Processing the Philadelphia 76ers' perennial playoff problems

By Yaron Weitzman
Published

Entering the season, the Philadelphia 76ers knew they'd reached the point where regular season results no longer mattered. In a way, reaching this phase as a franchise is a compliment; you only graduate to this level if you're able to string together multiple successful campaigns and the Sixers, to their credit, have done just that. This is their sixth-straight season making the playoffs. Over that stretch only six teams have won more games.

The problem is that among those six only two have failed to reach the conference finals. One is the Utah Jazz, who have already been torn out. The other is — you guessed it — the Sixers. 

This is why you'd be hard-pressed to find a team entering this postseason with more at stake. Winning 54 games, like the Sixers did this season, is impressive. But no one will care if they bow out in the second round for the fifth time in six years. 

More than that, think about the résumés of all the key figures within the organization. Do you know what Joel Embiid's career field goal percentage is in the second round? How about 43.3%. You certainly know about James Harden's, um, playoff struggles. Also, don't forget that he can be an unrestricted free agent this summer and — as has been widely reported and which FOX Sports can confirm — has long been considering a Houston return. 

Also, also: don't forget that this is Year 3 in Philadelphia for both Daryl Morey and Doc Rivers — who were both recruited by ownership and handed huge contracts — and that thus far that duo has been unable to lead the Sixers any further than their predecessors. Never mind that the lone thing missing from Morey's trailblazing-résumé is a title and how, while Rivers has one of his own, that came way back in 2008 and in the years' since he's become more known for blowing 3-1 leads. Put this all together, and toss in an ownership group that has yet to reach the conference finals since purchasing the team in 2011, and you get a picture of just how combustible this whole situation is. 

Everyone within the Sixers knows this. It's why before the season Morey and Rivers and Embiid and Harden were all so candid about how their respective summers were about addressing specific playoff needs that have repeatedly sunk this team. Now that that postseason has arrived, let's, well, process Philadelphia's perennial playoff problems and see if these holes were indeed plugged.

PERENNIAL PROBLEM NO. 1

"One thing Coach identified that made things challenging in the playoffs, especially, was the lack of players who can play both sides of the ball which become more important in the playoffs. That was a priority for (general manager) Elton (Brand) and myself." 

— Daryl Morey, Sixers 2022 media day

This is going to sound like an oversimplification but so many playoff results in recent years have boiled down to which teams can put five players on the court who can all shoot, dribble and play defense. The Sixers in recent years have been on the short end of this equation. 

Just think of all the one-way players they've relied on, both stars and role players. Ben Simmons and Matisse Thybulle have been ignored on offense, which has ruined the Sixers' spacing and eliminated driving lanes. Seth Curry and James Harden have been relentlessly targeted in pick and rolls. 

"You can get away with the one with guys all year, all through the regular season," Rivers said Sunday before the Sixers' final regular season game. "And then the playoffs come and then those guys that can just score or just defend, they get put on the island and it's hard for them and it's hard for the coach. You've got to play them in the right space with the right people. It takes a lot of thought and putting the one way guys on the floor."

Before the season, the Sixers made multiple moves to address this issue: They signed P.J. Tucker and Danuel House Jr. and traded for De'Anthony Melton. Then they dealt for Jalen McDaniels before the trade deadline. House has been a bust, but Tucker and Melton give Embiid the best cast of role players he's ever had.

"I think we've improved in that," Rivers said Sunday in Brooklyn when I asked him whether he felt his team's lack of two-way players had been addressed. "The last piece was probably Jalen.

Melton drilled 39% of his 3-point looks during the regular season and was even better on catch-and-shoot attempts (41.8%). He also became the Sixers' best perimeter defender. Tucker spent most of the regular season looking like a car with a donut tire on, but he'll be operating at full speed during the playoffs. When the effort is there, he's still a dangerous shooter from the corners who often extends possessions by darting to the offensive glass like a wrecking ball. His defense, meanwhile, remains above-average — especially his ability to switch across positions. McDaniels' shooting makes him less of a sure thing — he hit 40% of his 3s in 24 games with the Sixers, but only attempted 1.9 per game — but he's a rangy, bouncy, 6-foot-9 wing. 

Between Tucker, Melton and Tobias Harris, the Sixers have three very capable-two way players to slot alongside their stars. That's the good news. The bad news is that two of their top three scorers — Harden and Tyrese Maxey — are borderline one-way players themselves. 

