Phoenix Suns: 2016-17 Season Outlook

The Phoenix Suns are on the precipice of a full-scale rebuild, but they also have enough talent to once again aim high for a playoff spot. What should be expected of them in 2016-17?

Mar 21, 2016; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Phoenix Suns guard Devin Booker (1) dribbles the ball up the court in the first half of the game against the Memphis Grizzlies at Talking Stick Resort Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jennifer Stewart-USA TODAY Sports

When general manager Ryan McDonough took over the franchise in 2013, the Phoenix Suns were set for a full-scale rebuild.

But thanks to the surprising success of the 48-win Suns, who tied the 2007-08 Golden State Warriors as the winningest team in NBA history to not make the playoffs, Phoenix’s rebuild was accelerated, and they’ve been trying to build from the middle up ever since.

Coming off a 2015-16 season that was plagued with injuries, locker room discontent and a disconnect between head coach Jeff Hornacek and his players, the Suns bottomed out to earn the fourth overall pick in this year’s draft and dive further into an emerging youth movement.

However, with Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight returning from season-ending injuries and veteran fan favorite Jared Dudley returning home to play power forward, the Suns could very easily opt to pursue a playoff spot in their first season under head coach Earl Watson.

Watson, who took over the job as the interim head coach in the wake of Hornacek’s firing, has emphasized building a better culture and fostering the growth of the younger players. But will the Suns actually abide by those principles in 2016-17?

Phoenix has badly needed a full-scale rebuild — meaning around a couple of lost seasons and smart drafting — for half a decade now. The 2016-17 season could mark a full immersion into that doctrine…or another unfortunate speed bump obstructing the path back to prominence.

2015-16 Vitals

23-59, 4th in Pacific Division, 14th in Western Conference
100.9 PPG (22nd)/107.5 OPP PPG (28th)
102.2 Offensive Rating (28th)/109.0 Defensive Rating (25th)

Team Leaders
Scoring: Eric Bledsoe, 20.4 PPG
Rebounding: Tyson Chandler, 8.7 RPG
Assists: Eric Bledsoe, 6.1 APG
Steals: Eric Bledsoe, 2.0 SPG
Blocks: Alex Len, 0.8 BPG

Honors
NBA All-Rookie First Team: Devin Booker

Sep 28, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Phoenix Suns guard Brandon Knight (left) and guard Eric Bledsoe pose for a portrait during media day at Talking Stick Resort Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

2016-17 Roster

Leandro Barbosa, SG
Dragan Bender, PF
Eric Bledsoe, PG
Devin Booker, SG
Tyson Chandler, C
Marquese Chriss, PF
Jared Dudley, PF
Archie Goodwin, SG
John Jenkins, SG
Brandon Knight, PG
Alex Len, C
P.J. Tucker, SF
Tyler Ulis, PG
T.J. Warren, SF
Alan Williams, PF

Offseason Additions
Leandro Barbosa (free agent, Golden State Warriors), Dragan Bender (No. 4 overall draft pick, Croatia), Marquese Chriss (No. 8 overall pick via Sacramento Kings, Washington), Jared Dudley (free agent, Washington Wizards), Tyler Ulis (No. 34 overall draft pick, Kentucky)

Offseason Subtractions
Chase Budinger (free agent, unsigned), Jon Leuer (free agent, Detroit Pistons), Ronnie Price (free agent, Oklahoma City Thunder), Mirza Teletovic (free agent, Milwaukee Bucks)

Quick Thoughts

By and large, the Suns look similar to their 2015-16 rendition that won a grand total of 23 games. With Bledsoe (51 games missed), Knight (30 games) and T.J. Warren (35 games) all back and healthy, however, Phoenix should be a more competitive team in 2016-17.

Alex Len is still going to be battling to prove he’s ready to surpass Tyson Chandler as the team’s starting center. Archie Goodwin is still stuck in a log-jammed backcourt, Bledsoe is still Phoenix’s best two-way player and in a best-case scenario, the Suns still project to be one of the first teams to narrowly miss out on a playoff spot in the West.

However, there are some key changes to personnel that suggest another tanking season could be in effect, especially if injury-prone guys like Bledsoe and Knight struggle to stay on the court again.

In the draft, the Suns snagged three promising rookies in Dragan Bender, Marquese Chriss and Tyler Ulis. Ulis may earn real burn as the team’s only option at point guard when Bledsoe and Knight both need a rest, but the big upside lies with the 19-year-old and 18-year-old power forwards.

Bender and Chriss will take time to develop into franchise cornerstones as boom-or-bust candidates from this year’s draft, which is why Dudley’s return to Phoenix is about more than just bringing back a former fan favorite.

Sure, the returns of Dudley and Leandro Barbosa carry a sense of nostalgia, but they’re also crucial additions if only for the veteran presence they’ll bring to a young locker room. Those two were around for the franchise’s last glory years with Steve Nash, and Dudley’s arrival prevents Bender or Chriss from being fed to the wolves from day one.

