Utah Jazz at Golden State Warriors: Keys to the Game

Although the Utah Jazz will have more of their starters back in action than last time they faced off against Golden State, the absence of George Hill and the Warriors’ daunting home court advantage may prove too much to overcome.

It was less than two weeks ago that the Utah Jazz and Golden State Warriors squared off against one another at Vivint Smart Home Arena. The Jazz, down four starters, got off to a frighteningly bad start and for a while it looked like a blowout of epic proportions was brewing.

But instead, with a charge led mostly by Joe Ingles, the Jazz and it’s feisty bunch of players accustomed to playing reserve roles led a ferocious comeback which saw Utah get within five in the final period. The Jazz truthfully had several chances to break into the lead had a couple of shots or whistles gone their way.

But in the end, it simply wasn’t in the cards.

Ever since last season, the Jazz have been touted as a team possessing some unique traits that could be key to taking down the mighty Golden State Warriors. In two of Utah’s four contests a year ago against them, the games came down to the final seconds, including an overtime finish in their final bout of the year.

But nevertheless, each time last year, the Jazz fell short. If you recall in the 2014-15 season, the Jazz pulled off a stunning and thrilling 110-100 victory over the Warriors at the end of January while Golden State was going through a bit of a mini-slump. However, aside from that arguably fluke of a game, it’s been all Warriors when the Jazz have been involved.

Of course, it’s been all Warriors when pretty much any opponent (besides the reigning champion Cleveland Cavaliers) has been involved, so Utah shouldn’t feel too bad. Yet it’s clear that this up and coming Jazz team wants more. Settling for mediocrity, almost beating the Warriors, sneaking into the playoffs, none of that is good enough for this determined Jazz team.

They know they’re capable of challenging Golden State and, as much as Draymond Green and Co. choose to laugh things off, have the personnel to cause problems for them. However, given the fact that the Warriors have won 12 of the last 13 games against the Jazz, Utah has been like a mosquito to an elephant. Sure they’ve been an annoyance, but haven’t yet been anywhere close to being a real threat.

Yet, as the Jazz come into tonight’s contest against the Warriors on a four-game winning streak and winning 11 of their last 13, they have to be feeling pretty good about where they stand.

Given how close they’ve come to defeating the Warriors and considering how well they’ve played overall of late, there’s no doubt in my mind that the Jazz at the very least have the necessary belief that they are capable of beating Golden State.

But winning at Oracle Arena is no easy task for any team, so belief will not be nearly enough. If the Jazz are to come away with a huge win over a Golden State Warriors team that has plagued them so much of late, they’re going to have to execute precisely, particularly in these key areas.

Key Match-up – Gordon Hayward and Kevin Durant

The first time I got us prepped for the match-up between the Jazz and Warriors, this is the match-up that I had pinned as the one that fans should keep their eyes on. Unfortunately, shortly thereafter the injury report came out and it was determined that Gordon Hayward would actually be sidelined for the contest.

Instead we got to see the Joe Ingles show, which was pretty cool to be honest, but I’m more looking forward to a healthy Hayward battle against former league MVP Kevin Durant.

This will be a clear battle of titans as both players are the leading scorers on their respective teams. Durant comes into the game averaging 25.8 points per game on an impressive 53.8 percent shooting from the field and 40.9 percent from deep. He’s also pulling down a hefty 8.5 rebounds per game while dishing out 4.7 assists for the team that leads the league in assists by a wide margin (Houston comes in at second with six less assists per game).

And while Durant is unarguably the better player matched up one-on-one against Hayward, there’s also no questioning the body of work that the Jazz star is putting up this year. He’s averaging 22.4 points per game on a team that averages nearly ten less possessions per game than the Warriors.

Hayward’s stat line of 44.3 FG%, 36.4 3PT%, 6.3 rebounds and 3.9 assists is solid, but what has really impressed me about Hayward this season has been his improvement at attacking the rim and either finishing around the basket or getting fouled. Hayward is logging career highs in free throw attempts, free throws made and free throw percentage. In a league where stars make their hay at the foul line, it’s been a great look for the Jazz forward.

Nov 23, 2015; Salt Lake City, UT, USA; Utah Jazz forward Gordon Hayward (20) moves the ball as Oklahoma City Thunder forward Kevin Durant (35) defends during the second half at Vivint Smart Home Arena. Oklahoma City won 111-89. Mandatory Credit: Russ Isabella-USA TODAY Sports

And while the Jazz will certainly need Hayward’s trusty 20+ point offensive contribution in order to come away with a win against Golden State, perhaps where they’ll need him the most is to slow Durant down on defense.

