The Utah Jazz Hype Train Still Rolling

The Utah Jazz hype train has been running at full steam. But is it fair to have such high expectations for a team that missed the playoffs last year?

We’re two weeks into the preseason and the Utah Jazz haven’t proven anything. The last couple years both began with playoff expectations and both years the young team and new coach fell short.

Why is this year’s team so hyped?

Depending on which media outlet you follow, Utah is slated to finish anywhere from outside the playoffs to third in the Western Conference. CBS Sports recently rated all starting lineups and bench units; Utah ended up fifth and first respectively. Meanwhile, ESPN’s Zach Lowe recently made his annual 30 “crazy” predictions and projected the Jazz to win 50 games.

Last year only six teams in the league cleared the 50 win mark and there was a clear division between those teams and the rest of the league. Winning 50 games in a season would put the Jazz up among the conference semi-finalists in almost every season

For a team that was swept from the playoffs in their last appearance there in 2012, this does sound “crazy.”

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Losing Gordon Hayward in the preseason through the end of November is obviously a bad start. Throw in Derrick Favors‘ IT band syndrome and the fact that no one has seen Alec Burks on the court yet and I can understand fans thinking to themselves, “Here we go again…”

Nevertheless, there is some good news. While Utah finished last season 40-42 (but let’s be honest, the Kobe game never happens if the Jazz don’t blow the Clipper game and knock themselves out of the playoffs, so in my mind they were 41-41 and in my mind, I’m never wrong), they finished the year 10th in the league in team plus/minus at plus-1.8.

They accomplished this despite Hayward’s perpetual bout with plantar fasciitis and missing Favors, Burks and Rudy Gobert for large portions of the season. Not to mention losing Dante Exum for the entire year.

The six teams that finished above the 50 win mark each had a team plus/minus of above four. For a reference point, let’s compare the difference between the Pelicans and the Rockets last year. Houston had a plus-0.03 point differential whereas New Orleans checked in at minus-3.8.

The nearly four-point difference per game meant 11 more wins to Houston. No two teams or seasons are alike, but this works for a practice exercise.

The additions of George Hill and Exum can’t be understated. Dennis Lindsey and Co. created a strength in the place of a significant weakness that will trickle down through the team. Defensively, Utah can be even better than last year with better health and the new additions, but anyone would accept the defense from last year.

The issue is an offense ranked 29th last season, which we can all agree is not good. This year, however, Utah has new options. Having good to above average point guard play is a wave that can raise all boats. Rodney Hood will improve going into his third year and both he and Hayward will take advantage of the better shots created for them as someone else can take over handling the ball.

Last year, Hayward was asked to handle the ball much more than he would have liked. He is a capable ball handler and is good enough creating for himself (42.9 effective field goal percentage) and others, but he is a better shooter off the ball (52.7 effective field goal percentage).

Favors and Gobert will also thrive with Hill running the pick-and-roll; teams will be unable to stop lobs or rolls with the added shooting that runs deep through the team. A league-average offense last year scored 102 points a game.