On defense, Maxey's effort is there, but he's slight and often dies on screens. Harden has the opposite problem. The Sixers' season may very well come down to their ability to get stops when Harden and Maxey share the floor. During the regular season, the team held its own in those minutes, limiting opponents to top-10 equivalent scoring margin. But the playoffs, as Rivers pointed out, are a different game. For the Sixers to overcome the one-way skillsets of their star backcourt, they're going to need their two-way role players to be at the top of their games. 

So, problem solved?

Maybe? Sort of? Yes and no? The best answer is probably: TBD 

PERENNIAL PROBLEM NO. 2

"The big thing we saw is how hard it was for them to get him the ball. We knew the roster had added better passers and shooters — which would open up the floor — but we wanted to do everything we could to prepare him so that he can still dominate in a playoff game where post touches could be hard to get." 

— Drew Hanlen, trainer to Joel Embiid, pre-season interview with FOX Sports 

The biggest difference in this year's Sixers, and the evolution that should have their fans most optimistic: Their best player has never been more prepared for the postseason.

As great as Embiid is, his playoffs performances have been sort of meh. His career postseason scoring average of 24 points per game is fine, but far from dominant. More telling is how he's struggled whenever the Sixers have reached the second round. It's not just the poor shooting, it's also the 87 turnovers in 23 games. He's been stonewalled by Al Horford and Marc Gasol. He's been fooled by Celtics help schemes. 

That will not be an issue this time. Embiid's primary office is no longer the post, where it can be hard to receive the ball and where he can be blindsided by double-teams. Last year he posted up 9.8 times per game, according to Second Spectrum tracking data; this year that number fell to 6.5  He's instead moved out to the elbows. According to Second Spectrum's tracking, he received the ball at those spots 8.8 times per game, nearly double his mark from last season and a number trailing only Nikola Jokic. 

This migration only works because Embiid has become one of the league's premier mid range jump shooters. He drilled 48.7% of his mid-range looks this season, according to NBA Advanced Stats, a mark in line with assassins like Devin Booker, DeMar DeRozan and Kawhi Leonard. From these spots he can also get to the rim with one dribble and better anticipate the defense's reactions. 

Embiid's evolution into a burly, Kobe-esque 7-footer isn't just one that has the potential of propelling the Sixers through the postseason. It's also the sort of progression that, given how special Embiid has become, we may look back on a decade from now as being one of the most significant in the history of the game. 

Problem solved?

Hells yes! 

PERENNIAL PROBLEM NO. 3

"Coach Doc said something in the locker room recently: This is a 'we' season, not a 'me' season." 

— Tyrese Maxey, Sixers 2022 media day

No player on the Sixers has had a great spotlight on them this season than James Harden. By now we're all familiar with his playoff track record and his disappearing act in the Sixers' final playoff game last season. 

Harden entered this season with a choice: Cede some of the spotlight to Embiid and help the Sixers reach their ceiling, or chase numbers and try proving to the world that he's still the player he once was. Basically, "me" or "we." 

Harden chose the latter. Whether it was because he recognized that it was best for the team or just a reaction to his burst not being what it once was, Harden completely rejiggered his game. He became a table-setter, even leading the league in assists. His objective has been to set up others, namely Embiid in the pick-and-sort-of-roll; Harden assisted on 244 of Embiid's made baskets this season, the league's top mark and nearly 100 more than the second-place tandem. 

What's interesting is that once the Sixers get deeper into the playoffs they'll probably need Harden to tweak his game again and be more aggressive hunting his own shot. Not by dancing at the top of the key and pounding the ball into the floor 12 times, but when coming off an Embiid screen. Only 12% of Harden's shot attempts came at the rim this season, by far a career low. Look for defenses to start playing him to pass on pick-and-rolls and sell out to keep Embiid from getting the ball (as an example, check out at where Giannis keeps his hand on this play). 

Problem solved?

Yes.

PERENNIAL PROBLEM NO. 4

"It's mental toughness. I think that part of it, I don't think we have yet…I think, at times, for our group, too many things just affected us as a whole. We drop our heads too much, our body language at times is crappy."