Hayward is a very underrated defender and he has been a big part of a suffocating Jazz defense this season. Of course Utah’s defense relies largely on the team as a whole and benefits greatly from the presence of Rudy Gobert lurking in the paint, but to shut down Durant it will need to start with Gordon’s lockdown D on the perimeter.

The Jazz managed to hold Durant under his scoring average last time these two squads met, but he still finished with a solid 21 points. It’s unlikely that a scorer like Durant is going to be held to much less than that, but if Hayward and Co. can at least slow him down and frustrate him into an inefficient night, it will help their chances of winning significantly.

Key Stat – Three-Point Percentage

Last time these two teams met, I went into detail about how one of Golden State’s biggest weapons – the three-point shot – can also be their biggest detriment. Yes, they’re an extremely talented shooting team, but when those three-balls aren’t falling it can have a devastating effect on the team.

At the time, the Warriors had lost only three games and in each of them, they shot under 30 percent from deep. Golden State has faltered one more time since then, losing 110-89 to the Memphis Grizzlies in embarrassing fashion despite the fact that they shot better than 30 percent from deep for the first time in a loss this season.

Jan 13, 2015; Salt Lake City, UT, USA; Utah Jazz forward Joe Ingles (2) controls the ball in front of Golden State Warriors guard Andre Iguodala (9) during the first half at EnergySolutions Arena. Mandatory Credit: Russ Isabella-USA TODAY Sports

Nevertheless, they still went just 33.3 percent from behind the arc in the contest, their ninth worst performance in that area on the season and well below their season average of 38.1 percent, which is fifth best in the league.

Thus it’s still clear that in order to beat Golden State, opponents have to find a way to limit them from the line. The Jazz certainly weren’t able to do that in the teams’ first meeting as Utah finished the game shooting just 10-of-38 (26.3 percent) from deep (Joe Ingles accounted for half of those makes) compared to Golden State’s much more efficient 12-of-29 (41.4 percent).

So if Utah wants to change the outcome of the game this time around, they’ll have to start by reversing the results at the three-point line. With the likes of Gordon Hayward and Rodney Hood back in the mix, one would assume they have a great shot at doing just that.

In the first three games of Utah’s current four-game winning streak, they shot a scorching 45.9 percent from deep, but in Sunday’s win over the Grizzlies finished at just 29.6 percent. Hopefully the game in Memphis was just an anomaly and Utah gets its hot hand back in time for tonight’s showdown against the Warriors.

Key Performer – Rudy Gobert

I hate to have all three keys be the same as last time these two teams met, but since the Jazz were the walking wounded last time around, it makes sense that the forecast would be similar to what we would have hoped to see the first time.

And Rudy Gobert truly is the X-factor against a team whose biggest weakness is arguably their lack of size in the frontcourt. Rudy’s length and rim protection are a huge irritant for this Warriors team and Utah will have to take advantage of the opportunity he presents if they are to win.

He was splendid the last time these two teams met as he notched 20 points on a perfect 8-of-8 shooting and pulled down 17 rebounds.

Gobert has made some big claims of late such as that the Jazz are a top four team in the league that can beat anybody and that he considers himself the best center in the league. In tonight’s nationally televised contest on NBATV against the NBA’s best team, he’ll have an ideal opportunity to put his money where his mouth is.

It honestly makes me a little nervous, because it seems that all Rudy’s talking may put a bigger target on him, particularly from the likes of the biggest talker in the league, Draymond Green. However, if Gobert’s recent play is any indication, then he should be able to post a monster game once again especially given the fact that Golden State has no marquee center to slow him down.

Prediction – Warriors 112, Jazz 106

Well, now that I’ve given you all the things Utah needs to do to come away with a miraculous win, it’s time to come back down to earth. Can Utah win this game? Yes, they very well could. But I’d still say the safest bet is that a dominant Warriors team will defend their home court, so I’ll stick with the prediction I made at the onset of the week.

The Jazz will get an enormous boost from the return of Gordon Hayward, Rodney Hood and Derrick Favors, but they’re still missing the guy that I think will be the glue that brings this team together and takes them to the next level, George Hill.

Hill has been incredible in the limited number of games he’s played thus far and his veteran experience and prowess on both ends of the court will be severely missed in a contest such as this. I had the Jazz losing a close one in my predictions last time these two teams met (fun side note, I was only off by one point on my prediction for the final score in that game) and I’m projecting a similar result tonight.

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This latest hot streak from the Jazz has been an incredible ride leading up to tonight’s clash against the league-leading Warriors. If Utah were to win they would further solidify themselves as a top threat in the Western Conference.

But while they’ll be a much more formidable opponent with several of their starters back in action, Golden State’s home court advantage and the Jazz’s lack of a true starting point guard in Hill’s continued absence will likely prove to be too much to overcome.

All stats courtesy of NBA.com and ESPN.com