Emotion vs. Analytics: Why James Harden and Daryl Morey were always destined to implode

Editor's Note: This story originally published on Oct. 3. With the news that James Harden got his wish, with a trade to the LA Clippers on Oct. 30, we are republishing this for a look at how the Harden-Daryl Morey reached the point of this breakup.

The first time James Harden asked Daryl Morey for a favor was during the 2012-13 season, not long after the star guard had arrived in Houston. It was a small request. 

Harden thought the Rockets could benefit by bringing in a former Oklahoma City teammate who Harden liked, point guard Eric Maynor. Morey disagreed. No deal was made.

As the years went on, though, these sorts of back-and-forths between Morey and Harden became more frequent, more collaborative. There were players Harden liked, and players he didn't; coaches he wanted brought in and coaches he wanted let go. 

It wasn't a one-way street, either. 

Morey respected Harden's perspective and basketball intelligence. More than that, in Harden, he'd found a star who was not only willing to hear what his beloved data had to say, but who also was interested in finding the best ways to take those numbers and apply them on the court. 

"James Harden changed my life," Morey wrote in bold letters in the Houston Chronicle in October 2020 after stepping down from his position with the Rockets, and he was right. He and Harden were true partners, each side giving, each side getting, each making the other better.

The two spent eight seasons together in Houston and then another two in Philadelphia. Both will likely one day have their names enshrined in the Basketball Hall of Fame. And, honestly, they should be enshrined together. Because you can't tell the story of James Harden without Daryl Morey the same way you can't tell the story of Daryl Morey without James Harden. 

Together, they've built some of the game's most successful teams. 

Together, they changed the very nature of the sport.

After a summer punctuated by a public falling out, that relationship is now broken. It appears to be broken beyond repair. First came the shocking news in late June that Harden was done with the 76ers and demanding a trade. Then, later in the summer, Harden torched his relationship with Morey by publicly describing his former partner as "a liar." 

On Monday, in protest of the Sixers not trading him, Harden no-showed the team's media day. 

On the surface, this is all stunning. How could things between the most inextricably linked player-GM combo in recent NBA history have soured so quickly? It wasn't even two years ago that Morey, having completed a trade with the Brooklyn Nets, was greeting Harden at the Philadelphia airport with a smile and a hug.

Different people on different sides have different answers to this question. FOX Sports spoke to nearly a dozen NBA sources connected to Harden, Morey, the Sixers and the Rockets and, as you can imagine, everyone has a different take on how we got here. 

Each side has an agenda, each corner will tell you why it's the other corner's fault. And while there's plenty of blame to go around, the true answer is there is no one to blame. Because the reality is the very traits which allowed their partnership to thrive were always destined to one day drive them apart.

[Takeaways: James Harden and the Clippers got what they wanted, but what about the Sixers?]

*** *** *** 

The seeds of the breakup were planted last offseason. Harden and the Sixers agreed he would take a nearly $15 million pay cut for the benefit of the team. Some of that additional salary space was used to sign P.J. Tucker, who not only boasted some tools the Sixers lacked but also happened to be one of Harden's closest friends. 

The mechanics of the move were simple. Harden declined his $47.4 million player option. He then signed a new two-year, $68.6 million deal, with that second year also an option. If he played well, he could sign another, more lucrative extension the following offseason with the Sixers. Or he could hit the open market. And if something went wrong — Harden was coming off yet another poor playoff performance — the player option, and the insurance it provided, carried some value. 

Was there some sort of side deal made? It was assumed by many throughout the NBA that, in exchange for the pay cut, Morey promised Harden he'd take care of him the following offseason. The Sixers, as you'd expect, insist that no such guarantee was ever made; the NBA investigated that allegation last offseason and found no proof of an under-the-table handshake. Then again, as rivals agents and executives across the NBA have pointed out in interviews throughout the year, if such a conversation did take place, it would be in-person or over the phone. There wouldn't be a paper trail.

For much of the last season, it looked like it wouldn't matter. Harden was fantastic. He led the league in assists. He became a potent pick-and-roll partner with Joel Embiid. 

"He was thrilled when Embiid won MVP," someone close to Harden said. He even bought his center a Rolex as a congratulatory gift.

It looked like Harden was in line to cash in as a free agent. Not only was he playing great, but his former team, the Rockets, would be entering the 2023 offseason with an abundance of cap space, a mandate from ownership to make the leap from tanking team to competing one — and they were open to a Harden reunion. That meant there'd be at least two bidders fighting over Harden's services, a market which, he assumed, would lead to a big new contract. 

Everything changed last spring. 

First, in late April, the Rockets hired Ime Udoka as their next head coach. Udoka was an assistant with the Nets when Harden was in Brooklyn. According to people familiar with Udoka's thinking, he was not a fan of Harden's then, and so his hiring removed Houston from the board. 

Not long after, the Sixers were eliminated in the second round of the playoffs by the Boston Celtics, with Harden shooting just 7-for-27 and scoring just 22 points combined in Games 6 and 7, both losses.

Morey wanted Harden back, but not on a four-year, max deal, according to people familiar with the Sixers' thinking. He and the organization as a whole agreed that such a deal could not be offered. 

Harden turned 34 years old in August. He has a history of nagging injuries. He's clearly no longer the explosive athlete he once was.

What happened next is hard to parse. At some point communication between the two sides broke down. Were the Sixers planning on offering Harden a sub-max contract but just waiting for the free-agency window to officially open? Was Harden done with the Sixers — and specifically Morey — the moment he recognized that no max offer was coming?

This is where the details get murky, and where nothing can be understood without first fully understanding who Daryl Morey and James Harden are.

*** *** *** 

The thing to know about Daryl Morey is that emotions rarely inform his decisions. The thing to know about James Harden is that emotions are what mostly inform his. 

Let's start with Morey. He's dean of the NBA's analytics movement, the man anointed by Michael Lewis as the Billy Beane of the NBA and "Basketball's Nerd King." Data is his lodestar. Every decision, when boiled down, is made with one question in mind: Does this boost his team's odds of winning a title? Sure, other factors seep in every now and then; Morey will be the first to tell you that managing up — be it with ownership or a superstar — is one of the primary jobs of an NBA GM, but that all falls under the umbrella of trying to put together a title team. If confronted with a choice between wins or loyalty, Morey's choosing wins every time.

The best example of this is one Morey has discussed often. In 2006, while running the Rockets, he traded for Shane Battier. At the time, Battier was an average role player on the Grizzlies. But he was data-curious and open to everything Morey was selling, and not only did he blossom in Houston, but he and Morey grew close. 

Then, five years later, Morey traded Battier back to Memphis. Battier, whose wife was pregnant, was furious; the deal temporarily broke their friendship.

"Daryl, at the time, was not a favorite in our household," Battier told FOX Sports in February 2022.

The two have since reconciled — that conversation with Battier was brokered by Morey, who knew FOX Sports was working on a story on how he operates as a boss and wanted to make sure this reporter was speaking to friends and not just foes — but when he made the trade, Morey did so knowing it could permanently end the friendship. It didn't matter how close he and Battier had grown, or how much Battier's past accomplishments had helped Morey and his teams. An opportunity had presented itself, and Morey pounced. 

This is the antithesis of how Harden operates. 

"When you deal with James," said one coach who has worked with Harden, "if he feels like you've crossed him, or if he feels slighted in any way, you're done."

Those perceived slights can take different forms: Dwight Howard was too immature. Chris Paul wanted to nudge some of the offense away from Harden. Kyrie Irving derailed his shot at a title by refusing to get a vaccine. But the root is always the same. Unwavering loyalty is the expectation. When Harden doesn't receive it, the relationship is terminated. 

"You shove him," the coach said, "and he burns down the house." 

For years, Morey gave Harden exactly what Harden wanted. The offense ran through him. Practices and team flights were on his schedule. Friends were added to the roster and coaching staff. And Harden, with his one MVP and three scoring titles and six All-NBA First Team nods, validated it all.

But the relationship was always a house of cards. At some point, Harden's game was going to decline. At some point, Morey would feel the need to tell Harden no. It was inevitable that these two clashing approaches would one day collide.

This summer, after a decade together, that point arrived. 

*** *** *** 

So back to the negotiations this summer that burned down the relationship.

The Sixers were never going to offer Harden a max deal. The plan, one person familiar with the team's thinking has since insisted, was to "be at Harden's doorstep" the moment free agency officially opened to discuss a future contract. They just couldn't move before that because negotiating early with Tucker and Danuel House last offseason led to the NBA stripping them of a pair of second-round picks as punishment. This time around, the Sixers say, they were being extra mindful of the NBA's rules.

Would they have taken such a stance if they believed the Rockets — or another team — were pursuing Harden in free agency? Even in private, the Sixers insist this was not a negotiation tactic, not that they would admit it if it was. 

Then there's the needle Morey is trying to thread. He knows he needs to take advantage of the 29-year-old Embiid's prime years. 

"I don't take the responsibility lightly," he said Monday. "We have to show all the time that we're putting the team in a great situation to win."

But he'd also like to secure a third star before signing guard Tyrese Maxey to a big extension, which the Sixers will have to do next offseason.  

"What we're attempting to do is have the best team possible this year, but also have the ability that, if we get into a next-season situation, to be a very unique team with the most cap room of a team that's as good as us," Morey said during a radio interview with Philadelphia's 97.5 The Fanatic in July. 

"The new (Collective Bargaining Agreement) really kicks in next year. The new CBA next year is going to put massive constraints downward on salaries in the league. So us being the only team with a top player that a player can join is going to put us in a very unique situation. So, I wouldn't call it a two-year plan. It's just more, we're trying to win this season coming up, but we have to keep an eye on how we're going to compete moving forward as well."

From here is where the "he-said, he-said" saga becomes even more tangled. People in touch with Harden say that focusing on the exact numbers misses the point. No, they maintain, what angered Harden the most, what hurt him the most, was that Sixers never actually made clear that they wanted him back. Harden's position now is that if Morey had treated him and their shared history with the respect he and it deserves, especially considering the pay cut he took just one year earlier, a compromise of a deal could have been reached. It's just that with Houston out of the picture, they say, Morey spotted an opportunity to apply some leverage and couldn't help himself.

The Sixers, not surprisingly, see things differently, according to people familiar with their thinking. They most certainly did want Harden back, they've said, and planned on making Harden feel wanted — but only after 6 p.m. ET on June 30, when free agency officially began, and not by handing him a blank check. 

It also has been pointed out that in February, Harden hired a new agent, Mike Silverman of Equity Sports, with whom Morey did not have a previous relationship. Harden is Silverman's most high-profile client, and Monday, when asked during media day how it felt to be called a "liar" by Harden, Morey alluded to this fact and that over the past few months he and Silverman have not seen eye-to-eye.

"I haven't responded to that because I think it falls flat on its face," Morey said of Harden's accusation. "I have 20 years of work in the league. Always followed through on everything. Every top agent knows that."

The truth, as is usually the case in these sorts of spats, likely lies somewhere in the middle. The result, though, was that at some point the communication between the two sides broke down and so on June 29 — one day before free agency's official start — the Sixers learned Harden was picking up his player option. He had no intention of playing for the Sixers, and specifically a Daryl Morey-run team, ever again.

The move stunned the Sixers. They knew Harden might grumble at their negotiation tactics, but never expected him to opt into the final year of his contract. And why did Harden pick up his option if he no longer wanted to play for the Sixers? 

According to people familiar with his thinking, Harden recognized that the teams possessing the cap space to sign him were almost all rebuilding, meaning he didn’t fit their timelines. In other words, the only way for Harden to make the money he wanted and do so while playing for a playoff-caliber team was to pick up his player option and push for a trade.

He had his eye on the LA Clippers, and he believed they were interested in him. Harden's side says Morey promised he'd make a deal. The Sixers say they would never make such a guarantee and the only promise they made is they'd explore trade opportunities.

[Clippers reportedly acquiring James Harden from Sixers while keeping Terance Mann]

"If we don't get either a very good player or something we can turn into a very good player, then we're just not going to do it," Morey said in that July radio interview when asked whether he was open to dealing Harden.

Three months have passed since Harden's request. The Sixers say they've been unable to find a deal, precisely because Harden is so good. 

"We will either move James for a player of a caliber that helps our championship contention or for draft picks and things like that will allow us to, in short order, go get a player like that," Morey told reporters Monday, echoing his July comments. "Short of that, it will continue as long as that takes."

Harden's belief is Morey never honestly attempted to find Harden a new home. In August, ESPN reported the Sixers had ended all Harden trade talks and expected to see the guard in training camp. Harden responded two days later at a media event in China.

"Daryl Morey is a liar," he said, "and I will never be a part of an organization that he's a part of." 

On Monday, Morey was asked how it's felt to watch his relationship with Harden fall apart. 

"I'd say it was hard. I mean, I think there are many people who worked with him for some time, but I've been, you know, right there with anyone else," he said. "Look, I think he is a heck of a basketball player. I like him as a person. It was hard. I think that he felt like that was the right course of action for him at that point.

"You know, what else can I say?"

*** *** *** 

So, what happens now? 

According to the league's Collective Bargaining Agreement, any player who "withholds playing services for more than 30 days after the start of the last season covered by his contract" could be prohibited from entering free agency. But there's no clause against having a strained hamstring. Or being disruptive. Or giving poor effort. Or throwing parties featuring signs which once again call Morey a liar, like Harden did in late September.

"I know he feels strongly about how he feels, and he's going to handle it accordingly on how feels," Tucker, who's been in touch with Harden throughout the offseason, said Monday.

As of Monday morning, the Sixers remained in the dark. 

"We've told him we expect him to be here," Morey said. "We expect him to participate in everything like every other player." 

But he also added, when asked when he found out Harden wouldn't be showing up to media day, and in another not-so-veiled shot at Harden's camp: "We've had conversations with his representation. I don't think they knew their plan."

Later Monday, the Sixers boarded a plane for Colorado for training camp, which opens Tuesday on the campus of Colorado State University. There, Nick Nurse, their new head coach, will begin installing his schemes. He has two different systems ready. One for with Harden, one for without. 

"We've kind of got a plan A and plan B," he said Monday. "We've got to get the team ready, regardless … If he shows up, we go. If he doesn't, we go."

Of course, if Harden were to show up to training camp it might not be with a goal of helping the team. At this point, if he remains resolute in his refusal to play for Morey, his options are to either return to the team, be a good citizen and trust that, with time and patience, Morey can generate a trade market and find an adequate return. Or Harden could make things messy — like he did first in Houston and then again in Brooklyn — and force Morey's hand.

"I wouldn't be surprised if he returns and is destructive," one person who knows Harden well said recently.

[2023 NBA odds: James Harden trade to Clippers shifts title odds]

Morey, meanwhile, is under more pressure than ever. The easy decision would have been to simply hand Harden whatever he wanted and kick the can down the road. He didn't take the easy path but, thanks to his constant search for an edge, has backed himself into a corner.

He still believes the Sixers are in a good position. 

"We feel strongly we have a team that could win and make a lot of noise in the playoffs," Morey said Monday.

He noted how the Sixers still have "the MVP of the league" in Embiid, and "one of the great up-and-coming players" in Maxey. He's previously talked about how, with Tobias Harris' massive contract set to come off the books next offseason, the Sixers have all sorts of (to use one of his favorite words) optionality, something elite teams rarely possess. Maybe there's a free agent out there who wants to play with a contender. Maybe there's a floundering team who, at some point, will feel the need to dump a star.

It's a gamble, though, precisely because the Sixers, as Morey pointed out, employ the MVP.

"I just want to win a championship, whatever it takes," Embiid said during a media panel in June. "I don't know where that's going to be, whether it's Philly or elsewhere, I just want to have a chance."

This was the first time in Embiid's nearly 10 seasons with the Sixers that he'd ever publicly entertained the notion of playing for another team. During media day on Monday, he mostly punted when asked about his future and the Harden standoff, but he also pointed out how "consistency" was something his Sixers teams have lacked, and how titles won in Denver and Golden State were built on returning cores.

"So, I feel like at some point if you want to win, you need to have that consistency," Embiid said, before adding, "If every year is going to be the same thing, that doesn't put you closer to winning a championship. That gets frustrating."  

It's not hard to envision a scenario where the Harden situation goes south, and Embiid, frustrated with his surroundings and looking around at the now-retooled Celtics and Bucks, asks out. Could Morey, the man hired by the Sixers to salvage the Embiid era, wind up being the one presiding over its end? 

One thing we do know is that Morey will do everything he can to avoid that fate. After all, Embiid's happiness is now his priority. 

Just like Harden's once was, not that long ago.

Yaron Weitzman is an NBA writer for FOX Sports. He is the author of "Tanking to the Top: The Philadelphia 76ers and the Most Audacious Process in the History of Professional Sports." Follow him on Twitter @YaronWeitzman.