Round 7: +300 (bet $10 to win $40 total)

*Immediately before the beginning of the draft, C.J. Stroud's odds to go No. 2 shortened drastically to -4000. Jalen Carter's odds to get drafted fifth also shortened ahead of the big night to -700.

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