Washington Wizards: Explaining The Team's Recent Success

Dec 19, 2016; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Washington Wizards guard John Wall (2) and forward Markieff Morris (5) react to Washington missing a potential game winning shot at the buzzer in the 4th quarter against the Indiana Pacers at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. Indiana defeats Washington 107-105. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

The Washington Wizards have played improved basketball since the calendar hit December. What has caused the turnaround, and can they sustain it?

The Washington Wizards could not have been more disappointing to start the season. With just two wins in their first 10 games, including losses to Orlando and Philadelphia, the playoffs seemed impossibly far away.

Immediate indictments of their offseason followed. Their failure to acquire a marquee free agent — Kevin Durant gave them the cold shoulder, but they were a legitimate contender for Al Horford — cut off their high-end talent amidst an Eastern Conference starting to grow into its own.

The large contract given to Bradley Beal already was a mistake. Jason Smith, Andrew Nicholson, Ian Mahinmi, Tomas Satoransky — none of their signings were living up to the billing. New head coach Scott Brooks was simply a wasted signing when they didn’t get a sitdown from Durant. And keeping general manager Ernie Grunfeld was perhaps the largest mistake of all.

But suddenly things sound a little different in the nation’s capital. That 2-8 start shifted sideways to 6-12 before the calendar hit December and the tune changed. Their 7-4 record since a loss at San Antonio has the Washington Wizards at 13-16, 10th in the Eastern Conference and just 3.5 games out of third.

Why the sudden resurgence in Washington? How did the disastrous play of the first few weeks turn into the legitimate team of the last few? And can they keep it up, or are they doomed to collapse once more?

Dec 12, 2016; Miami, FL, USA; Washington Wizards guard John Wall (2) dribbles the ball against the Miami Heat during the second half at American Airlines Arena. The Heat won 112-101. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

No More Sitting John Wall

The former Kentucky Wildcat has been one of the best players in the Eastern Conference since being selected first overall in the 2010 NBA Draft. He is a three-time All-Star who is annually considered among the best point guards in the East, often leading the conference in assists.

But after offseason surgery on both knees, Wall was eased back into the daily grind of the NBA schedule. He sat or played limited minutes in four games during the first month, most coming as one night of a back-to-back.

The Wizards seemed to attempt a strategy of sitting Wall for the games they could win without him, while playing him for the tougher contests. This backfired on Washington in a major way, as the Wizards lost all four of those games, including winnable contests against the Orlando Magic and Philadelphia 76ers. They often lost the games Wall did play in as well.

Since mid-November the Wizards have lifted his playing limitations and Washington’s record has soared accordingly. He has played at least 32 minutes in every contest since, giving his team a steady hand at point guard and All-Star level contributions.

For the season Wall is now averaging 23.5 points, 9.7 assists and 4.5 rebounds per game, leading the East in assists. His 2.3 steals per game leads the entire NBA, and have helped spark needed transition points for a thirsty Wizards offense.

Wall is no elite superstar; he can’t put a team on his back and drag them to the playoffs. But he has talent around him, and is the only player on the roster capable of maximizing that talent. The Wizards need him on the court to be a postseason participant, and over the last month he has been.

Dec 8, 2016; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Wizards forward Kelly Oubre Jr. (12) dribbles as Denver Nuggets forward Juancho Hernangomez (41) defends during the second half at Verizon Center. The Washington Wizards won 92-85. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

The Bench Isn’t Quite So Bad

After a 106-95 loss to the Chicago Bulls dropped Washington to 2-9, center Marcin Gortat unloaded on the team’s lower half. “I think right now, as far as I know, I think we’ve got one of the worst benches in the league right now.”

His words didn’t spur the team towards excellence, as they lost their very next game to the 76ers with their bench scoring just 25 points and shooting 11-27 from the field. The team desperately missed the steady presence of veterans such as Ramon Session, Jared Dudley, Garrett Temple and Nene – all bench players from a season ago who are suiting up in different cities this year.

The linchpin of the bench was supposed to be Ian Mahinmi, but the free agent acquisition has been sidelined by knee surgeries of his own and is nowhere close to making a full return. In his stead the combination of Jason Smith and Andrew Nicholson has struggled to make any impact.

Smith cloaked himself with a positive reputation while in Orlando despite subpar play, and has continued the latter with a mere 7.9 Player Efficiency Rating this season. For reference, 15 is the average score for PER. Nicholson is worse, parlaying an inability to get on the court with the Magic into a new contract that is already a gross overpay; the fifth-year forward is putting up a mere 6.9 for his PER.

Fortunately for Washington, the remainder of the bench has begun to improve as the season has gone on. Kelly Oubre totaled 13 rebounds over the team’s first 10 games, but has pulled in an average of 5.6 over the team’s last 11, including 15 over the last three games. Trey Burke has stabilized after coming over from Utah, shooting over fifty percent over the last five games.

The primary benefit to the Wizards’ bench has been consistency. After Wall, Bradley Beal, and Markieff Morris missed a few games each earlier in the season they have had a consistent starting lineup, allowing Scott Brooks to stabilize his bench rotation. Those reps together have paid dividends, keeping the Wizards from falling apart when the starters sit.

Dec 18, 2016; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Wizards guard Bradley Beal (3) celebrates with Wizards guard John Wall (2) after making a three point field goal against the LA Clippers in the fourth quarter at Verizon Center. The Wizards won 117-110. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Can They Sustain Their Play?

The trick for Washington will be continuing to play above .500, something they haven’t shown for the past 100 games. After strong playoff runs in 2014 and 2015, the last two seasons have been a disappointing combination of injuries and inconsistency.

For the short-term, Washington should stay firmly in the playoff picture. Only two of their next 11 opponents boast records above .500, and only twice do they face a back-to-back. Facing off with the middle class of the league can be a source of both wins and a means of measuring their mettle against like teams.

It’s beyond the next few weeks that Washington needs to focus on, and that is more uncertain. While the Eastern Conference hasn’t shown the strength many expected, it also doesn’t feature the same cupcakes of recent seasons, as the Wizards have lost to both Orlando and Philadelphia this year.

If the starting backcourt of John Wall and Bradley Beal can stay healthy, the Wizards should make the postseason. But they need a lot of improvement from other areas of the roster to become anything more. The team that was won more than it has lost over the past month is a deeply flawed group. They need the bench to continue improving, Mahinmi to return before the stretch run, and Otto Porter to become a third star.

But what Washington has shown the past few weeks is that even without those things, Wall and Beal are enough to carry them back into the playoff picture. What happens next will either bring that picture into focus, or take their goals and shatter them.