Philadelphia 76ers Nerlens Noel To Dallas Mavericks Could Work
Why the Dallas Mavericks could be the perfect destination for Nerlens Noel.
The Philadelphia 76ers and the Dallas Mavericks have won only four games each. That places each team in the category of ” worst teams in the NBA” so far. That designation has worn thin on Nerlens Noel as he emerges from his rookie contract. He wants to move on, but not many team are in the market for a rehabbing NBA center right now.
Last season, the Sixers won only 10 games and landed the top pick of the 2016 draft Ben Simmons. Unfortunately, Simmons is rehabbing a foot injury.
Meanwhile, last season was far more kind to the Mavericks’ as they won 42 games. They were projected to be nearly as good after signing Harrison Barnes this offseason. How are the Mavericks almost as bad as the Sixers? Could the Mavericks’ struggles could provide the Sixers with a team willing to give them a good first round pick for Nerlens Noel?
If I told people in Philadelphia in October that a local professional team would be have as many wins as a team in Dallas, Texas, in early December, people would assume I was talking football about the Eagles competing with the Cowboys for the top team in the NFC East. Unfortunately, the Cowboys are on their way to winning the NFC East and earning a first round bye. Conversely, the Eagles likely miss the playoffs by a few game.
Nov 16, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia 76ers forward Nerlens Noel (4) reacts as he is fouled by Dallas Mavericks forward Dirk Nowitzki (41) during the second half at Wells Fargo Center. The Mavericks won 92-86. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
My, How Times Change
But the Philadelphia 76ers do have a realistic chance to end the season with a better record than the Dallas Mavericks. Currently the Sixers have 4 wins and 17 losses to the Mavericks 4 wins and 15 losses. Statistically, the Sixers are the better team compared to the Mavericks in points scored per game 97.4 to 91, rebounds per game 43.4 to 40.6, and assists per game 22.7 to 18.
Entering the 2016-17 season, most people expected the Mavericks to be much better than the Sixers. Todaysfastbreak.com’s power rankings done during the 2016 offseason had the Mavericks ranked 23rd and the Sixers ranked 30th. Three different writers in different Dallas Mavericks blogs predicted the Mavericks would finish the season with a winning record and likely make the playoffs. Akshay Mirchandani’s article proposed Mavericks best and worst case scenario and concluded the team would land over .500 winning percentage. Danny Webster’s predictions in this article projecting the 2016-17 Mavericks into the playoffs. Finally, Sam Casey projected the Mavericks to make the playoffs in this article about what five things Mavericks’ fans can expect this season.
While there will always be examples of projections, forecasts, and power rankings gone awry, the consensus of the Dallas Mavericks was uniform in optimism. That view was shared by a Mavericks’ front office caught completely unaware at the teams early struggles.
Nov 16, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia 76ers forward Nerlens Noel (4) looses control of the ball in front of Dallas Mavericks forward Dirk Nowitzki (41) during the first half at Wells Fargo Center. The Mavericks won 92-86. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Baby Don’t Hurt Me
Injuries are one reason the Mavericks have been so bad this season. Among the Mavericks top five scorers, only Harrison Barnes has played in all 19 of their games. J.J. Barea played in 9 games, Wesley Matthews played in 18 games, Dirk Nowitzki played in 5 games, and Deron Williams played in 11 games.
Similarly, the Philadelphia 76ers have started the season without projected starters Ben Simmons, Jerryd Bayless, and one of the top defensive NBA centers in Nerlens Noel.
More from The Sixer Sense
With the Mavericks currently seven games out of a playoff spot in the Western Conference and four of their top five players being at least 30 years old and struggling with injuries, they are unlikely to be a good enough team to make the playoffs. This article from hoopsrumors.com shows that the Mavericks are over $16 million dollars over the salary cap. Another article on the same website suggests trading starting center Andrew Bogut would be the best way for the Mavericks to save money. Money that is needed to start rebuilding an old roster. Bogut makes $11,027,027 this season and will become an unrestricted after the 2016-17 season.
