The Phoenix Suns' Biggest Position Weakness is at Small Forward

As the roster stands today, the Phoenix Suns have some depth at all five positions.

Suns fans can generally be pleased knowing who will be the starter at each spot and who the first backup will be as well – something that has not been a luxury of fans for a few years.

In fact, at both guard positions, we know who the third and fourth guys off the bench will be, a luxury especially in those instances of injuries and blowouts.

At the moment though, none of the five positions as a whole can be placed in the top echelon of the league, and the lack of overall talent within each positional group will likely prevent them from making a dramatic run to the playoffs this season.

Most notable, is the small forward position, which is the weakest of them all, a position that has been the most vulnerable for the Suns for some time.

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(All statistics courtesy of basketball-reference.com)

The weakness of the Small Forward Position

The current configuration of the Phoenix Suns’ roster is such that it provides the coaching staff with a lot of flexibility to move players around and work individual guys in at multiple positions. For instance, both Brandon Knight and Devin Booker are best suited as shooting guards because of their higher ability to score from anywhere on the court.

Yet last season was evidence that either can run the point as well with some effectiveness when needed, whether be it because of an injury to Eric Bledsoe, or as needed based on opponent.

PJ Tucker, Jared Dudley, and Marquese Chriss also can easily flex between the small forward and the power forward positions based on the size of lineup head Coach Earl Watson wants to use, which provides the team with multiple matchup opportunities depending on whether they need a bigger lineup for defensive purposes, or a smaller and more athletic lineup for scoring opportunities.

And yet, even with the ability to plug and play multiple players at several positions, the Small Forward positions still remains a relative weakness. Plus, at the moment, there just isn’t one player who has grabbed a hold of the position and shut down any talk of someone else taking over in the future. While there is talent, there just isn’t a positional leader who can be counted on game-in and game-out.

Breakdown, Breakdown, Breakdown

PJ Tucker [Note: Tucker underwent surgery on 9/15/16, and will miss 6-8 weeks]

At 6 foot 6 inches and 245 pounds, and with the relentless motor of a child on sugar, PJ Tucker is a coach’s dream defensively. Put him on a bigger and un-athletic opponent and PJ can match that guy pound for pound and out maneuver him on the court. Place PJ on a guy of similar size, and he is quick enough to keep his opponent in his sights and move in front for rebounds.

While a player like PJ is a luxury on any team, it is not a reason to have him start more often than not. Also, what else is he going to give you? He’s not a scoring threat, and even his favorite spot in the corner for quick 3’s isn’t enough to warrant that he even touches the ball on every possession.

Let’s not fool ourselves: while his relentless intensity on defense is something that we can all admire, it isn’t elite status in the league either. He’s going to get his hands in passing lanes and dive for loose balls, but he can’t out jump most players.

While you’d figure a guy with his girth and intensity could get you 10+ rebounds a game, his paltry career average of 5.9 rebounds every night out with the Phoenix Suns leaves much to be desired.

Speaking of desire, my want is for P.J. Tucker to eventually be traded. He is a nice player, and a good guy by all accounts, but as a starter – something he has done 84% of the time in Phoenix – he is not a player to be feared by opponents, and offensively is a general liability.

I believe that the Suns should find a team making a Championship run in December or January who needs an energetic sixth man, and demand a first round pick from them.

No need to replace him with another body if possible, and while a first round pick from a playoff team is going to be low, to accumulate such things is to stockpile opportunity down the road.

TJ Warren

Since the moment he was drafted, myself and many Suns fans alike have made the comparison that TJ Warren can be the next Cedric Ceballos for the Phoenix Suns. At 6’8” and 230 pounds, athletic, and with an uncanny knack for scoring the ball, when healthy TJ Warren is a matchup nightmare for his opponents.

His ability to run the floor like a gazelle and hit quick shots like a sniper, makes him the kind of player every coach would love to have on their roster, and at 23 he has plenty of time to grow and develop into a regular starter and high efficiency scorer.

