Why the winner of Clippers-Jazz (and not the Nets) will win the NBA title

By Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

The Brooklyn Nets are substantial betting favorites to hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy as champions of the 2020-21 NBA season.

Brooklyn certainly passes the playoff eye test so far, considering how it dismantled the Boston Celtics and toyed with the Milwaukee Bucks in two games without James Harden. But Brooklyn’s betting odds are ridiculous at this point. FOX Bet currently has the Nets at +110 to win the title (a $10 bet wins $11, plus your $10 back). 

Dealing a team at +110 when there are still two rounds of playoffs remaining is ludicrous. It implies that almost 50% of the time, that team will win the championship, despite this team's still needing to finish off Milwaukee, win the Eastern Conference finals and beat the winner of the Western Conference in the NBA Finals. Sportsbooks clearly don’t want to write any more bets on the Nets amid all the liability that has built up over the past six months. (Remember, they were 10-to-1 or higher before acquiring Harden.)

There is minimal, if any, betting value at +110. Luckily for you, there are two other teams that have pretty enticing odds in the futures market.

I’m already long on the Utah Jazz at 10-to-1 from a position back in mid-April. My thoughts on the Jazz, a complete basketball team that possesses the luxury of home-court advantage throughout the postseason, haven’t changed over the past eight weeks:

"If I were taking a flier at this point in the season, it would be on Utah (+1000 at FOX Bet, so a $10 wager wins you $100, plus your $10 back).

"The Jazz play an unselfish style of ball, with six players who score in double figures. They have the best defensive player in the league and a cold-blooded killer who wants the ball in his hands with the game on the line. Rudy Gobert's impact can neutralize Anthony Davis and turn the Lakers into a team that will need to make 3-pointers to advance."

I must admit: I didn’t forecast the Los Angeles Lakers turning into a pumpkin in the first round. Davis’ injury completely ruined any chance the Lakers had of escaping that series. It’s about time LeBron James got bounced early, though. Part of me lit up on the inside when James walked off the floor without shaking hands with anybody from the Suns sideline.

Still, the logic holds. Belief in the Jazz is belief in their defensive acumen and their ability to limit second-chance opportunities. Gobert is the best defender on the planet and the biggest weapon for head coach Quin Snyder’s defense.

I would love to see Utah match up with Brooklyn in a best-of-seven series. Donovan Mitchell and Kyrie Irving would essentially have similar impacts and stat lines. Kevin Durant is impossible to contain, but the Jazz have the personnel to body him and double him. And he won’t be running free to the rim – as he has done against Boston and Milwaukee – with Gobert waiting in the paint. We also have no idea how healthy Harden is or how effective he’ll be the rest of the playoffs with that right hamstring injury.

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FOX Bet has the Jazz at +350 right now to win the title, so a $100 bet wins $350 and pays out $450. Obviously, I love my +1000 price way more, but you could still argue that +350 has relative value, given the Nets’ recent dominance.

The other team that is really, really interesting is the LA Clippers. They were rather "Jekyll and Hyde" in their first-round series against Luka Dončić and the Dallas Mavericks, but they survived and advanced.

Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are superstar wings who can dominate on both ends of the floor. I love to give credit where credit is due, and Ty Lue deserves a ton for the adjustments he made against Dallas. Getting Ivica Zubac off the floor and giving more minutes to Terance Mann was checkmate.

Conventional wisdom will tell you that a team that needs seven games to win its first-round series won’t win a championship. But the Clippers felt like a bear that needed to be awakened with a whirring bop on the nose.

As the Clips led the Mavericks by eight at halftime of Game 7, a thought popped into my head: They could lose today or win the championship. Seriously. That roster is good enough to win the title. It just has to bring the urgency earlier in the series. After all, as they say, hard work beats talent when talent doesn’t work hard.

FOX Bet has the Clippers at +500 to win the title (bet $10 to collect $60 total). Think about that. Even though Utah and LA play each other this round, they both have better championship odds than Phoenix. The respect is real.

I will continue to fade the Nets noise because I don’t think they’ve been tested yet, it’s far from a sure thing that they will breeze through whichever team comes out of the West, and it’s worth repeating how ridiculous their title odds are at +110. There will come a time when Brooklyn needs to get pivotal stops in this postseason, and we still don’t know if that team is up to the task. It’s fun to run up and down the floor against inferior competition, but let’s see what happens against a team such as Utah or LA. 

Splitting a unit on the Jazz (+350) and Clippers (+500) is the move for me. 

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.