Will Nerlens Noel Play Minutes Enough To Impress NBA?

By Fansided and Bret Stuter/FanSided via The Sixer Sense
Published

Philadelphia 76ers Nerlens Noel is playing for his NBA life now. With limited games, playing minutes, and the fast approach of an NBA Trade Deadline, Will Nerlens Noel Play Enough Minutes to Impress the NBA?

There are holes. And then there are holes within holes. The Philadelphia 76ers are in a hole, trying to find a way to win 20 games or more in an 82 game season. Nerlens Noel is in a hole within that hole.

That’s just four games remaining in December, 15 games in January 2017, and just nine games in February 2017 before the February 23 Trade Deadline (3 p.m. ET). With his three game showing so far, he will have a total of 31 games with which to showcase his talents to an NBA audience which consists of fans, scouts, and team executives.

Complicating the matter is the perception by many NBA teams that Nerlens Noel’s conduct recently flags him as a risky prospect. In fact, per Adrian Wojnarowski from the Vertical, they discussed the matter. Adrian Wojnarowski on The Vertical Podcast with Woj:

Nerlens Noel in Philly, the research teams have done on him is not good. They don’t get good reports back on their intel, how he’s carried himself there, of his habits. It’s not a great return. So, there are teams willing to do deal and bring him in, but they don’t want to give up much.

In the end, NBA teams seek reasons to discount. The Philadelphia 76ers must prepare to be equally vigilant in finding reasons to seek a premium for Noel.

Dec 20, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; New Orleans Pelicans forward Terrence Jones (9) controls a loose ball past Philadelphia 76ers forward Nerlens Noel (4) during the second half at Wells Fargo Center. The New Orleans Pelicans won 108-93. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Looking Forward, Not Backwards

Without assigning blame to anyone (okay, if you want to assign blame, check out these articles:)

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the clear objective of both the Nerlens Noel aligned folks and the Philadelphia 76ers aligned folks have common interests now. Whether you are like Joel Embiid, and simply want to circle the wagons and see how Noel can complement the current roster, or you want to maximize Noel’s value, Noel needs playing time.

More from The Sixer Sense

    He’s a tad dinged up.  Noel’s also a tad out of NBA game shape. But most damaging, Noel is volatile. The very factors that Noel wants to disprove to the NBA are factors in why he is uncertain to get the opportunity to do so. And in the grand scheme, he has just 31 games to make something happen.

    It will certainly depend on the upcoming schedule

    Apr 5, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia 76ers head coach Brett Brown talks with forward Nerlens Noel (4) during the second quarter against the New Orleans Pelicans at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

    Schedule Favorable

    In the next two months, the Philadelphia 76ers will play consecutive games back to back on just six occasions. If Noel is up for significant minutes, that cold mean he would alternate 10 minutes in one game, and 20 minutes playing time in the other.  On 6 occasions, that would yield 180 minutes of playing time for the young center.

    Likewise, the team will take two road trips of four games each in that period as well.  Of those eight games, two are on back to back nights.  Just speculatively, let’s slide an average of 15 minutes onto Noel’s plate for the remaining travel games. Another 90 minutes.  So far, we have considered 18 games.  So for the remaining 13 games, let’s assume he averages 12 minutes a game.  That’s an additional 156 minutes.

    In the end, we have 180 minutes, 90 minutes, and 136 minutes to layer onto his current total of 25 minutes for the season.  That is 431 minutes before the trade deadline out of the possible 2,832 minutes to play at the center position. In the 2015-2016 season, he had played 442 minutes by Thanksgiving.

    Jan 16, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia 76ers center Nerlens Noel (4) reacts with head coach Brett Brown after his score during the first quarter at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

    No Time Like The Present

    Of course, the key to all of this is the upcoming west coast road trip. For Noel to have a hope of landing 400 plus minutes playing time before the NBA trade deadline, he will need to get 60 or so minutes out of the next four games.

    With the recent endorsement of Joel Embiid, Noel may find an uptick of his playing time.  And with the next four games against the Phoenix Suns, the Sacramento Kings, the Utah Jazz, and the Denver Nuggets, sporting a combined 50-67 record, Noel will be quite eager to get time on the basketball court.

    Still, if he fails to get 60 minutes on this road trip, his playing time could quickly erode to 300 minutes or less. At that amount of playing time, any prospective NBA teams would need to load reels of his 2015-2016 season to see enough film to gauge their interest in him.

    Mar 20, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia 76ers head coach Brett Brown reacts to a basket by Philadelphia 76ers center Nerlens Noel (not pictured) during the first quarter of the game against the New York Knicks at the Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: John Geliebter-USA TODAY Sports

    Quality over Quantity rules still apply

    While Noel is fighting the battle of quantity playing minutes via the media, his real fight is getting quality minutes. Shooting guard Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot is getting playing time, but at a level which equates to an NBA scrimmage. Noel needs competitive minutes, in competitive games.  But right now, it’s Noel who needs to catch up to the team in terms of the playbook, game shape, and competitive hunger.

    Philadelphia 76ers head coach Brett Brown is neither vindictive nor foolish. He understands that the most recent game in the NBA carries untold weighting. Noel just wants to play. Brown wants Noel to play well.

    And so the onus remains on Noel to learn the playbook and know it instinctively. Noel must get himself up to playing shape.  Noel’s desire to play cannot take a higher priority than the team’s best five at any given moment. Coming off injury, solitude, and emotional outbursts, Noel does not represent one of the best five for many scenarios.

    Dec 14, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid (21) and forward Nerlens Noel (M) and forward Ben Simmons (R) during a timeout in the second half against the Toronto Raptors at Wells Fargo Center. The Toronto Raptors won 123.114. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

    Prepare For Deep Discount or Impasse

    The conflict has run its course. Options to resolve the matter are now few and far between.  For now, the Philadelphia 76ers still have the ultimate ace in hand to play: the qualifying offer.  That would essentially ensure that some new NBA suitor for Noel’s services next year pay at or near fair market value, or the 76ers will simply match it and retain his services.

    It may very well come to that.

    For now, some NBA teams need help, but the current volatility has scared teams off to date.  I fear that too few will enter the bidding war at the trade deadline now to give value.  Colangelo has painted himself and the team into a corner on this one, and may be forced to retain Noel. Worse yet, Colangelo’s failure to act has painted coach Brown into the same no-win situation:

    Joel Embiid’s endorsement was well timed.  His comments have offered an out to all parties, a back door to save face and frame the probable retention of Noel as a grand experiment to gauge the compatibility of Noel/Embiid.  It may actually work.

    Whatever happens, don’t expect multiple picks and NBA starters packaged to wrest Noel from the Philadelphia 76ers now. In fact, with limited minutes, no offer may come. Trust The Process, Philadelphia 76ers fans. What “feels” like a bad situation now can turn around rather quickly.

    Joel Embiid sees a light at the end of the tunnel. And he is”The Process” now.  I for one trust him.