Why the Miami Heat could win the NBA title
Ahead of the NBA playoffs, FOX Sports will find the best-case scenario for all 16 qualified teams and make the case for why each could win the title, no matter how improbable it might be.
The Heat looked nothing like title contenders before the All-Star break. There were a few flashes of strong play here and there, sure, and Miami was certainly going to be a playoff team, but Erik Spoelstra's team looked a class below the best teams in the Eastern Conference, the Cavs and Raptors.
When Chris Bosh was shelved in February with a reoccurrence of blood clots, it took the Heat's best player out of the lineup, and Miami had to re-adjust.
That adjustment has made the Heat a legitimate title contender.
Two moves have put the Heat in that position: signing Joe Johnson and sliding Luol Deng up to power forward.
In combination, the changes have allowed the Heat to move to a dribble-drive motion offense. Pace has gone up (from 29th in the league before the All-Star break), as has scoring (second to only the Warriors in field goals made and first in percentage over the last two months), and because of that, the Heat have the 5th most wins in the NBA after the All-Star Game.
The Heat, whose smallball lineups with LeBron James were a clear predecessor to the pace-and-space revolution, went from antiquated to modern in a moment. Johnson, along with the surprising emergence of rookie Josh Richardson, gave the Heat the 3-point shooter it desperately needed to compete (Dwyane Wade has made only seven 3-pointers this season) and Deng's rebirth as a stretch 4 has the Heat playing with swagger heading into what should be a wide-open Eastern Conference playoffs.
Bosh is unlikely to return this season, but the Heat can take solace that the team's four best lineups this season in terms of net rating don't include the All-Star big man.
No team has played more tight games down the stretch than the Miami Heat. Since the All-Star Game, they've played in 14 games that featured "clutch" situations (within five points in the last five minutes) and no team has averaged more time in the danger zone than Miami, who played an average of 4.9 minutes in those clutch scenarios.
With a team that has an interesting blend of veterans (Wade, Deng, Johnson, Goran Dragic, Amar'e Stoudemire) and youngsters (Justise Winslow, Richardson, Hassan Whiteside) playing those tight minutes down the stretch will give the Heat just a bit more cohesion, which will make the playoffs just a bit easier.
Miami's resurgence might be tied to its new offensive production, but the Heat's defense --€” especially in big games --€” can still lock teams down. Miami is fifth in the NBA in restricted area defensive field goal percentage, in large part because of Whiteside's blocking ability, but Miami also runs teams off the 3-point line as well as anyone in the NBA (fewest 3-pointers against since February), which has teams shooting a lot of midrange jumpers (the Heat "allow" the third most mid-range shots in the league) where they're making only 38 percent of the shots.
The Heat might not have the depth of some of the other mid-table teams in the Eastern Conference, but their ability to get up for a big game is not something to be overlooked.
Sometimes the increased pace the Heat play is a self-inflicted wound --€” Wade, Stoudemire, and Deng can only go so fast --€” but it dishes out more pain than it takes on --€” especially against the top team in the Eastern Conference, the Cavs.
Look no further than Miami's 122-101 ransacking of the Cavs in Miami last month. The game wasn't as close as the score indicated, and afterwards, LeBron was blunt on why his team lost: "We couldn't keep up with their pace."
The Cavs have aimed to speed up their play since firing David Blatt earlier this season, and in many ways, they have done that, but the Heat present a matchup dilemma for Cleveland.
No one can check LeBron, that's a given, but LeBron can't score 110 points on his own. He needs help, and Miami's 1-2-€“2 dribble-drive motion (10.8 percent assist rate on drives since the ASG) leaves the rest of the Cavs with their heads turned. Johnson was plus-30 in that March matchup, LeBron was minus-23, despite the fact that the Cavs shot 52 percent from the field and had only three more turnovers than Miami.
A big difference between the two teams: offensive rebounding. The Cavs, in their new zeal to push the pace, have abandoned the offensive glass in the second half of the season. Miami, thanks to Deng and Whiteside, are sixth in offensive rebounding and third in overall rebounding since the All-Star Game.
That glass differential gave the Heat 10 extra possessions against the Cavs and left Cleveland in a paradoxical scenario --€“ crash the glass harder and sacrifice the ability to push the pace offensively, or let Miami get extra possessions? The two teams seem to be on a collision course in the Eastern Conference, and this is a series that could absolutely go the distance.
As for beating the Western Conference champions, that's a different story --€” the Heat will have a hard time beating the Warriors or Spurs at their own game --€” but perhaps Wade has the ability to get to the line 97 times again, 10 years later.