Mar 4, 2016; Orlando, FL, USA; Phoenix Suns center Alex Len (21) is congratulated by center Tyson Chandler (4) during the second half at Amway Center. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Three Key Storylines: 1. What’s The Goal For This Season?

Just because the Suns are well-poised to launch into their youth movement doesn’t mean they’ll be eager to embrace that longer path, however. Keep in mind, this is a franchise with an impatient owner and a fan base that has not made the playoffs in six — going on seven — years.

The Suns are the NBA’s fourth winningest franchise of all time, but they’ve never won a title. They haven’t appealed to marquee free agents since the days of Steve Nash and that’s unlikely to change anytime soon — unless someone like Devin Booker lives up to the hype and becomes a bonafide star.

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In any case, the Suns will be straddling the line between appeasing the older starters who want to be a playoff-competitive team and feeding the youngsters the developmental minutes they need to accelerate the rebuild.

In looking at the roster, it’s easy to pick out the youngsters that the Suns hope will be foundational pieces of a playoff team one day. Booker (19), Len (23), Warren (23), Bender (18), Chriss (19) and Ulis (20) all enter the season 23 years or younger. Even guys looking to prove their long-term place in Phoenix like Archie Goodwin (22), Brandon Knight (24) and Alan Williams (23) are under 25.

But with a projected starting lineup of Bledsoe (26), Knight (24), P.J. Tucker (31), Jared Dudley (31) and Tyson Chandler (33), the Suns could very well fall into the trap they’ve fallen in far too often since McDonough took over: fruitlessly chasing a playoff spot, falling short and missing out on a top prospect in the draft.

The Suns righted that situation last season, but it was borne of injuries and Markieff Morris drama, not intention. Phoenix is perfectly positioned to embrace their status as a rebuilding team, but whether or not they actually do so by giving big minutes to the young building blocks remains to be seen.

Apr 7, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; Phoenix Suns guard Devin Booker (1) reacts after a play during the first quarter against the Houston Rockets at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Three Key Storylines: 2. Booker vs. Knight

At the forefront of this debate about youth vs. remaining competitive is the question over who should be the team’s starting shooting guard. Bledsoe, the team’s best player, has easily proven his merit as the starting 1-guard, but many believe Devin Booker — not Brandon Knight — should be starting alongside him as soon as 2016-17.

At this point in time, Knight is the better player. As promising as Booker’s rookie season was, he’s still only 19 years old. He needs to put on strength, he’s a woeful defender, and as we saw down the stretch of last season, his three-point efficiency took a nosedive as starter’s minutes piled on.

There’s also a similar dynamic to this backcourt logjam as there was when the Suns struggled to share the ball between Bledsoe, Goran Dragic and Isaiah Thomas — a situation of discontent McDonough will be keen to avoid this time around.

Until he recently dialed back his comments, Knight had been adamantly opposed to a sixth man role, envisioning a starting role for himself. Asking him to share the backcourt with Bledsoe has been an adjustment as it is, and demoting him to bench duty could quickly create another uncomfortable situation that has been too common in Phoenix over the last two years.

However, there are plenty of arguments to be made for Booker getting the nod at starting shooting guard, especially if the Suns are ready to fully invest in their young core.

Although Knight is currently the better player, that’s not saying much in comparison to a 19-year-old rookie — even one who became the team’s No. 1 option with half the team injured. Knight is a miserable defender in his own right, he’s not much of a playmaker, he turns the ball over too much, his shot selection is questionable at best, and on nights when he doesn’t heat up, his streakiness takes its toll.

Meanwhile, Booker is coming off a very promising rookie campaign — defensive deficiencies aside. He only averaged 13.8 points per game on the season, but he reached the 30-point threshold six times, put up 19.2 points per game after the All-Star Break, and showed signs of maturity far beyond his age at only 19 years old.

Sure, his efficiency dipped. But with Bledsoe, Knight and Warren sidelined, plus Markieff Morris being traded at the deadline, defenses were able to key in on the rookie and his efficiency slipped because of it. He only shot 34.3 percent from three-point range — his most trademark skill — but that was a byproduct of the defensive attention he received more than anything else.

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Booker has already displayed an ability to manipulate pick-and-roll sets and act as a secondary playmaker. His shooting stroke is pure, which makes him a better fit at the 2-spot alongside a ball-dominant guard like Bledsoe. It won’t be long before Booker has sets run for him like Klay Thompson does as an off-ball cutter and spot-up shooter.

Knight is a flawed and injury-prone player, and despite his intelligence and benevolent work in the community, he seems best suited for a sixth man role. Why not jump the gun a bit, let Booker take his lumps as a starter, allow Knight to get his shots up off the bench, and let the losses pile on with the prospect of a top pick in a loaded 2017 NBA Draft class serving as compensation for it all?

He’s only played one year in the league, but Devin Booker has already established himself as the most exciting rookie the Suns have had since Amar’e Stoudemire. He could very well be a franchise player one day, but it remains to be seen if Phoenix is ready to make the ballsy move of starting him in Year 2.

