2017 NFL Draft: Midseason Look at the San Francisco 49ers Needs
The 1-6 San Francisco 49ers hit their Week 8 bye amid questions of a talentless roster and speculation what the franchise needs moving forward. Niner Noise evaluates the team’s NFL Draft needs, which will be of utmost importance in 2017.
October 23, 2016; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers general manager Trent Baalke before the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Levi’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
Where have you heard this before — pick a position and, chances are, the San Francisco 49ers need an upgrade there.
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It’s the same argument made prior to the 2016 offseason, which followed a dull and boring 2015 campaign in which the Niners finished 5-11 and ranked at, or near the bottom of, nearly every significant offensive and defensive category.
Now-head coach Chip Kelly’s 49ers may actually be worse than what former head coach Jim Tomsula fielded a season ago. The 1-6 record certainly suggests so. And the fact this franchise has almost zero playmaking talent on either side of the ball points a big glaring finger at general manager Trent Baalke.
We can talk for days about how bad San Francisco is. And we can blame Baalke all we want. The problem is the argument has become redundant. It doesn’t get us any further.
Instead, let’s look forward.
The 2017 NFL Draft is a ways away. And yet it can’t get here soon enough. Sadly, unlike years from not long ago, the Niners are in need of major upgrades at almost every position.
Well, we can argue they’re in need of upgrades at every position. Yeah, it’s that bad.
So let’s break this down on a position-by-position basis and see how and why San Francisco needs an infusion of reinforcements come draft day.
Oct 23, 2016; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers kicker Phil Dawson (4) kicks a field goal against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the fourth quarter at Levi’s Stadium. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defeated the San Francisco 49ers 34-17. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
Special Teams
Nope, not even special teams is safe.
We think of special teams focusing on just kickers, punters and return men. There are question marks there.
Sure, punter Bradley Pinion isn’t going anywhere. But kicker Phil Dawson is 41 years old. The sad part is he’s one of the few reliable offensive scorers San Francisco has.
Who knows if he’ll be around, let alone playing, once his final year with the 49ers is over in January. So that’s a need, albeit one which shouldn’t be touched with a draft pick.
As far as returners go, the Niners do have Bruce Ellington on injured reserve. And wide receiver Jeremy Kerley is there right now.
But more intriguing, or problematic, is the fact opposing teams are averaging a drive start on their own 32.1-yard line, which is worst in the NFL.
Gunners and coverage, anyone?
Sep 12, 2016; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers right cornerback Jimmie Ward (25) and cornerback Rashard Robinson (33) reacts in the game against the San Francisco 49ers in the third quarter at Levi’s Stadium. The 49ers won 28-0. Mandatory Credit: John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports
The Defensive Backfield
So much for all of general manager Trent Baalke’s efforts to make the 49ers secondary elite.
In 2013, the Niners drafted safety Eric Reid in Round 1. 2014 saw the addition of defensive back Jimmie Ward. San Francisco landed fellow safety Jaquiski Tartt in Round 2 of the 2015 NFL Draft, and three more cornerbacks — Will Redmond, Rashard Robinson and Prince Charles Iworah — joined the fray in 2016.
Out of that group, Ward and Robinson look as if they’re the only long-term fixtures here.
Reid was named to the Pro Bowl just once, his rookie season as an alternate, and looks more as an above-average player at best right now. Fellow safety Antoine Bethea is 32 years old and isn’t a long-term option.
And will Tartt ever make the jump from an average reserve to a legitimate starting option? It hasn’t happened yet, and not because he has players in the way.
No, San Francisco’s secondary isn’t much better than it was when Baalke started loading up on defensive backs in 2013.
Oct 23, 2016; Santa Clara, CA, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston (3) carries the ball ahead of San Francisco 49ers outside linebacker Aaron Lynch (59) during the second quarter at Levi’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
Linebackers
A unit which once consisted of linebackers Patrick Willis, NaVorro Bowman and Aldon Smith is now comprised of Michael Wilhoite, Gerald Hodges, Nick Bellore and Ahmad Brooks.
Just ask any non-49ers fan from around the league who the latter players are, and you’ll likely get a “who?” answer.
Bowman will return from his Achilles injury, and the team can hope for third-year pro Aaron Lynch to emerge as a dominant pass-rusher. The problem is we’re in year three of his development now, and the leap from an OK edge defender to an elite player hasn’t come close to happening.
Against the ground attack, San Francisco’s run defense now ranks dead last with an average of 185.14 yards allowed per game. And the Niners pass rush is tied for 19th with just 13 sacks.
Be it on the edge or up the middle, the 49ers are in desperate need of linebackers who can tackle, provide coverage and rush the passer.
Too bad only a handful of rookie prospects ever exist each year who can fill all three needs.
Oct 16, 2016; Orchard Park, NY, USA; San Francisco 49ers defensive end Arik Armstead (91) tries to block a pass by Buffalo Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor (5) during the first half at New Era Field. Mandatory Credit: Timothy T. Ludwig-USA TODAY Sports
Defensive Line
Remember all the talk about how San Francisco’s defensive line was going to be one of the few strengths the team had entering 2016?
