Toronto Raptors Should Look At Trading Kyle Lowry

Kyle Lowry has put the Toronto Raptors in a tough spot with his declaration that he will opt out and seek the max. It would be irresponsible for the team to not explore their options.

Trading for Kyle Lowry in 2012 was the best trade in Toronto Raptors franchise history. This is a fact that isn’t debatable. The team acquired him for a protected first round pick and Gary Forbes. While the pick was moved to Oklahoma City and used to draft Steven Adams, the Raptors would do that swap any day of the week. Kyle Lowry has been the best player for the team over the last three season, while the team has experienced more success than any time in their history. He is the heart of the team and the one that has made their success possible. But with his decision to opt out, the team would be wise to consider their options moving forward.

On Tuesday, Lowry announced that it is his intention to opt-out of his contract and seek a near max deal. For Lowry, such a deal would be within the range of $30 million dollars per season for five years. His preference is to remain in Toronto, but it’s clear that his primary motivation is getting the security of a max deal:

I think it should be a situation where a guy shouldn’t have to talk to another team,” Lowry said. “DeMar (DeRozan) didn’t have the chance to talk to another team … For me, I think that at 12:01 a.m. on July 1 – something should be close. If not, I’m open to seeing what else is out there.

Moving in this direction puts the Raptors in a difficult spot. On the one hand, this team would not have the same success without Lowry. While Cory Joseph is arguably the best backup point guard in the league, losing Lowry would make him a low-end starter at best. On the other hand, giving out a five-year deal next summer carries its own risk. Lowry will be 31 at that time, and as a 6-foot guard, there’s reason to be concerned about how his game will age as his athleticism declines. His ability to shoot the ball should help prevent a dramatic drop-off, but in all likelihood, his best basketball is behind him.

Then there’s the issue of his playoff performance. Over 44 career playoff games Lowry has averaged 14.7 points and 4.3 assists per game on 38.3 percent shooting from the floor and 30.9 percent from three. These numbers have some noise to them, as they are skewed by Lowry’s time in Houston as a reserve, as well as various injuries over his last two playoff runs. The latter part of that equation is the biggest cause for concern. While Lowry still was a large positive for Toronto last season in the playoffs, the lack of durability has been a re-occurring theme throughout his career.

Perhaps his earlier injuries were due to poor conditioning, something he altered in 2015-2016 with his weight loss. Maybe his injury prior to last year’s playoff was a fluke rather than part of a larger trend. The fact of the matter is that the trend exists, as should be factored when deciding to give a 31-year-old a five-year deal.

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There are no easy decisions in the NBA. It’s impossible to predict a player’s health, or how they will age. The Dallas Mavericks let Steve Nash go, in part due to concerns about longevity due to his back problems. After leaving Dallas he went on to win two MVPs, along with becoming a ground-breaking player for his position. It would be foolish to say there is a right or wrong answer when it comes to handling Lowry this summer. However, it would be irresponsible to not make some calls and assess his trade value.

Lowry is an outlier on this Toronto team. The Raptors have tons of young talent with DeMar DeRozan, Jonas Valanciunas, Terrence Ross, Norman Powell, Jakob Poeltl, Patrick Patterson, and Jared Sullinger all 27 years old or younger. The team is among the best in the NBA, but still not a legitimate contender like the Golden State Warriors or Cleveland Cavaliers. Packaging Lowry with other assets could allow the team to add a younger star, as well as extend their window. By adding a disgruntled star, like a DeMarcus Cousins the team could take a step back in the short-term to help elevate their ceiling in the long-term.

That being said, teams aren’t typically itching to move star players. Plus teams like the Boston Celtics or Phoenix Suns have better assets to pull off such a move. The Raptors shouldn’t move Lowry simply to avoid paying him. If they can’t get proper value, they shouldn’t move him.

Retaining Lowry comes with its own consequences. Let’s say he were to sign a 5-year deal worth $150 million. It’s not the most he can sign for, but it’s realistic given his talent and market value. That would push Toronto into luxury tax territory and make retaining other free agents like Patrick Patterson more difficult to swallow. Improving the team through free agency would become nearly impossible. Not what you want from a team that is a piece away from being a legitimate contender.

If they were to retain Lowry, the team would need to aggressively pursue other options to capitalize on his window as a top 10 point guard. Consolidating the existing talent to give Lowry and DeRozan a legitimate running mate to give them a shot at a title. Either way, inactivity is not an option for Toronto at this point.

While the ultimate goal is to win a title, the reality is 29 teams fall short every year. The success the team has experienced over the last few seasons has helped change the perception of the Toronto Raptors. Moving on from Lowry would be a devastating blow to many within the fanbase. There’s no shame in continuing to be a very successful team and making deep playoff runs. Establishing a winning culture can help the team recruit free agents in the future.

The point is that with Lowry’s impending free agency, they must assess what they could get in return for him. It would be irresponsible not to. If the return isn’t worth the shaking up the foundation the team has built, they need not act on it. But choosing to bring back Lowry and pay he and DeRozan around $60 million per season would need to lead to other difficult decisions. Especially when you consider their competition in the Cavaliers pays around that figure for Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson combined.

The multiple avenues the Raptors can take make them one of the most fascinating teams in the league this year. Not only are they a strong contender to make the Conference Finals again, but the amount of questions they face means we’re unlikely to see the same roster make it from opening night to playoffs. The ball is in Masai Ujiri’s court.