The problem is, as I noted above, the young gun currently can’t stay healthy long enough to fully realize the potential as the type of player he seems destined to be. Thus his play on the court has not shown the growth and development that the Suns need to see from him on the court over the course of a whole season.

However, this isn’t to say that his two years with the Suns has been a total dud. On the contrary, he has shown to be a solid contributor when he gets to play.

Even with his injuries and his role as a bench player, Warren managed to average 11 points per game in only 22.8 minutes in 2015-16. One would have to assume that if he could average over 30 minutes per game as a regular starter, that he will certainly find himself closer to 20 points per game scoring, especially if he maintains a solid field goal percentage.

A good field goal percentage is a stat that (while for TJ it dropped from his rookie to sophomore season from .528-.501) for a scorer that takes mid-range shots, would certainly allow him to score the ball at a high clip when finally able to stay on the court for the majority of the game.

To continue the Warren and Ceballos narrative, Cedric led the league in field goal percentage in 1992-93. Granted his .576 percentage that season was a 90 point jump from the season before and a 40 point leap over his second best shooting season the year following, their similar style of play leads one to believe that TJ should have the ability to be a high efficiency scorer.

Warren will undoubtedly take more three’s than Ceballos ever did, which will hurt his overall field goal percentage. But should that rate be lower, and he still maintain a decent success rate from behind the arc, the comparison will ring true.

My desire for TJ Warren is to become the starting small forward immediately. His skill set needs to develop, and his scoring will prove to be a significant boon for the Phoenix Suns, especially when they are able to run the ball efficiently.

If P.J. Tucker is traded and the three becomes Warren’s for good, I do believe the Suns will see an improvement at the small forward position moving forward. His quickness and athleticism, combined with his height and length, does allow him to guard a wide range of players from tall Shooting Guards to smaller Power Forwards. But it is his offensive game that may truly make his special.

Marquese Chriss

The Suns believe that Marques Chriss has a very bright NBA future. Most Suns fans are giddy with excitement at the opportunity to see him don the purple and orange (and black).

But he is far from ready to take on any significant role, and his defensive lapses will have to be rectified or his offensive abilities may not be enough to make him an everyday starter in the future, regardless of where he plays.

At 6’9” and 225 pounds, Chriss is far more similar to TJ Warren than to PJ Tucker. However, his athleticism and leaping ability sets him apart from both. On the high side, he can be compared to a hybrid of Shawn Marion and Amare Stoudemire. On the low end, he can be compared to Hakim Warrick. Ugh.

Regardless, in taller lineups, he will be playing a lot at small forward, and while his athleticism and pogo stick-like leaping ability will provide signs of the possibility of future stardom, he is currently too raw to be counted on with any regularity, meaning that this season Marquese Chriss will certainly not play a major factor at the three.

My desire though is that he plays as much as he can and gains as much experience as possible this season, hopefully pushing along his development at a relatively quick clip. His athleticism and knack for getting to the rim is uncanny, and something that will remind fans of great small forwards of the Phoenix Suns’ past.

If Marquese Chriss can average 15 minutes on the court per game this season, and 20 minutes next season, then I believe that these next few years will help him develop quickly, allowing the Suns brass the opportunity to know sooner rather than later the kind of player he will be in the NBA.

However, if his defensive lapses hold him back early on, and if he relies too much on his athleticism and doesn’t learn the cerebral aspects of the position, then his development may take a little bit longer, and eventually the Suns may have problems keeping him on their roster – especially if TJ Warren becomes the high scoring Small Forward he appears capable of becoming.

The Conclusion on the Position of Small Forward

Fortunately the direction the Suns are taking does offer fans hope for the future at the Small Forward position. And someday soon management may reach a point where either TJ Warren or Marquesse Chriss will have to be moved from the roster because the other has taken a commanding grasp of the three. This truly is a good problem to have, all things considered.

Since the Suns have finally decided to go all in on a youth movement allowing a core of young players to develop together (much like the Phoenix Suns of the 2001-2003 seasons before the addition of Steve Nash) this should bode well for TJ Warren and Marquese Chriss as they will likely see plenty of time on the court when healthy.