To do so, the Mavericks would need to find an NBA team willing to take on the role of salary dump.
Enter the Philadelphia 76ers.
Jun 23, 2016; New York, NY, USA; A general view of a video board displaying all thirty draft picks in the first round of the 2016 NBA Draft at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports
The Cost Of Doing (Salary Dump) Business
The Philadelphia 76ers currently have $13,710,114 in cap space, so they could trade Noel to the Mavericks for Bogut at a price of a first round pick in the upcoming draft and immediately release Bogut.
The 76ers simply do not have the interest in diluting the center space while Joel Embiid shows so much promise. As a matter of fact, it’s easy to imagine the Mavericks being interested in Noel.
Under Mark Cuban’s ownership the Mavericks have valued centers that can play great defense despite their limits on offense. The Mavericks won their only NBA championship when Tyson Chandler was defensive player of the year. On top of that, they offered DeAndre Jordan a max contract during the 2016 NBA offseason before Jordan changed his mind about joining the Mavericks and returned to the Los Angeles Clippers.
While Noel is unlikely to ever be as good as Tyson and Jordan, he can be a poor man’s version of them and the contract the Mavericks will have to give him as a restricted free agent in the upcoming offseason should cost them significantly less than Tyson or Jordan.
Nov 16, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia 76ers forward Nerlens Noel (4) reacts as he is fouled by Dallas Mavericks forward Dirk Nowitzki (41) during the second half at Wells Fargo Center. The Mavericks won 92-86. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Did Someone Say Protection?
The biggest issue with trading Noel to the Mavericks is deciding what protections should be placed on the Mavericks’ own first pick. The Mavericks would be wise to impose some level to avoid giving away too much in the deal. As one of the worst teams in the NBA, the Mavericks realize they could land the top pick in what is likely a very talented group of young prospects.
Perhaps the compromise imposes a top three protection in 2017, which if not conveyed could become an unprotected 2018 first round pick. That would protect the pick this year, and would give them time to improve significantly next season.
One model the Philadelphia 76ers would be wise to point to is the trade negotiated with the Sacramento Kings. In that deal, the 76ers sought trade swaps initially, and outright picks later.
The Mavericks might insist upon a first round pick that is a top five protected 2017 pick, that can turn into a top three protected 2018 pick, and will become an unprotected 2019 pick if it doesn’t convey in the either of the previous two seasons. The Sixers should push for an unprotected 2018 first round pick, but should be willing to accept the Mavericks’ first round pick with two seasons worth of protection.
With the Mavericks struggles, the teams could haggle over protections which could be diluted by tossing the Mavericks second round pick into the mix. As a matter of fact, the 76ers could insist upon swap rights which would lessen the blow to the Mavericks by ensuring both teams walk out of the draft with a first round pick.
Jun 24, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia 76ers president of basketball operations Bryan Colangelo during an introduction press conference at the Philadelphia College of Osteopathic Medicine. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
A Deal Worth Making
Finding a good trade for Noel has been mission impossible since Bryan Colangelo decided he was the center the Sixers need to trade. But the Mavericks might be the Sixers best and only chance to get anything resembling fair value in return for a good young player. They simply need to camouflage it as a salary dump.
The Mavericks need to emerge from salary cap purgatory quickly if the team intends to turn things around quickly. Right now the team is lashed to players making far too much for producing far too little. Without a change to that, the team cannot change the outcome.
The Philadelphia 76ers need to find a new address for Nerlens Noel, but cannot show weakness to the roster nor to other NBA teams in the process. Letting Noel walk away for anything less than a solid starter or lottery first round pick must be viewed as forbidden.
This deal passes the sniff test for both teams. The Mavericks land a young player who fits their style, has a proven track record in the NBA, and becomes an anchor to a team rebuild which would allow the Mavericks to turn to youth or veterans in the process.
The 76ers remove a disgruntled player form the mix, add valuable draft pick(s) in the process, and emerge from a bad situation with the best outcome hoped-for. The Mavericks and the 76ers would be wise to test the waters on this trade, before Noel is shipped off elsewhere.