2023 Miami Dolphins Over/Under win total odds, predictions, picks

By Henry McKenna and Jason McIntyre
Published

With the NFL season set to begin, FOX Sports gambling experts and NFL writers are looking at the Over/Under for every team in the league. Check back daily to see predictions on where your team will finish the regular season!

September's presence, mere days away, and the air turning crisp can only mean one thing … NFL football is back, baby!

Now that sportsbooks have dropped Over/Under win totals for every team in the league, it's time to dive into the fun and look at the numbers from a betting perspective.

Can the Miami Dolphins eclipse their win total of 9.5?

Here is how our FOX Sports talent sees the Dolphins' season playing out.

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Jason McIntyre: Dolphins Over 9.5 wins

Every year, I’ll take a chance on some alternative win totals — where you can take the Over 10.5 for plus money. The Dolphins are one of those teams, given how potentially great they can be if quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is healthy. They went 8-3 in games he started and finished, but things didn’t go as well with Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson.

The defense should be improved under Vic Fangio; the offensive line can only improve. Having to play three of their first four games on the road, including games against Justin Herbert, Bill Belichick and Josh Allen, puts them in a tough spot, as does closing the season against three teams expected to be jockeying for playoff predictions — Dallas, Baltimore and Buffalo. You ultimately either trust Tua’s health or you don’t.

Pick via FOX Sports AFC East Reporter Henry McKenna: Dolphins Over 9.5 wins

They are a really good team with talent at just about every premium position. The only question is Tua Tagovailoa’s health — and, to a lesser degree, the strength of Mike McDaniel’s system. 

There were some questions about whether opposing defenses figured out how to stop Tua. But I think he can stay healthy this year, and Miami can win 10 games.

FOX Sports Research Nuggets

  • 4-5-4 (Over-Under-Push) since 2010
  • Looking to win 10 games for the second time in the last four seasons
  • Have gone 9-8 in each of the last two seasons

2022 In Review

  • Overall: 9-8, second in AFC East
  • Home record: 6-2
  • Road record: 3-6
  • Divisional record: 3-3
  • Point differential: -2 (14th in NFL)
  • Points per game: 23.4 (11th in NFL)
  • Yards per game: 364.5 (sixth in NFL)
  • Opponent points per game: 23.5 (24th in NFL)
  • Opponent yards per game: 337.8 (18th in NFL)
https://statics.foxsports.com/static/orion/player-embed.html?id=play-69b201b4000102c&image=https://static-media.fox.com/ms/stg1/sports/play-69b201b4000102c--a_1693254149269.jpg&props=eyJwYWdlX25hbWUiOiJmc2NvbTpzdG9yaWVzOm5mbDoyMDIzIE1pYW1pIERvbHBoaW5zIE92ZXIvVW5kZXIgd2luIHRvdGFsIG9kZHMsIHByZWRpY3Rpb25zLCBwaWNrcyIsInBhZ2VfY29udGVudF9kaXN0cmlidXRvciI6ImFtcCIsInBhZ2VfdHlwZSI6InN0b3JpZXM6YXJ0aWNsZXMifQ== Loading Video…

This browser does not support the Video element.

What to Know

  • Head Coach: Mike McDaniel, second season (9-8 with Dolphins)
  • 2023 Strength of Schedule: .554 (second-hardest in NFL)

Key Additions

Key Subtractions

Win Totals From Last 5 Years

  • 2022: 9
  • 2021: 9
  • 2020: 10
  • 2019: 5
  • 2018: 7

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst who also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead. Follow him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.

Prior to joining FOX Sports as the AFC East reporter, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.

Read More: