NBA Western Conference guide: Warriors have tough road to repeat
By Melissa Rohlin
FOX Sports NBA Writer
The Western Conference should be very interesting this year. There were so many injuries last season to some of the conference's top stars, including Kawhi Leonard, Zion Williamson, Jamal Murray, Anthony Davis and Damian Lillard. With them back in the mix, things could shake out differently this time around.
The big question is: Will the Warriors repeat, winning their fifth title in nine years? Or will a new West team represent the conference in the Finals?
After looking at the East yesterday, we've broken down all the West teams, from those playing for a championship to those just playing out the string for a chance to pick mega-prospect Victor Wembanyama in June's NBA Draft. We'll start at the top.
CHAMPIONSHIP CONTENDERS
Coach: Steve Kerr
2021-22 record: 53-29, won the championship
FOX Bet 2022-23 win total: 51.5
Key additions: Donte DiVincenzo, JaMychal Green
Notable losses: Gary Payton II, Otto Porter Jr., Juan Toscano-Anderson, Nemanja Bjelica, Damion Lee
Most important player: Steph Curry
X-Factor: James Wiseman
Why to bet the over: Curry seems to only get better with age. Draymond Green is up for a contract extension. And Klay Thompson wants to prove himself again after ACL and Achilles' injuries sidelined him for 941 days, including 2 1/2 months last season. The Big Three should be ready to go, which always spells trouble for the rest of the league. Not to mention, Andrew Wiggins, Jordan Poole and Kevon Looney proved themselves as indispensable during last year's title run. Then there's Wiseman, who is a bit of a mystery after missing all of last season because of a knee injury. The 21-year-old center, the No. 2 overall pick in 2020, has the potential to turn into an important piece for the Warriors. This team is deep, talented, motivated and knows what it takes to go all the way after reaching the Finals six of the last eight years.
Why to take the under: Before the season even began, there was drama. Green punched Poole during a training camp practice, and now a lot is up in the air. Will the team truly forgive Green? Will Green and Poole be able to coexist? Green claimed their spat had nothing to do with them both being up for contract extensions. But it's hard not to wonder what will happen now that the 23-year-old Poole got the bag before 32-year-old Green, who helped lead the team to four titles and become a dynasty. Could things become even more contentious?
This browser does not support the Video element.
LeSean McCoy believes that Golden State Warriors head coach Steve Kerr handled the Draymond Green, Jordan Poole physical altercation well.
Coach: Tyronn Lue
2021-22 record: 42-40, didn't make the play-in tournament
FOX Bet 2022-23 win total: 52.5
Key addition: John Wall
Notable loss: Isaiah Hartenstein
Most important player: Kawhi Leonard
X-Factor: Paul George
Why to bet the over: Even though Leonard missed all of last season and George only played in 31 games, the Clippers nearly made the play-in tournament. Guys like Reggie Jackson and Marcus Morris Sr. stepped up in their absence and the team became stronger, from the bottom up. Now, with the superstars back and apparently healthy, the Clippers could really go far.
Why to take the under: The Clippers have never advanced past the Western Conference Finals. Throughout their history, they always seem to be plagued by injuries or bad luck when they're expected to compete for a title. But if this team can figure out a way to stay healthy, watch out.
Coach: Taylor Jenkins
2021-22 record: 56-26, lost in second round to Golden State Warriors
FOX Bet 2022-23 win total: 49.5
Key additions: Danny Green, Jake LaRavia, David Roddy
Notable losses: Kyle Anderson, De'Anthony Melton
Most important player: Ja Morant
X-Factor: Desmond Bane
Why to bet the over: They're young, fun and they've got next in this league, so to say. It's still shocking that they went 20-5 without superstar Ja Morant last season. This team has a lot of grit, a lot of talent and a lot of bravado. With those things combined, it wouldn't be surprising if they go deep. Morant has established himself as a full-blown superstar and Bane is an emerging elite talent. Acquiring someone like Danny Green, a savvy veteran who has won three titles, should only help give this team the institutional knowledge it needs to handle the ups and downs of the playoffs.
Why to take the under: Jaren Jackson Jr.'s injury (stress fracture in his foot) could affect the team early, but the Grizzlies will likely be able to rebound from that setback. Their real question mark is their youth. It's their greatest asset, but it could also be their greatest liability during the postseason.
Coach: Monty Williams
2021-22 record: 64-18, lost in second round to Dallas Mavericks
FOX Bet 2022-23 win total: 52.5
Key additions: Josh Okogie, Damion Lee, Jock Landale
Notable losses: JaVale McGee, Aaron Holiday, Elfrid Payton
Most important player: Chris Paul
X-Factor: Deandre Ayton
Why to bet the over: The Suns are still recovering from the shock and embarrassment of last season's epic combustion, when they lost Game 7 of their second-round playoff series against the Dallas Mavericks by 33 points. You can bet Paul isn't going to let something like that happen again. After reaching the NBA Finals in 2021 and then flaming out last season despite having the best record in the league, this talented team with Paul, Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton is going to be hungry.
Why to take the under: The Suns are already facing obstacles. There are concerns about Ayton's contentment with the team, Jae Crowder remains away while they look to trade him and the Robert Sarver saga has cast a cloud over the franchise. Can they rebound from all of that?
