Ric Bucher's NBA Notebook: New rules impacting James Harden and Damian Lillard

By Ric Bucher
FOX Sports NBA Analyst

The new rule interpretation on shooting fouls this season, designed to stop shooters from leaning into defenders, has clearly impacted several of the NBA’s perennial top scorers.

But not all of them. Some are actually scoring at a better clip than previous seasons. So what’s the difference?

Look no further than the Brooklyn Nets for a case study. Kevin Durant is averaging his highest point total in seven seasons, at 28.3 through eight games, despite shooting only 37.5% on 3-pointers, decidedly worse than his 45% last season. Plus, he's averaging only 4.9 points at the free-throw line, his worst production there since his rookie season. The flip side is he’s shooting 59% overall, far and away the best of his career.

Teammate James Harden is at the other end of the spectrum. His 18.3 points are the lowest since his third season in the league, when he was a sixth man for the Oklahoma City Thunder. Not getting to the free-throw line as often doesn’t account for the decline by itself, seeing as he’s averaging 4.6 points on free throws, only a slight dip from his 6.3 last season while averaging 24.6 points overall.

Could the answer be the difference in their shot-making ability in the midrange — an area that Durant has never abandoned, while Harden did during his analytics-driven days in Houston?

"Yes, I would tend to agree with that," one NBA scout said. "Most of the top players in the league are great in the midrange: Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, Paul George. Sure, they can shoot 3s, too, but they have the size and strength, or length, to score through contact either at the rim or in the midrange."

The theory makes sense when looking at who else has climbed to the top of the individual scoring table. George is leading the league with a career-high 28.9 points per game, despite making fewer average free throws than in any of the past six seasons. Durant is second, followed by Giannis Antetokounmpo and a midrange maestro, DeMar DeRozan. All except Antetokounmpo are scoring more than they did a year ago.

Conversely, a host of undersized guards — Trae Young, Damian Lillard and Steph Curry — have seen their averages slide, no one more than Lillard, with a whopping 10-point dip.

"Basically, a lot of the moves that those guys were using are the ones that they targeted to remove from the game," the NBA scout said. "Especially a lot of the side-step and step-back moves into defenders, which is what Dame and Trae did a lot. A lot of those moves were to create contact but also to create some separation in order to get their shot off because of their lack of height and length."

No one mastered forcing a defender into what was previously considered illegal contact more than Harden, though. What is puzzling is that, unlike Young, Lillard and Curry, the 6-foot-5, 220-pound Harden has the size and strength to finish through contact at the rim. But he clearly is not: His 42% shooting inside the arc is the lowest since his rookie year.

One theory is that Harden perfected the art of creating contact over scoring through contact. "I’m all for the new rules," one NBA talent evaluator said. "Harden was the worst at generating fake scores." 

Or the best, depending on your perspective.

There are a few other factors that have impacted the top scorers beyond the new rules interpretation. The league-wide shooting percentage has dropped from 46.6 last season to 44.7 so far, the first decline in eight seasons and the lowest since the 2004-05 season.

Why is that? One factor might be that the league has introduced a new ball manufacturer, Wilson, replacing Spalding after a 37-year run. There also appears to be an uptick in teams utilizing bigger lineups with the allowance of more contact at the rim.

It is, of course, also early in the season. NBA players as talented as Harden, Lillard and Young generally find ways to adjust. Lillard’s struggles, one GM speculated, could be a result of fewer plays being run for him under new Trail Blazers head coach Chauncey Billups and carryover fatigue from playing in the Tokyo Olympics. While Lillard’s free-throw production has been cut in half (from 6.7 last season to 3.5), his 3-point-shooting dip from 39% last season to 23.4% this year has had the biggest impact.

For now, though, it would appear that a course correction — or a return to previous norms — is underway. Size and midrange shooting once again matter.

"That," the talent evaluator said, "is my hope."

Zion is back — and bigger than ever

NBA executives were alarmed by the sight of 2019 No. 1 pick Zion Williamson, both on the court working out before a recent New Orleans Pelicans game while he continues to recover from offseason foot surgery and his appearance in a commercial promoting snack chips and a soft drink.

Williamson, whose weight issues are believed to be a contributing factor to the injuries that have limited him to 85 games through his first three seasons so far, appeared to be considerably over his listed weight of 284 pounds in the video clip of him working out.

One Eastern Conference GM was stunned at how heavy Williamson looked. "Had to hit replay a couple of times," he said. 

Another GM questioned the wisdom of having a player whose diet has been questioned appear in a commercial endorsing chips and soda. Williamson and Chicago Bulls star Zach LaVine appear together in the commercial, and one source estimated that they were paid in the $200,000 range for the endorsement. The GM didn’t take issue with LaVine, listed at 6-foot-5 and 200 pounds, appearing in the ad, but Williamson was a different story.

"You’re putting him in a place that sends the absolute wrong message," he said.

The Pelicans recently announced that Williamson is "progressing" in his rehabilitation but still several weeks from full participation in practice. 

Brad Stevens: A one-and-done?

Boston Celtics GM Brad Stevens, who moved from head coach to the front office to replace the departed Danny Ainge, was lauded for his offseason moves. Stevens acquired Celtics big men alumni Al Horford and Enes Kanter and signed point guard Dennis Schroder to a one-year, $5.89 million contract as a free agent, $10 million less than he made playing for the Lakers last season. 

But several GMs say Stevens misses coaching, and the move to the front office was a favor to the Celtics, providing stability in the wake of Ainge’s departure after 18 years as the franchise’s architect. A league source didn’t dispute that but dismissed the idea that Stevens is ready to get back on the bench, citing his enjoyment of the increased time the position has allowed him with his wife and two kids.

The offseason moves, however, haven’t been as beneficial as anticipated so far, with the Celtics losing five of their first eight games.

Tommy Sheppard’s sneaky strong moves

The Washington Wizards have had the opposite start from the Celtics, winning five of their first eight games. Several GMs have applauded the work of the Wizards’ Tommy Sheppard, who signed incumbent star Bradley Beal to a two-year extension last summer and then flipped Russell Westbrook in a five-team deal that landed Spencer Dinwiddie from the Nets and Kyle Kuzma, Montrezl Harrell and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope from the Lakers. Aaron Holiday and 31st pick Isaiah Todd also joined the Wizards as part of the trade.

"Tommy has done a really nice job," one Western Conference GM said. "They’re just as relevant as any of those midtier teams in the Eastern Conference: Chicago, Boston and Toronto. That’s a pretty good haul he got for Westbrook, a max-contract guy no one was living and dying to get. And those are all moveable contracts."

That is important because Beal can opt out of his contract this summer. However this season goes, the Wizards’ ability to upgrade their roster if needed could be an important factor in persuading Beal to re-up once again.

Ric Bucher is an NBA writer for FOX Sports. He previously wrote for Bleacher Report, ESPN The Magazine and The Washington Post and has written two books, "Rebound," the story of NBA forward Brian Grant’s battle with young onset Parkinson’s, and "Yao: A Life In Two Worlds," the story of NBA center Yao Ming. He also has a daily podcast, "On The Ball with Ric Bucher." Follow him on Twitter @RicBucher.