2022 NFL rookie QB class living down to expectations

By Greg Auman
Published

Technically, the top two quarterbacks in this year's NFL Draft will go head-to-head this weekend, but you'd never know it.

This was predicted to be a weak rookie quarterback class, and we're starting to see why the league's teams — normally starving for promising passers at the top of the draft — took just one in the first two rounds. Rookie quarterbacks have combined for a total of eight touchdown passes in 2022, on course to be five times lower than the NFL average of 73.9 per year over the previous decade.

Don't write these guys off long term just yet: The last time a class of rookie quarterbacks had this few touchdown passes was 2000, when the entire league had four, led by Falcons great Doug Johnson. Some sixth-round pick with the Patriots mustered one completion all season and ended up playing well.

Still, it's certainly underwhelming to note that the Steelers and first-round pick Kenny Pickett will be in Atlanta on Sunday to face the Falcons, whose backup quarterback, Desmond Ridder, was the second quarterback taken (in the third round, 74th overall) but hasn't played a snap, stuck behind Marcus Mariota.

Mariota has 14 touchdowns in 12 games as part of the league's No. 31 pass offense, but the Falcons have remained in contention in a bad NFC South, so coach Arthur Smith has resisted the temptation to hand the keys over to the rookie and see what he can do.

Pickett, the first quarterback drafted and the only one with an extended stretch as a starter, has had a quiet start to his NFL career, with three touchdown passes in seven starts, along with three touchdown runs. You could argue he's the only rookie quarterback with any clear path to a starting job in 2023, with all the others behind established veterans or with teams that could simply draft another quarterback much higher in April.

Last year's rookies, still a pedestrian group led by the Patriots' Mac Jones and the Texans' Davis Mills, combined for 79 touchdowns, and other recent classes have simply played much more. The 2019 class, which combined for 106 touchdowns, had 10 rookies start at least three games. This season aside, the constant search for elite quarterbacks has made NFL teams overdraft the position high in the first round, and that large investment results in immediate and significant playing time.

Go back to even quarterback classes that are infamously bad, and the stats still dwarf this year's rookies. Consider 2013, which produced almost no long-term starters unless you count comeback star Geno Smith — with Mike Glennon, Smith and E.J. Manuel leading the way, those rookies combined for 63 touchdowns. This year's class will need a strong finish just to match the 2007 class, which mustered 16 touchdown passes, led by Bills rookie Trent Edwards' seven, well ahead of No. 1 overall pick JaMarcus Russell, who made one start and had two touchdowns for the Raiders that season.

Why have this year's rookies produced so little? Only 10 QBs were drafted, and of those, only five have even played this season. Even if you open it up to count first-year players — those making their NFL debuts but not in their first year out of college — that only adds one more touchdown pass, from the Rams' Bryce Perkins this past weekend.

It's part lack of talent, part circumstances, and even part injuries. Third-round pick Matt Corral would almost certainly have gotten to play with the Panthers, but he suffered a season-ending foot injury in preseason. 

Others have had chances with spot starts and not done enough to keep the job. New England's Bailey Zappe made two starts when Jones was hurt and threw three touchdowns in Patriots wins, but still went back to the bench. Zappe has five of the eight touchdown passes by rookies this season. Tennessee's Malik Willis had two starts when Ryan Tannehill was injured, but threw for a combined 135 yards without a touchdown and returned to the bench once Tannehill was healthy.

It might only take a few losses for the Falcons to fall out of contention and convince Atlanta to sample what they have in Ridder, but aside from Pickett, the rest of the rookie class would need an injury to get on the field, with the Patriots and Titans in good position to make the playoffs with more experienced starters.

The lack of contributions from the 2022 draft class could raise the demand for quarterbacks at the top of the 2023 draft even higher, with Alabama's Bryce Young and Ohio State's C.J. Stroud projected as top-five picks, and others like Kentucky's Will Levis likely going in the first round. On those alone, there's little chance the league will have fewer than 10 touchdown passes from the rookie quarterbacks when December rolls around next season.

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Greg Auman is FOX Sports’ NFC South reporter, covering the Buccaneers, Falcons, Panthers and Saints. He is in his 10th season covering the Bucs and the NFL full-time, having spent time at the Tampa Bay Times and The Athletic. You can follow him on Twitter at @gregauman.