2023 Jacksonville Jaguars Over/Under win total odds, predictions, picks

By Ben Arthur and Geoff Schwartz
Published

With the NFL season set to begin, FOX Sports gambling experts and NFL writers are looking at the Over/Under for every team in the league. Check back daily to see predictions on where your team will finish the regular season!

September's presence, mere days away, and the air turning crisp can only mean one thing … NFL football is back, baby!

Now that sportsbooks have dropped Over/Under win totals for every team in the league, it's time to dive into the fun and look at the numbers from a betting perspective.

Can the Jacksonville Jaguars eclipse their win total of 9.5?

Here is how our FOX Sports talent sees the Jaguars' season playing out.

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Geoff Schwartz: Jaguars Over 9.5 wins

The Jaguars going over their win total is my favorite win total wager heading into the 2023 season. Jacksonville won nine games last season in the first season of the Trevor Lawrence-Doug Pederson pairing. We see quarterbacks (and their teams) often make huge jumps in Year 2. Yes, Lawrence is heading into his third NFL season, but we need to toss his rookie year because of his poor coaching situation. The Jaguars have an improved roster, adding players like Calvin Ridley and Anton Harrison to the offense, which should help Lawrence skyrocket into the conversation as a Tier 1 quarterback.

Maybe most important to the discussion about their win total is the Jaguars' schedule. Instead of looking at the traditional win percentage of their future opponents, we should look at the quarterbacks they are facing. Yes, Jacksonville faces stiff tests against Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson, but all of those games are at "home." The Jaguars also go to New Orleans to face Derek Carr and have a December game in Cleveland. Other than that, the bulk of the schedule is full of Desmond Ridder, Bryce Young, Baker Mayfield and whoever is playing quarterback for the rest of the divisional opponents. 

The Jags are going to win 11 games, so I’ll take the Over 9.5.

Pick via FOX Sports AFC South Reporter Ben Arthur: Jaguars Over 9.5 wins

The Jaguars are positioned to continue ascending into an elite force in the AFC. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence, entering Year 3, is expected to have a breakout campaign in his second season with coach Doug Pederson, who has changed the culture in Jacksonville. 

Then there’s Calvin Ridley getting added into the mix of an offense returning nine starters. If Travon Walker, last year’s No. 1 overall pick, makes the leap to becoming a dominant pass rusher, the Jaguars are a team with few flaws on either side of the ball. 

FOX Sports Research Nuggets

  • 3-10 (Over-Under) since 2010
  • Have hit the Under 77% of the time since 2010, tied for the highest of any team in that span
  • Since winning 10 games in 2017, has yet to do so again (won nine games last season)

2022 In Review

  • Overall: 9-8, first in AFC South
  • Home record: 5-3
  • Road record: 4-5
  • Divisional record: 4-2
  • Point differential: +54 (seventh in NFL)
  • Points per game: 23.8 (10th in NFL)
  • Yards per game: 357.4 (10th in NFL)
  • Opponent points per game: 20.6 (12th in NFL)
  • Opponent yards per game: 353.3 (24th in NFL)
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Nick Wright and Chris Broussard share their AFC North predictions, including why the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers are their front-runners.

What to Know

  • Head Coach: Doug Pederson, second season (9-8 with Jaguars)
  • 2023 Strength of Schedule: .477 (10th-easiest in NFL)

Key Additions

Key Subtractions

Win Totals From Last 5 Years

  • 2022: 9
  • 2021: 3
  • 2020: 1
  • 2019: 6
  • 2018: 5

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

Ben Arthur is the AFC South reporter for FOX Sports. He previously worked for The Tennessean/USA TODAY Network, where he was the Titans beat writer for a year and a half. He covered the Seattle Seahawks for SeattlePI.com for three seasons (2018-20) prior to moving to Tennessee. You can follow Ben on Twitter at @benyarthur.

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