Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks: Keys to the Game

The Utah Jazz will look to win their fifth straight game as they visit a tough Dallas Mavericks team on the second night of a back-to-back.

The Utah Jazz come into tonight’s game off of one of their most dominant wins of the season as they defeated the New Orleans Pelicans by a score of 127 to 94. It was Utah’s second straight 120-point game, the first coming against Atlanta on Monday, and just the first time they had put up that many points in back-to-back games since the 2011-12 season.

With these latest two wins, against teams with birds as their mascots (a.k.a. the Atlanta Hawks and New Orleans Pelican), the Jazz are outscoring their opponent by 28.3 points per game this season. It almost makes you wish we could change the Spurs and Warriors mascots to the San Antonio Sparrows and the Golden State Warblers.

Unfortunately, tonight’s bout will not be against a bird, but rather against an improving, horse-mascoted Dallas Mavericks team that has pushed the Jazz to the brink in both of the two latest contests. Utah required a late three from Rodney Hood to seal the deal in the first of those two and five more minutes of overtime to dispatch Dallas in the most recent contest.

Thus, the Jazz will have to be ready to compete against a savvy veteran squad that is fighting to keep its head above water in the race for the eighth seed in the Western Conference and has given them troubles in the past. The Jazz have won all three contests against the Mavs so far this season and with a win tonight could earn their first four-game regular season series sweep over Dallas since the 1997-98 season.

However, coming in on the second night of a back-to-back to play a rested Dallas team on the road will be far from easy. So the Jazz will need to look to match their incredible play from the past two games as well as put heavy emphasis on the following areas if they hope to come out on top and win their fifth game in a row.

Jan 20, 2017; Dallas, TX, USA; Utah Jazz forward Gordon Hayward (20) drives to the basket as Dallas Mavericks guard Wesley Matthews (23) defends during the second quarter at American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Key Match-up – Gordon Hayward and Wesley Matthews

Although the Mavericks started out the season horribly, they’ve since picked it up significantly and find themselves three games out of eighth place in the West and winners of six of their last nine thanks to much-improved play from several of their players. One guy in particular who has stepped it up of late has been swingman Wesley Matthews.

With the Mavs largely using a smaller lineup due to Andrew Bogut’s injuries, featuring Dirk Nowitzki at the starting center spot and Harrison Barnes at the stretch-four, Matthews has played nicely at the small forward spot.

He’s coming off a 23-point outing in the team’s latest contest against Portland where he went 9-of-17 from the field with three made threes and has scored over 20 points in three of the team’s last five games.

Matthews especially came up big in three of Dallas’ latest wins over big-time opponents such as the San Antonio Spurs, Cleveland Cavaliers and the Portland Trail Blazers who are right there with Dallas in contention for that final playoff spot in the West. He’s a solid defender and a capable shooter who can fill it up from behind the arc while being efficient from all over the court.

Thus Gordon Hayward will have his hands full as he looks to contain and outmatch former Jazzman Wesley Matthews. Hayward had put up two straight 30-point games in the wins over the Hornets and the Hawks, but finished with just 17 last night.

It wasn’t a bad game for him by any means as he played well and simply allowed some of his teammates to pick up the slack, but I expect Hayward to look to bounce back with a higher scoring output in what is bound to be a more hotly contested game against a Mavericks team that has given the Jazz some problems this season.

Given that Gordon Hayward is Utah’s leading scorer at 22.1 points per game and Wesley Matthews is the Mavs’ third leading scorer (behind Harrison Barnes and rookie sensation Yogi Ferrell who has appeared in just six games for the Mavs) at 15.3 per game, both teams rely heavily on these two competitors and whichever one can shine the brightest tonight could very well lead their team to victory.

Dec 16, 2016; Salt Lake City, UT, USA; Dallas Mavericks guard Deron Williams (8) shoots the ball against Utah Jazz guard Shelvin Mack (8) during the first half at Vivint Smart Home Arena. Mandatory Credit: Russ Isabella-USA TODAY Sports

Key Stat – Three-Point Percentage

The last time the Jazz faced off against the Mavericks, both teams shot an identical 8-of-23 (34.8 percent) from three-point land in what would eventually be a tightly contested overtime game. Had the Mavericks shot even slightly better and hit or exceeded their season average of 35.9 percent from deep, it could have been the difference in the game.