Defensive ends Arik Armstead and DeForest Buckner were supposed to be the bookends instilling fear into opponents on a weekly basis. And defensive tackle Quinton Dial was supposed to be the nice complementary piece to shore up the middle.
Here’s your results — Football Outsiders ranks the Niners D-line No. 18 against the pass and No. 29 against the run.
So much for upgrades.
As mentioned on the previous slide, San Francisco can’t stop the run. And the D-line is a major problem behind this. Even Buckner and Armstead.
While it’s way too early to give up on these two, NFL Draft needs along the line aren’t absent altogether.
San Francisco will be looking for a run-stuffing defensive lineman at some point in the draft. The only question is who, when and at what value.
Oct 2, 2016; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers tackle Joe Staley (74) warms up prior to the game against the Dallas Cowboys at Levi’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports
Offensive Line
Just like the defensive line, the 49ers offensive line was supposed to be one of strength entering this season. The team added guard Joshua Garnett late in Round 1 and also tabbed tackles Fahn Cooper and John Theus on the third day of the draft.
Trent Brown secured the right tackle spot, and the Niners inked veteran guard Zane Beadles to a free-agent contract.
As Football Outsiders points out, these upgrades aren’t exactly working. The 49ers rank 19th in pass protection and a dreadful 31st in run blocking. Yes, even the dreadful Seattle Seahawks O-line is better in both categories.
Now, we can tack on rumors of veteran left tackle Joe Staley being dangled in the trade market.
A move makes sense for draft capital. But it doesn’t, if the 49ers are trying to land a franchise quarterback in the next year or so. A rookie QB needs all the protection he can get.
Just ask Alex Smith or David Carr.
It’s still too early to give up on Garnett, or even Brown for that matter. But avoiding this need altogether in the draft would be problematic at best.
October 23, 2016; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Torrey Smith (82) runs with the football against Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerback Brent Grimes (24) during the first quarter at Levi’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
Pass Catchers
We’ve lumped wide receivers and tight ends into one category because, well, the 49ers don’t exactly have anyone reliable who can regularly catch the ball.
OK, so wide receiver Torrey Smith is an option. And it’s hard to fault him not getting receptions, due to the lack of average-level quarterback play.
Oct 16, 2016; Orchard Park, NY, USA; San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Jeremy Kerley (17) during the game against the Buffalo Bills at New Era Field. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports
But anyone else?
It’s clear the Niners can’t rely on wideouts Quinton Patton and Bruce Ellington to be long-term fixtures. At what point do the 49ers give up on their respective developments? Maybe second-year DeAndre Smelter winds up being the first of general manager Trent Baalke’s “All-ACL team” to make the leap. But is San Francisco going to bank on it?
Yes, wideout Jeremy Kerley has been a nice slot option. So maybe that’s a find.
Still, there are more questions than answers here. And tight end? Well, Vance McDonald’s stone hands returned in Week 7.
Someone might have to convince Baalke to go after another receiver early in the draft and put the fear of another A.J. Jenkins behind him.
If Baalke’s still around, that is.
Oct 2, 2016; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Carlos Hyde (28) warms up prior to the game against the Dallas Cowboys at Levi’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports
Running Backs
On the surface, one might think running back is close to the bottom, in terms of 49ers’ NFL Draft needs.
Carlos Hyde has this role and should be a focal point moving forward. The problem is he’s missed over 40 percent of eligible games since being drafted in 2014 — all due to various injuries. He’s 25 years old too, and one has to wonder if those injuries will shorten an already questionable career.
Still, this isn’t the biggest priority San Francisco faces. At least not yet.
Backing Hyde up is the bigger question. Good NFL teams often have either a promising up-and-coming RB prospect waiting in the folds. Or they have a crafty veteran capable of spelling the No. 1 guy and giving opposing defenses a different look.
San Francisco doesn’t really have either.
Unless you’re counting on Shaun Draughn, Mike Davis and/or DuJuan Harris to suddenly break out.
So yes, running back remains a need in the NFL Draft.
Oct 2, 2016; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Blaine Gabbert (2) warms up with quarterback Colin Kaepernick (7) prior to the game against the Dallas Cowboys at Levi’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports
Quarterback
Ahh, the 49ers quarterback issue.
Blaine Gabbert didn’t cut it. Colin Kaepernick isn’t cutting it. And it looks as if Christian Ponder could be the next in line.
Problem solved? No.
The question isn’t whether or not San Francisco needs a franchise-type quarterback in the upcoming draft. It’s who, where and how the Niners go about getting one.
This might be a first-round question. Or maybe it’s a Round 2 issue, given all the pressing needs the 49ers have elsewhere. Remember, the Dallas Cowboys landed quarterback Dak Prescott in Round 4 of the 2016 NFL Draft. And that pick is looking as if it’s a steal.
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Who knows if the Niners go the same route — hoping to land a promising prospect, but one who slipped into the middle rounds.
Or, maybe, they use what promises to be a top-five pick on the next guy they want to be under center.
The position is of utmost significance. We know this. And yet the 49ers have far too many questions along the roster to make this a top priority. Heck, almost every position for San Francisco is of top priority in the upcoming draft.
Just shows how far the red and gold have fallen.