2023-24 NFL odds: Best wild-card bets, including Chiefs-Dolphins total, Bucs to cover

Wild card weekend is upon us! 

Twelve teams, six games over three days of NFL action — there’s no better weekend on the NFL slate. 

With playoff games come tighter lines and fewer options for wagers, with only a handful of games. Nonetheless, I’ve found three wagers I like for this weekend.  

Let's dive into my best bets for the wild-card round.

Miami Dolphins @ Kansas City Chiefs (8 p.m. ET Saturday, Peacock)

A Chiefs game total has not gone over 44 points since they lost to the Packers six weeks ago. The 27 points the Chiefs allowed in that game was a season high for a K.C. defense that’s Super Bowl caliber. Chiefs games have gone Under because their offense has been stuck in the mud for months and, while everyone defaults to "The Chiefs offense will figure it out with Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid," the evidence would point to that not happening. Drops, inconsistency in protection and injuries aren’t changing now. 

What does help the Chiefs offense is the Dolphins missing the majority of their roster at edge rusher, but I'm not sure if it’s enough to add an extra touchdown to the Chiefs.

The Dolphins are going to struggle to score in this game. For starters, the weather is miserable for Saturday night. Temperatures with wind chill in the negatives does not bode well for the Dolphins passing attack. Tua Tagovailoa is not a quarterback with a powerful arm that can cut through wind like some of his peers. They will need to rely on the ground game which eats clock. 

Also worth noting, the Dolphins offense only scored 14 points against the Chiefs in their first contest this season. 

I like the Under to hit in this game.

PICK: Under 44 points scored by both teams combined

Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8:15 p.m. ET Monday, ABC/ESPN)

The Eagles are not playing good football right now. 

They started the season 10-1 and finished 11-6, with a less than stellar first half against the Giants on Sunday. The Eagles were attempting to play well and were down 24-0 at halftime. Their offense is beat up and has regressed this season with a new play-caller. 

Philly's defense is also bad. It is 29th in defensive DVOA, as it enters the playoffs having just allowed an endless amount of yards to the Cardinals and Giants. Unfortunately, there’s no easy fix for any of the Eagles' issues. You are what your record is, and you are what the film is showing each week.  

Tampa Bay is 18th in team DVOA after winning the NFC South on Sunday. Its last two games don’t instill much confidence about its performance at the moment, but Tampa has shown the ability to have an explosive play offense with Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans. The Bucs' young offensive line has improved throughout the season and the defense is solid. And a solid defense can give the Eagles fits if their injuries continue to hurt the receiving core. 

I like the Bucs to cover.  

PICK: Buccaneers (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points (or win outright) 

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

The forecast for the Steelers game in Buffalo on Sunday calls for wind speeds in excess of 50 miles per hour. It is nearly impossible to pass the ball in those conditions unless you have a cannon attached to your arm. 

Mason Rudolph does not have said cannon. 

The Steelers passing attack is already so-so, and now you add in weather? Count me out for Rudolph having success in this game. 

Also worth noting: After struggling through some injuries, the Bills defense has stabilized itself during this winning streak to end the season. Its improved play will help slow down the Steelers passing attack.  

PICK: Mason Rudolph Under 161.5 passing yards 

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz