New York Knicks need to shore up 3-point defense and get more from starting five

By Yaron Weitzman
FOX Sports NBA Writer

NEW YORK — It’s hard to know what to make of the Knicks’ start this season. You could call it a roller coaster. Or a seesaw. Maybe you have a different ride you prefer.

Let’s just go with up and down.

The Knicks won five of their first six games, which is good. But they’ve also dropped five of their past seven, including a 112-100 loss Wednesday to the Milwaukee Bucks, which is not good.

They boast a bench unit that outscores opponents by more than 20 points per 100 possessions, which is very good. But they also have a starting lineup that routinely needs to be rescued, which is very bad. They own the league’s fifth-best offense, which is very, very good. And its fifth-worst defense, which is very, very bad. They’ve won five of the six games they’ve played on the road, which is very, very, very good. But they've dropped four of the six they’ve played at home, which (you guessed it) is very, very, very bad.

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All of which has them standing at 7-5, the seventh-best record in the Eastern Conference, which is pretty much where most of us thought they’d spend the season. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t causes for concern.

Here are three that, if not addressed, could subvert the season.

It’s raining 3s

Let’s start with New York's insistence on allowing every opposing shooter to shoot like Klay Thompson.

Here are the numbers: Entering the game against the Bucks, opponents had drilled 37.6% of their triples against the Knicks, the league’s fifth-worst mark, and that was before Milwaukee's scorching 26-for-50 performance.

And before you go writing this all off as small-sample theater, you should know that the Knicks are surrendering both more wide-open 3s (categorized by NBA Advanced Stats as shots with no defender within six feet) and more catch-and-shoot 3s (which are more efficient than off-the-dribble shots and usually the result of a punctured defense) than any other team in the league. All of which would suggest the existence of a structural problem.

It’s not like this is a new trend. The Knicks allowed a ton of 3s last season; they just happened to be the recipients of some good shooting luck. Case in point: Opponents drained just 34.7% of their "wide-open" looks against the Knicks last season. This year it's 41.7%.

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What’s going on? How is a Tom Thibodeau-led team leaking 3s? I asked him after Wednesday's game if the defense is surrendering the type of shots he wanted. "We don’t want to give up any shots," he replied. So, no help there.

Derrick Rose, however, was willing to offer his thoughts.

"The attempts is cool, but as long as you’re contesting them," he said. "You’re not going to shut or limit guys to under 30 or 20 3s. People force 3s up sometimes, especially when you’re dealing with great shooting teams. But it’s all about contesting the shots."

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If you’re a Knicks fan, you hope Rose is right, and that the root of the problem is effort. That’d be an easier fix. But there’s also a chance that Thibodeau’s scheme, which calls for aggressive off-ball help, could be pushing defenders out of position.

Either way, the Knicks aren’t going anywhere this season if they don’t figure out a way to either force more misses or chase shooters off the line.

An underwhelming homecoming

Look, we all love Kemba Walker, and we all wanted the dazzling New York City return. Unfortunately, Walker — who finished Wednesday with two points on 1-for-7 shooting to go with just two assists — appears cooked.

He’s strictly a jump-shooter now, with more than half his shots coming from behind the arc. He can no longer turn the corner. He’s not initiating contact in the paint, either — the 2.2 free throws per 100 possessions that he’s averaging are three fewer than he averaged last season, which was already a career low, as is the 12.2 points per game he’s producing — and can’t finish in the paint.

On the other end of the floor, Walker’s small stature and lack of quickness put the Knicks at a disadvantage. Effort is not the problem for Walker. He just doesn’t have the physical tools to hold his own. According to Cleaning the Glass, the Knicks have allowed 17.1 more points per 100 possessions with Walker on the floor.

And speaking of being outscored …

Poor starts

I mentioned it above, but the Knicks’ starting lineup has been bad. Like, really bad. Like, worst-five-man-lineup-in-the-league bad. Here are the numbers:

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To be fair, lineup data early in the season can be misleading. But at some point, you can’t ignore what your eyes are seeing.

To put it another way, here’s what Thibodeau had to say Wednesday when asked about the notion of sample size:

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What’s the reason for these struggles?

"We try to ease into games," Rose said. "We try to get a feel instead of being the aggressor. And a lot of times, you have to be the aggressor, you know? Let people know that you’re there."

That Walker has struggled hasn’t helped. Also, Julius Randle no longer drilling jumpers at a Kevin Durant-like rate (last season he shot 44% on long 2s and 41% on 3s, according to Cleaning the Glass; this year those numbers have fallen to 23% and 35%) has taken some punch out of the Knicks’ attack.

Then again, scoring hasn’t been the problem for the Knicks. Their issues have come at the other end of the court. And if they don’t find some answers there, they could soon find the season slipping away.

Yaron Weitzman is an NBA writer for FOX Sports and the author of Tanking to the Top: The Philadelphia 76ers and the Most Audacious Process in the History of Professional Sports. Follow him on Twitter @YaronWeitzman.