How the U.S. men's basketball program can return to Olympic dominance

By Martin Rogers
FOX Sports Columnist

It is a really good group, with really good players and a really good leader in Kevin Durant, but no one is calling the United States men’s basketball squad the "Dream Team" this year, and there’s a good reason for that.

A Dream Team is one that not only plays like a dream and is assembled in such a way that it looks like the figment of a fan’s utopian imagination but also one that everyone dreams of being part of.

And that’s just not the case — not in Tokyo, not now and perhaps less and less moving forward. Having your name attached to an Olympic campaign in representation of the U.S. isn’t something every homegrown NBA star aspires to.

It often sounds like a good idea: an overseas adventure, instant gold medal favoritism, some cool Olympic swag and, four years ago, the chance to live for a few weeks on a luxury cruise liner in the harbor of Rio de Janeiro.

Yet when reality kicks in at the end of a long and tough NBA season, and playing for the U.S. in the grandest sports festival of all means a summer away from home, missing out on rest and rehab, possibly to the displeasure of your employer, a little of the shine wears off. Or a lot of it, for a lot of players.

"There were a few players whose teams just didn’t want them to play," outgoing national team managing director Jerry Colangelo told reporters. "They were looking at it from their own perspective, their team perspective. I get it. I understand that.

"[For] players, whether it’s admitted or not, money and careers and things like that are of the utmost importance."

For all the compelling reasons to jump aboard the Olympic train, there are suddenly just as many to wave it off at the station platform instead, which is why, while Durant, Damian Lillard, Devin Booker, Jayson Tatum and Khris Middleton are present and hooping, LeBron James, Steph Curry, James Harden, Kyrie Irving, Anthony Davis and plenty of others are not.

Whisper it now, but there is one way the trend could reverse, and it is one that Durant and his colleagues will do everything they can to prevent.

Losing.

Weirdly, the best way for the U.S. program to bounce back would be if this campaign did not have a glorious ending. Americans don’t take the national team's winning for granted when ... it isn’t winning all the time.

The embarrassment of the 2004 squad, crashing to defeats against Puerto Rico, Lithuania and Argentina, was the catalyst for a revival. The Redeem Team was locked and loaded in 2008, powering its way to a legacy that still sees it compared favorably to the 1992 originals, and everyone back home was on board with the story.

For the players involved — such as Kobe Bryant, James, Dwyane Wade, Carmelo Anthony and Dwight Howard — that tournament remains an important part of their career narrative.

But if the group stage defeat to France was a mere blip for the current team and a fourth straight gold is recorded, expect more "no, thanks" from the biggest names next time. The structure of international basketball has shifted in a way that arguably will throw more obstacles in the way of the U.S. 

Moving forward, the global hoops calendar will continue to see the FIBA World Cup staged the year before the Olympics. That means there will be a strong preference for players able to commit to a two-year cycle, essentially back-to-back summers of tussling it out against tough international opponents instead of, I don’t know, hopping on a banana boat with a bunch of your buddies.

A lot of players won’t be able to make that promise, which in return impacts continuity against well-drilled rivals who are finely adapted to the differences of international play.

As Wednesday night turns into the early hours of Thursday, the U.S. team will be in semifinal action against an Australia lineup that defeated the Americans in an exhibition just before heading to Japan.

The truth is that there is only so much public appetite for the U.S. winning every single Olympics. One could argue that with each gold medal won, there is actually more to lose for players considering getting involved next time. No one wants to be involved in messing up a streak of golden glory.

The fans, too, have taken on some apathy — so much so that not everyone is on board with the U.S. winning gold. NBA fans have come to love and appreciate their overseas stars, and rooting for the Americans in men’s basketball doesn’t feel quite the same as cheering on Sydney McLaughlin on the track or Sunisa Lee in gymnastics.

"I have a confession to make to America," FS1’s Nick Wright said on "First Things First." "I don’t always root for the United States in the Olympics. There are a lot of times when I root against the country. This is going to be one of those times. You know who’s going to win the gold … [Luka Doncic] and Slovenia."

It might turn out that way, though it is worth considering that the U.S. team is still a massive and overwhelming favorite, priced at -400 for gold with FOX Bet. One of two things will happen. The Americans are either going to do exactly what was expected and claim the title, or they will turn up on the end of a humiliating shock against an opponent that, on paper, will be significantly weaker.

If that second scenario happens, it might be just the jolt the program needs to make us — and the stars who stayed away — care enough again.

Martin Rogers is a columnist for FOX Sports and the author of the FOX Sports Insider Newsletter. You can subscribe to the newsletter here.