The Jazz however, were under their season average as well as they are an even better 36.5 percent three-point shooting team for the year. Therefore, whoever breaks out and finds their shot from deep in this contest could very well find themselves with a critical advantage.

Utah has been red hot from three on this current road trip as they went 38.5 percent as a team against Atlanta and 43.8 percent against New Orleans last night. The Jazz have also shot no worse than 37 percent in each of their last five contests.

Although they’ll be playing on the second night of a back-to-back, last night’s blowout win allowed them to limit the minutes of some of their key guys, so hopefully the Jazz will still be able to find their stroke and keep up that hot shooting to close out the three-game road stint.

Jan 20, 2017; Dallas, TX, USA; Utah Jazz center Rudy Gobert (27) battles for the ball with Dallas Mavericks center Salah Mejri (50) and guard Deron Williams (8) during the second quarter at American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Key Performer – Rudy Gobert

The last time the Jazz took on the Mavericks, there’s no doubting that Rudy Gobert was the key performer as he put up an incredible 27 points and 25 rebounds, many of which came at absolutely essential times. He was the difference maker in a tightly contested overtime victory.

While it is a tall order to expect Rudy to match his 25-25 effort once again, I still expect him to be Utah’s key guy tonight. Dirk Nowitzki is an NBA legend, but as he reaches the twilight of his career, there just isn’t much he can do to stop the Stifle Tower defensively.

Beyond Nowitzki, the Mavs’ frontline is either undersized, inexperienced or in the case of Andrew Bogut, injured. Therefore, with little resistance defensively, Gobert should be able to have his way around the rim and on the boards just like before.

Nowitzki’s ability to stretch the floor as a 37.9 percent three-point shooter this season could potentially cause Gobert some headaches on the defensive end, but given the streakiness that has come with his age and the fact that he has struggled against the Jazz in both contests he’s played in this season, it shouldn’t pose more of a threat than Rudy is able to handle.

Jan 20, 2017; Dallas, TX, USA; Utah Jazz forward Gordon Hayward (20) and center Rudy Gobert (27) and forward Joe Johnson (6) and center Boris Diaw (33) react in overtime against the Dallas Mavericks at American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Prediction – Jazz 102, Mavericks 97

Given the fact that this game is on the second night of a back-to-back against a gritty Dallas team that consistently hangs in games and has certainly challenged the Jazz this year, when I previewed the week I had actually picked the Mavs to win this game. Yet, while I hate to be a flip-flopper, I’ve actually decided to change my opinion as we head into the contest for several reasons.

First of all, the Jazz are clicking extremely well right now as evidenced by their current four-game winning streak. If they can even put up a semblance of the chemistry and offensive firepower that they’ve showed lately, they should be able to come up with a win against a mediocre Mavs team.

Also, last night’s blowout win shouldn’t have worn them out dramatically as the Jazz were able to sit Rudy Gobert, Gordon Hayward and George Hill for much of the fourth quarter. Therefore, despite playing on the second night of a back-to-back, I expect them to be relatively fresh.

Finally, the Mavs aren’t known for their depth anyway, so with injuries to key guys, they could be in a world of hurt against a very well-rounded and complete Jazz team. J.J. Barea, who has consistently been a Jazz killer, will miss tonight’s game along with Andrew Bogut while Deron Williams is listed as doubtful.

In Williams’ absence, the Mavs have received quite a boost from rookie phenom Yogi Ferrell, but it’s doubtful that he’ll be able to repeat his breakout performance against the Blazers with the lockdown defense of the Jazz in town and even his recent hot shooting won’t be enough alone to handle Utah’s depth.

Thus, I’m changing my original prediction of a narrow loss to instead be a narrow victory. It always seems to be a battle against Dallas and I wouldn’t expect any less this time around. But considering all the aforementioned factors, I’m confident pinning the Jazz as five-point winners.

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They surely outscored my prediction for last night’s game and could very well do so again tonight. But regardless of the final score, though, this would be an important win for the Jazz as they look to sweep the three-game road trip and take confidence into what will be the toughest game of the week on Saturday when Utah welcomes a red hot Boston Celtics team into Vivint Smart Home Arena.

The combination of a win tonight followed by a win over a team like that immediately after a tough road trip would be an enormous step forward for this Jazz squad to prove that they belong among the elite in the NBA heading into the All-Star break.

All stats courtesy of NBA.com