Toronto Raptors 2016-17 player grades: The starters
Kyle LowryKyle Lowry
Dec 23, 2016; Salt Lake City, UT, USA; Toronto Raptors guard Kyle Lowry (7) is congratulated by teammate guard DeMar DeRozan (10) after a basket in the fourth quarter against the Utah Jazz at Vivint Smart Home Arena. The Toronto Raptors defeated the Utah Jazz 104-98. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Swinger-USA TODAY Sports
With the 2016-17 NBA season now over for the Toronto Raptors, it's time to look back on the performances of each player. Moving from the youngsters to the bench to the starters, we'll grade every Raptor's 2016-17 season and evaluate his future with the franchise.
Over the last week, we've evaluated the 10 bench players on the Toronto Raptors. We started out with the youngsters, and then moved on to the rotation guys. This time around, we're looking at how 2016-17 panned out for each of Toronto's starters.
Due to injuries, trades, and matchup issues, the Raptors' starting lineup varied throughout the season. But head coach Dwane Casey showed his hand in the playoffs. Even if the Milwaukee Bucks and Cleveland Cavaliers forced some tinkering, Toronto brass clearly envisioned a starting lineup of Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, DeMarre Carroll, Serge Ibaka and Jonas Valanciunas.
In truth, that group played just 88 minutes together all year. And frankly, they looked pretty woeful. When healthy, however, all five guys started more often than not. They may not be the starters next season, but they're the starters for our purposes.
So here's the deal: Each player will get an admittedly arbitrary grade that represents their progress and performances in 2016-17. These grades – and I cannot stress this enough – are relative to preseason expectations.
Jan 24, 2017; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Raptors forward DeMarre Carroll (5) warms up prior to the game against the San Antonio Spurs at Air Canada Centre. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports
DeMarre Carroll
Ask a Raptors fan before the season, and he or she probably would've been cautiously optimistic about DeMarre Carroll. After signing a four-year, $60 million contract with the Raptors in 2015, the 30-year-old endured a torrid first season with Toronto.
Carroll missed 56 games with knee issues that ultimately required arthroscopic surgery. And when he got back on the court, he didn't give the Raptors that same two-way, steady play he showed with the Atlanta Hawks.
2016-17 was supposed to be Carroll's first real season in Toronto. In reality, it went just as poorly.
Renowned as a 3-and-D specialist, Carroll shot just 34.1 percent from deep – not good enough for a guy whose wing partner is a total non-shooter in DeMar DeRozan. And how about the defense? Well, in both the regular season and the playoffs, the Raptors were markedly better defensively with Carroll off the court.
It doesn't help that Carroll is on a handsome contract. He looks like a third or fourth wing, and he's being paid like a starter. Toronto General Manager Masai Ujiri even came out and said this:
Injuries suck. That's just a fact of sports. Ujiri was hopeful that a fully healthy Carroll would get back to his best. Still, in all likelihood, the Raptors will shop Carroll. Nobody wants an aging, overpaid player with two more years left on his deal, but salary dumps still happen all the time. Just ask the Kings. A fresh start may be best for all parties.
Grade: D+
Next: Jonas Valanciunas
Apr 18, 2017; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Raptors center Jonas Valanciunas (17) shoots for a basket over Milwaukee Bucks forward Thon Maker (7) in game two of the first round of the 2017 NBA Playoffs at Air Canada Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
Jonas Valanciunas
Jonas Valanciunas is the exact player the NBA has left behind. He's a burly seven-footer without three-point range whose slow feet can be exposed on defense.
Valanciunas isn't just Jahlil Okafor Adjacent, though. For his entire career, he's been an absurdly efficient offensive player and a terrific rebounder. He's still that. And he was still that in 2016-17. But as a young center supposedly on the rise, Valanciunas didn't show much growth.
The big Lithuanian is still a reluctant passer on offense, meaning he's limited to post-ups and hard rolls to the basket. To date, he hasn't developed much of an elbow game.
Defensively, Valanciunas can still be played off the court. He averaged just 22.6 minutes per game in the playoffs, and in that time, opponents scored 111 points per 100 possessions. With Valanicunas on the bench, that number dipped to 105.2.
Make no mistake, Valanciunas maintained a high level of play this season. His $14.4 million salary was manageable, and looked much better than Carroll's deal.
The acquisition of Ibaka was unlucky for Valanciunas. Despite possessing the range and defensive ability that Valanciunas lacks, Ibaka simply couldn't coexist with Valanciunas. If Ibaka re-ups with Toronto, that fit may be a concern moving forward. Ibaka ultimately played 69 percent of his playoff minutes at the 5, which is the only position Valanciunas can credibly play.
Valanciunas is still just 25 years old and he deserves more time to become the dominant paint player he has the potential to be. In my opinion, actively shopping him in order to accommodate Ibaka would be a mistake.
Grade: C+
Next: Serge Ibaka
Apr 5, 2017; Auburn Hills, MI, USA; Toronto Raptors forward Serge Ibaka (9) puts his hands on his head during the third quarter against the Detroit Pistons at The Palace of Auburn Hills. The Raptors won 105-102. Mandatory Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports
Serge Ibaka
Two weeks ago, I wrote a piece suggesting the Raptors should move on from Ibaka. I'll refrain from rehashing too much of that column, but I stand by this: Ibaka had a decent season, but it didn't make much of a difference for Toronto.
Brought in to help solidify Toronto's defense and play off Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan on offense, Ibaka put up solid numbers. He had14.2 points, 6.8 rebounds and 1.4 blocks per game, while shooting a blistering 39.8 percent from three-point range.
Defensively, Ibaka helped bring Toronto's defensive rating from a middling 106.0 points per 100 possessions before his arrival to an elite 102.3 afterwards. He and P.J. Tucker largely offset the long-term absence of Lowry.
But Ibaka's warts, which may be more easily concealed on a different team, hurt Toronto at times. Ibaka can't pass. Period. And that's a problem for a team with so little playmaking. He takes too many turnaround jumpers. And that's a problem for a team that already lives on midrange shots. He and Valanciunas work poorly together (-1.8 net rating). And that's a problem when his backup, Patrick Patterson, works so well with Valanciunas (+13.7 net rating).
Ibaka did his job for the Raptors. He added more skill and athleticism to their frontline. Maybe Toronto falls to Milwaukee in the first round without Ibaka, although that seems to downplay the possible impact of Terrence Ross. With or without Ibaka, the Raptors weren't going to beat LeBron James and the Cavaliers.
The Congolese big man is a free agent this summer. Ujiri should think long and hard about the Cavaliers' dominance, and Ibaka's impact, before offering a new contract.
Grade: B
Next: Kyle Lowry
Kyle LowryKyle Lowry
Nov 18, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; Toronto Raptors guard Kyle Lowry (7) dribbles the ball as Denver Nuggets guard Emmanuel Mudiay (0) defends in the third quarter at the Pepsi Center. The Raptors won 113-111 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
Kyle Lowry
What a season for Kyle Lowry. The diminutive guard has long been Toronto's emotional leader and most experienced veteran, but this season, he took his individual game to yet another level.
At 31, Lowry just continues to improve. His 22-7-5 line was ridiculous, and becomes all the more impressive when you factor in his 56.9 effective field goal percentage. Lowry shot at career-high percentages on both twos and threes, ultimately canning an absurd 3.2 three-pointers per game.
More from Hoops Habit
Lowry's shot difficulty was extreme as well, with 1.9 of those three-pointers coming off the dribble — the most in the league behind only James Harden and Stephen Curry. Overall, the majority of his shots came with defenders within four feet of him, per NBA tracking data.
Lowry's aging legs logged 37.4 minutes per game and Toronto needed every second. The Raptors outscored opponents by 8.3 points per 100 possessions with Lowry on the court. They got outscored when he sat.
Once again, Lowry didn't have a sterling postseason. The Bucks and Cavs limited his shot attempts, meaning he wasn't able to impact games like he usually does. His ankle injury in Game 2 against Cleveland basically doomed the Raptors.
Now, Lowry is a free agent, and he'll be seeking a maximum contract. Toronto should do everything in their power to keep him. Lowry is a top 10 point guard – top six or seven at his best. If he leaves for Philadelphia or the Western Conference, the entire Raptors franchise will be thrown into flux.
Grade: A-
Next: DeMar DeRozan
2017 NBA Playoffs2017 NBA Playoffs
Apr 22, 2017; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Toronto Raptors guard DeMar DeRozan (10) dunks during the third quarter against the Milwaukee Bucks in game four of the first round of the 2017 NBA Playoffs at BMO Harris Bradley Center. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
DeMar DeRozan
When healthy, Lowry was probably better than DeRozan this season. That said, the latter's growth in year eight was as unexpected as it was valuable.
DeRozan is no longer a young player. 2016-17 was his age-27 season, and it was fair to assume before the season that he'd top out as a low-20s scorer without much else to his game. In truth, DeRozan didn't add much: His assists went down, his turnovers went up, and he's still not much of a rebounder or a defender. He also, of course, can't shoot a lick.
Still, the USC product became one of the best scorers in the NBA this season, which helped get him a (controversial) slot on the All-NBA Third Team. DeRozan's 27.3 points per game ranked fifth in the league, and he was typically ruthless from within 16 feet.
DeRozan finished the regular season in the league's 87th percentile on isolation plays and the 85th percentile on possessions finished as a pick-and-roll ballhandler. He's mastered those plays, and in the playoffs, Cleveland did everything they could to stop them. Even so, DeRozan broke free at times.
The next step in DeRozan's progression is to add more variety to his game. It's easy to imagine him attacking the paint off pindowns and curls. The dude is too athletic to stop with a running start. He's also a legitimate post-up threat, but only nine percent of his finished plays (those that end with a shot, turnover, or foul) came on the block.
DeRozan is the long-term foundation of the Raptors. Barring a remarkable turn of events, he's unlikely to move. But expectations will be higher next year for a player whose playing style is basically an affront to the analytics movement. Will he stagnate or keep on improving?
Grade: A-