— Tobias Harris, May 2022, following Sixers' season-ending playoff loss to Miami Heat

"You look at someone like P.J. Tucker. Great player, but it's not about him knocking down shots. … He's just physical, and he's tough ... We never had P.J. Tucker. That's really what I'm trying to say. So, I think physicality – especially once you get to the playoffs or the later rounds – you need that. You need those guys that are really tough.

— Joel Embiid, May 2022, following Sixers' season-ending playoff loss to Miami Heat

Talking about the mental toughness of athletes is always tough. For one, it's not something you can quantify. Also, it's usually not something you realize is lacking until after the fact. But you can sometimes spot indicators along the way. Road record is typically considered one. Same with performance in crunch time and comeback victories. 

So, how did the Sixers fare in these areas this season?

  • Road record: 25-16, 2nd in NBA
  • Clutch time (games within five points within the final five minutes) record: 28-17, 3rd in NBA
  • Clutch time net rating: +16.6, first in NBA
  • Three wins in games where they were trailing by 20 or more points.

It's worth pointing out that last season the Sixers were a great road team and solid in clutch time (24-21, +3.1), and we all know how that ended. But the vibes this year do feel different. 

"Guys are staying together," Embiid said after the Sixers erased a 20-point Portland Trail Blazers lead in March. "We're mentally tough. You know, a lot of times in the past, probably down 20, guys would probably be like, ‘Game's over, let's move on to the next one.' But we keep going, and we keep finding ways offensively and defensively." 

Problem solved?

They signed P.J. Tucker. 

PERENNIAL PROBLEM NO. 5

"This is the first year we don't have a 7-footer as a backup … We have a collection of guys with P.J., Paul Reed, Trez. We feel very comfortable in that role." 

— Doc Rivers, Sixers 2022 media day 

Pop quiz: Which of the following players have served as Joel Embiid's primary backup in previous postseason runs?

A) DeAndre Jordan
B) Dwight Howard
C) Boban Marjanović
D) Greg Monroe


The answer is … all of the above! And I didn't even mention stalwarts like Mike Scott (which slid Ben Simmons to the 5 on defense) and Jonah Bolden.

Finding someone capable of holding the fort while Embiid rests has been a problem that has crippled the Sixers over the past six seasons. It's not even that the Sixers have regularly failed to hold leads without Embiid on the floor; it's that they've hemorrhaged points at a Generals vs. Globetrotters rate. Case in point:

And remember, that's a series the Sixers lost on a Game 7 buzzer-beater!

This season, as Rivers alluded to in the quote above, the Sixers are trying something different. There's no plodding 7-footer coming in to relieve Embiid. They tried Montrezl Harrell. That didn't work. For now, they seem to have settled on rolling with either Tucker, who can be the "big" in a switch-everything, small-ball scheme, or the bouncy-but-raw Paul Reed.

The data on the Tucker-led lineups this season is a bit murky. Overall, the Sixers were torched when he played without Embiid and Reed (outscored by nine points per 100 non-garbage time possessions, per Cleaning the Glass), with the damage coming on the defensive end of the floor. However, when Tucker played alongside the quarter of Harden, Maxey, Harris and Melton the Sixers thrived (+11.6). That seems like a lineup Rivers should be able to build his substitution patterns around. 

Reed, meanwhile, sopped up most of the backup center minutes over the season's final couple of months. The 23-year-old showed flashes of competence over that stretch, averaging 13.3 minutes, six points and 4.8 rebounds in 25 games since the All-Star break. The team performed well in those minutes, too (+7.5 points per 100 possessions). 

"I think for me, I just eliminated all the mental mistakes," he told reporters recently. "That kind of helped build the trust from the coaches. I feel like defending and finishing around the rim is something I've always been good at. So for me, it was just eliminating all the mental mistakes during the game and building the trust and that's what helped me solidify my position if it is solidified."

The question will be whether he can hold his own during the playoffs as opponents repeatedly target him on pick-and-rolls. Also, in games where every possession counts, there's no space for sequences like this. 

Give the Sixers credit for this: They seem to have better options for giving Embiid some rest than they've had in the past. We'll know in a few weeks whether they're good enough. 

Problem solved?

It seems like they did.

Yaron Weitzman is an NBA writer for FOX Sports and the author of Tanking to the Top: The Philadelphia 76ers and the Most Audacious Process in the History of Professional Sports. Follow him on Twitter @YaronWeitzman.

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