New Orleans Pelicans Player of the Week: Buddy Hield is playing his game at an elite level

Each week, Pelican Debrief veteran Charles LaRocca (@CLaRoccaJr) will choose one player to highlight as New Orleans Pelicans Player of the Week. We’d love to hear your feedback, in the comments or on his Twitter timeline.

This week, we celebrate the drastic improvements of rookie Buddy Hield, whose ability to maximize the skills he’s always had surrounded by better talent unleashed him in December.

The New Orleans Pelicans vision finally seems to be coming to fruition. A switch in scheme towards small ball has brought the Pelicans new life as we begin the new year.

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The overall team improvement has been paralleled by the improvement of Buddy Hield. His early season struggles were well documented. But a shift into the starting lineup has helped him to look like the player we got used to seeing in during his time at Oklahoma (at least in a shooting sense).

Hield’s play last month garnered him national acclaim, as he won the Western Conference Rookie of the Month award. In this edition of Player of the Week, I’ll look back at the past month for Hield and what may have helped him turn his rookie campaign around.

Star Power

An obvious difference is the level of talent he is sharing the court with. Playing alongside Anthony Davis and Jrue Holiday has allowed the Pelicans to mask Hield’s deficiencies. As a starter, Hield has played nearly all of his minutes with Holiday and Davis on the court. That has helped alleviate the amount of defensive pressure being focused on him.

Here is a play the Pelicans run quite frequently. A simple double screen between Buddy Hield, Jrue Holiday and Anthony Davis. However this play only works because the defense respects the threat of a Davis/Holdiay pick and roll. They blitz Holiday to force the ball out of his hands, giving Buddy just enough space to knock down an open 3-pointer– it is just one example how the threat of Holiday and Davis has directly led to better shots for Buddy.

Because there’s been less of a need for Buddy to create, he has been able to focus on catching and shooting. For the month of December, 70 percent of Hield’s baskets were preceded by an assist. As he continues to adjust to the NBA level, he has been able to carve out a role for himself by playing this way. Starting next to Davis and Holiday has allowed Hield to find a way to produce for the team as he rounds out the rest of his game.

So is it really all Jrue and AD? Not quite.

Shot Selection

When you compare Buddy Hield’s November numbers to those from December, it’s clear what the difference is: In November, Buddy Hield was taking a lot more pull-up jumpers, and he was missing open shots. Those combinations usually equate to bad offense.

First, let’s focus on the pull-up jumpers. In November, Hield most-frequently-attempted shot was a pull-up jumper. He shot them 39.8 percent of the time (per NBA.com). Despite that being his most attempted shot, he only was able to make them at a brutal 28 percent clip.

A month later, Hield’s most frequently attempted shot has become a catch-and-shoot 3-pointer. That is partly what led to his major spike in efficiency. As his rookie year has progressed, Hield has taken better shots, and it’s starting to show in his percentages.

Above are two very similar plays. In the first clip Buddy pulls up from mid-range despite having the space to attempt a much more efficient three. Against the Knicks, he does just that. Buddy shoots with no hesitation off the screen; as soon as he gets the space, he lets it fly. Both attempts are early in the shot clock, but that attempt against the Kings will likely always be obtainable.

Things like this are very little, but highlight the progress Buddy has made in shot selection. His regression to the mean was always likely to take place; the good shoot selection is what has allowed his shooting numbers to remain constant and sustainable. So is that it? Shot selection and starting next to Davis and Jrue– that’s all it took?

Sometimes, the biggest changes occur right before our eyes.

Open Shots

The biggest reason for Buddy Hield’s turnaround has been his ability to hit open shots. In December, Hield generated more open shots and knocked them down at a much better rate. That’s an understatement, actually: he knocked them down at an elite rate. In December, 23.8 percent of Hield’s threes were considered “open” by NBA.com’s Synergy data. He knocked them down at a 45 percent rate.

Compare that to November (where he actually generated more open looks from three): That month, 27.6 percent of Hield’s threes were “open”, and he made them at a pitiful 26.5 percent. Hield increased his field goal percentage on open threes by nearly 20 percent during December. With a spike in efficiency that drastic, it’s no wonder that he looks better; he’s actually making shots.

An even more shocking stat is that Hield shot only 28.6 percent on “wide-open” threes during November, despite generating them 22 percent of the time.

Contrast that with his December numbers, in which Hield made defenses pay for leaving him open by shooting 55 percent on “wide-open” threes. That is nearly a 30 percent turnaround. If Hield was hitting his open shots at even an average rate to start the year, his season would look mighty different overall.

So basically, Hield was able to win the Western Conference Rookie of the Month by:

I’d be remiss if I did not elaborate on that last part: I am no body language expert, but it was clear that Buddy Hield was pressing to begin the season. I am not sure if it was him trying to do to much as a response to the pressures of being a lottery pick, or if he was just simply struggling to adjust to the NBA game. It just never clicked earlier in the year.

Watching him, it felt as if he was trying to force things. Hield would miss a shot, then become hesitant to shoot the next time the ball came his way. Or, he would make a three and then immediately hoist up another as if he was trying to create a made shot out of thin air. Instead of letting his moment occur organically, he continually would force the issue. Those days are gone.

Here are some Buddy Hield clips from December, highlighting his breakout month:

Above, you see Buddy exhibit the trademark confidence he was known for in college. This was definitely missing in October and November.

A great all-around sequence from Buddy Hield: Harasses Chris Paul off-ball, helps on Raymond Felton drive, recovers to run Chris Paul off the 3-point line, then contests the jumper.

Buddy Hield’s numbers as a starter speak for themselves. I have highlighted a number of statistical reasons on what may have helped jump-start his shooting. My final is a theory based not on fact, but on philosophy. The old “mind over matter” theory.

Mind over Matter

Being a starter in the NBA can be a big ego boost to players. For better or worse, some players just like having the label “starter”. In Buddy Hield’s case, he is a starter only by name. Despite his improvements, he only averaged 24.3 minutes in December and often does not even play in the 4th quarter of games. That’s uncommon for a “true starter”.

I am not suggesting that Hield had a problem coming off the bench, but being labeled a starter may have helped clear a mental block. Playing alongside other stars eases the burden of trying to carry the scoring load. Coming off the bench you want to be a spark-plug; an igniter. For Buddy, it didn’t happen, and being inserted into the starting lineup has essentially given him a fresh start.

Moving Forward

With the Western Conference Rookie of the Month for December now in Hield’s trophy closet, what can we realistically expect next? His shooting numbers will likely decrease a bit; he’s shooting at a ridiculously high percentage right now, so that’s natural.

Buddy Hield remains the most consistent 3-point threat the Pelicans possess. His shooting will always be a weapon, its everything else that will set him apart. His defense has been better, but he remains a net negative, and that isn’t changing soon.

The most realistic scenario for further improvement involves Buddy sliding into some crunch time minutes and getting more late-game experience. His development as of now is fine though– no need to rush. December showed that the Pelicans in fact did get the shooter they envisioned, it just took some patience, something everyone could use a bit more of when dealing with rookies.