Jun 23, 2016; New York, NY, USA; Dragan Bender walks off the stage after being selected as the number four overall pick to the Phoenix Suns in the first round of the 2016 NBA Draft at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Three Key Storylines: 3. The Rookies

Jared Dudley’s arrival fills the roster’s gaping hole at power forward, but there’s no question fans’ ears will perk up any time either of Dragan Bender or Marquese Chriss takes the floor.

That’s not only because the Suns should be emphasizing their youth movement, but also because — let’s face it — rookies are almost always the most exciting part of the season for non-playoff teams!

On the one hand, you’ve got the 7’2″ Bender, who showed no hesitation pulling up from three-point range in NBA Summer League despite bricking the vast majority of them. He’ll need to get stronger, but Bender is the rare breed of big man who can make plays with the ball in his hands, block shots and hopefully spread the floor to three-point range one day.

Then there’s Chriss, the stateside man of mystery who’s been gifted with breathtaking athleticism and an incredibly high ceiling. Chriss needs to improve his rebounding and his propensity for getting into foul trouble, but this 19-year-old could prove himself to be a similarly versatile stretch-4 down the road as well.

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If the Suns fully commit to their youth movement, or if the losses start piling on and the season diverts into another tank job, Bender and Chriss will enjoy heavy minutes while being mentored every step of the way by Jared Dudley.

But even if the Suns stubbornly chase after a bottom-feeder playoff spot and somehow get close, that might not be the end of the world; if anything, it means an ultra-young bench of Booker, Warren, Len, Bender and/or Chriss are getting the job done and learning how to fill their roles on a competitive team.

It’s nowhere near as fun as trial and error in a pressure-free environment where wins don’t matter, but either way, Bender, Chriss and Tyler Ulis should provide fans with more reasons to be excited for the future in whatever action they get.

Dec 1, 2015; Brooklyn, NY, USA; Phoenix Suns guard Eric Bledsoe (2) advances the ball during the first quarter against the Brooklyn Nets at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports

Best-Case Scenario

In the Suns’ case, their “best-case” scenario would probably be another season like their miserable 2015-16 campaign. Minus the rash of injuries, Phoenix would be in a better place playing the youngsters to “tank” the season, earning another top-5 selection in a LOADED draft class to add to their promising core.

By feeding their players of the future more minutes than veteran players like Knight, Dudley and Chandler, the Suns would not only actively build toward their future, but they’d ensure another tantalizing young prospect joins them on their quest in the draft.

In this best-case scenario, Watson starts Devin Booker over Brandon Knight, and though the defense predictably suffers, Booker takes the next step to becoming a go-to scorer, thriving off Bledsoe’s penetration and enjoying an even better sophomore campaign.

Len proves to be the superior starting center and replaces Chandler in the lineup, harnessing his tutelage to start resembling the defensive anchor this team needs for the future. Ulis establishes himself as a legitimate backup point guard despite his size disadvantage, while Bender and Chriss absorb everything Dudley has to offer like sponges, making smaller, but noticeable strides in their games.

The Suns either trade Knight or thrive with him embracing a sixth man role, Bledsoe stays healthy, and the team winds up with another top-5 pick in 2017.

Worst-Case Scenario

The worst-case scenario is one Suns fans have seen too many times over the last few seasons: The team is competitive enough to stay just outside the playoff picture, but never good enough to truly enter the conversation.

Bledsoe and/or Knight get hurt again, which all but kamikazes their potential trade value. Booker fails to live up to the hype coming off the bench behind Knight, who is resentful about the constant questions about coming off the bench and the bright future of Drake’s favorite Wildcat.

Len is unable to prove himself as a starting-caliber center, and the Suns begin considering long-term alternatives in the back of their minds. Ulis hardly plays, while Bender and Chriss look out of their league, showing very little signs of progress in their first seasons.

Phoenix finishes in the 35-40 win range, putting them out of the top-5 draft picks but nowhere near the playoff picture. Essentially, the Suns suffer their seventh straight year of missing the playoffs in another lost season that never featured as many developmental minutes as it should’ve.

Jan 19, 2016; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Phoenix Suns guard Brandon Knight (3) talks with teammate forward P.J. Tucker (17) on the court in the game against the Indiana Pacers at Talking Stick Resort Arena. The Pacers won 97-94. Mandatory Credit: Jennifer Stewart-USA TODAY Sports

Predictions

The Suns are an extremely hard team to predict for the 2016-17 campaign. When fully healthy, this is a borderline playoff team, especially if the young bench lives up to its end of the bargain after earning plenty of experience in hearty minutes last year.

However, there are too many things that have to go right for Phoenix to even sniff the playoffs. Injury-prone guards like Bledsoe and Knight have to stay healthy and actually show some signs of chemistry together. Booker has to avoid the dreaded sophomore slump despite a lesser role.