The Portland Trail Blazers Five by Five
The Five by Five is a one-off installment that dives into the 5 pros and 5 cons of the Blazers during this period of the season. These may be trends that have occurred, things to look out for or simply some fun facts about the Blazers.
First Three Pros
1. Aminu + Blazers = Improved Defense
The advanced metrics back the ‘eye-test’ in the fact that Aminu is the lone shining light on that side of the ball. Chief has the uncanny ability to guard 1 to 5, switch onto smaller guards by navigating their speed through screens, while also giving a brave effort at guarding the burlier big men inside. Amongst all players in the league and those that are contesting over seven shots a game, Aminu ranks third in defended field goal percentage (38.1). That is incredible for a guy who has teammates that truly bring the team down in perimeter defense.
2. Crabbe Punch!
Allen Crabbe has done his best to live up to the $75 million he was guaranteed over the summer. Stotts has seen the value with Crabbe’s slithery ability to navigate screens and shoot well off the bench. He has also been the beneficiary of drive and kicks where he is averaging 1.13 points per spot-up possession – better than Isaiah Thomas, Bradley Beal and Ryan Anderson.
He has moulded his game as a ‘3 and D’ player off the bench who knows his role when he comes in. The development of the sneaky one dribble pull-up when defenders close out (on his efficient shot) has proven equally deadly. In order for this to be sustainable, the playing time needs to remain consistent. Crabbe is putting in almost 30mpg from the wing, and just like the player in the next ‘PRO’, this is the only way his pay checks is justified. If they’re given a chance.
3. Evan Turner – The Second Handler
The season started on a bleak note for ‘ET’ who had come in with lofty expectations with his cap hit, and rightly so. But things have looked better for Turner in the new year. He has recently started for the Blazers and Stotts has made an effort to stunt the minutes so Turner is at least the second ball handler on the court. This starts where CJ McCollum is the early sub out and getting Turner on the ball as the facilitator. He’s working pick and rolls and letting Damian Lillard and CJ spot up and cut off the ball. If this continues, Dame and CJ will be fresh later in games as the season goes on. Good offense is also conducive to good defense, and that has certainly been the case with ET.
First Three Cons
1. Lillard = Not so Clutch
This has been an issue not just in 2017, but for the whole season. I’ll give you dessert first before the vegetables. He’s boasting the highest TS% (58.3), FG% (44.5) and FT% (89.6) for his career while having a PER of 23.0 – making this his most efficient season to date.
Now time for the veggies. ‘Lillard Time’ has been close to non-existent compared to his normal standards. In games with 2 minutes left in the game and a 5 point differential or less, Lillard has shot an abysmal 36.8% from the field. You probably don’t want to know what he is from beyond the arc, but I’ll tell you anyway. 14.3%.
This doesn’t even include how poor of a defender he is to have closing games. Something has been off with the Blazers all season long, and the lack of the signature ‘Lillard Time’ (pout while he taps his right wrist) has been evident of that.
Jan 21, 2017; Boston, MA, USA; Portland Trail Blazers forward Al-Farouq Aminu (8) drives to the basket past Boston Celtics center Kelly Olynyk (41) during the first half at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports
2. Chief of Offense?
35, 25 and 64. Those are Aminu’s percentage splits in respect to FG%, 3P% and FT%. Those are all about 10% lower than the league average. He was about an average shooter last year. He could spot up around the arc for spot up threes while the defense focused in on our guards. Aminu’s praise for defense has been mentioned above. But his offense? Clearly not so good.
His weird altered slingshot form is the first thing that irks me. He has an abysmal true shooting percentage of 43.6% and a PER of 9.76. Both are well below the league average and ranks the worst among all forwards in TS%. Secondly, his waist high dribble. Every time he puts the floor on the deck, he’s not creating enough separation on the first step and his head is down trying to bull rush his way to the rim. No surprise that he’s scoring on only 36.4% of his drives this season – worse than Dante Cunningham.
He may be the lone bright spot defensively, but the fact that he’s averaging 3 points less and has a offensive real plus-minus of -2.68 shows that his offense has been detrimental to the team this season.
3. Late Game Execution
10-13 (0.435). That is the record that the Blazers hold this season when it comes to ability to close out games in the clutch. It ranks 21st in the league behind the Phoenix Suns and the New Orleans Pelicans. This has been the combination of many factors, but the microscope comes down to shot selection and defensive execution.
This Blazer defense has proven to have many holes, and the fact that Dame-CJ close most games means should have an efficient offense. This has not been the case. Statistics and metrics show you what has happened, and the eye-test explains how it happened. In this scenario, the Blazers opt to not use Stotts’ ‘flow offense.’ That’s where players read and react off of one another, making it unpredictable – thus it’s hard to defend. Instead they resort to hero basketball with pick and rolls or a simple isolation: easy for a defense to counter. Those two plays are the most common in basketball, and Lillard pulling up from 26 feet may seem pretty if it falls – but 85.7% of the time it doesn’t.
The burden does not fall solely on the players, but the coaches as well. Let’s stop with this basic, late game execution and go back to what makes this team so dangerous.
Stay Tuned for Part 2 Tomorrow.
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