This browser does not support the Video element.
Skip Bayless shares what this shows about both parties.
PLAYOFF CONTENDERS
Coach: Michael Malone
2021-22 record: 48-34, lost in first round to Golden State Warriors
FOX Bet 2022-23 win total: 50.5
Key additions: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Bruce Brown, Christian Braun, DeAndre Jordan
Notable losses: Monte Morris, Will Barton
Most important player: Nikola Jokic
X-Factor: Jamal Murray
Why to bet the over: Nikola Jokic was named MVP two seasons in a row, most recently leading the Nuggets to the playoffs without Jamal Murray or Michael Porter Jr. With those guys back and apparently healthy, defenses will have to spread the court, which will allow Jokic to wreak even more havoc.
Why to take the under: The Nuggets struggled on the defensive end last season, finishing 19th in the league. Acquiring Kentavious Caldwell-Pope will help, but it remains to be seen whether the team has done enough to improve on that end of the floor.
Coach: Willie Green
2021-22 record: 36-46, eliminated in first round by Phoenix Suns
FOX Bet 2022-23 win total: 44.5
Key addition: Dyson Daniels
Notable loss: Tony Snell
Most important player: Zion Williamson
X-Factor: Jose Alvarado
Why to bet the over: Four words: Zion Williamson is back. Finally, we'll be able to see what the Pelicans are capable of accomplishing. This is an exciting time for this up-and-coming squad which turned a 3-16 start last season into a playoff berth behind the tenacity of first-year coach Willie Green, a smart trade for CJ McCollum and the grit of guys such as Brandon Ingram and Jose Alvarado. Add Williamson into that mix and this team could be special.
Why to take the under: Will Williamson fit alongside the pieces the Pelicans put around him? Will Williamson turn into the MVP contender he's been projected to become? Right now, we have more questions than answers.
Coach: Jason Kidd
2021-22 record: 52-30, lost Western Conference Finals to Golden State Warriors
FOX Bet 2022-23 win total: 48.5
Key additions: Christian Wood, JaVale McGee
Notable loss: Jalen Brunson
Most important player: Luka Doncic
X-Factor: Spencer Dinwiddie
Why to bet the over: Luka Doncic took this team farther than anyone expected last season, eliminating the Suns in the second round of the playoffs and then competing against the Warriors in the Western Conference Finals. With him, anything is possible.
Why to take the under: The Mavericks need to get Doncic some help in the form of another superstar. They have some solid role players on the roster, but unless someone such as Spencer Dinwiddie or Dorian Finney-Smith has a breakout season, it's hard to imagine this team taking the next step. The loss of Brunson will be felt.
Coach: Darvin Ham
2021-22 record: 33-49, didn't make the play-in tournament
FOX Bet 2022-23 win total: 44.5
Key additions: Dennis Schroder, Patrick Beverley, Juan Toscano-Anderson, Lonnie Walker IV
Notable losses: Talen Horton-Tucker, Carmelo Anthony, Dwight Howard, Malik Monk
Most important player: LeBron James
X-Factor: Anthony Davis
Why to bet the over: Even though this team fell far below expectations last season, the Lakers still have one of the most talented rosters in the league. If Anthony Davis can stay healthy and Russell Westbrook can figure out how to be more consistent, this team could be great. James is one of the best in the world even though he's 37 and in his 20th season in the league, and if he can get some help, this team could be contenders once again.
Why to take the under: Davis played only 76 games the last two seasons combined because of a variety of injuries. First-year coach Darvin Ham made it clear that Davis is the key to this team's success, but the question is: Can he stay healthy enough to remain on the court? Of course, there are also many questions around Westbrook as well, namely, will he put in the effort defensively? And can he figure out a way to be effective alongside the team's other two stars?
This browser does not support the Video element.
Nick explains what LeBron James and the Lakers needs are to make a postseason push.
PLAY-IN CONTENDERS
Coach: Chris Finch
2021-22 record: 46-36, lost in first round to Memphis Grizzlies
FOX Bet 2022-23 win total: 48.5
Key additions: Rudy Gobert, Kyle Anderson
Notable losses: Walker Kessler, Malik Beasley, Patrick Beverley
Most important player: Karl-Anthony Towns
X-Factor: Anthony Edwards
Why to bet the over: It'll be intriguing to see how big men Towns and Gobert play alongside one another. It's a definite throwback decision by the Timberwolves to have Twin Towers. But it worked for many teams back in the day, and perhaps it will work again for the Timberwolves now.
Why to take the under: Edwards is projected to have a breakout season, which could elevate this team to the next level. But he has struggled with character issues, and needs to stay out of his own way for this team to be successful.
Coach: Chauncey Billups
2021-22 record: 25-55, missed the play-in tournament
FOX Bet 2022-23 win total: 38.5
Key additions: Jerami Grant, Gary Payton II, Shaedon Sharpe
Notable losses: Didi Louzada, Ben McLemore, CJ Elleby
Most important player: Damian Lillard
X Factor: Shaedon Sharpe
Why to bet the over: After only playing 29 games last season, Lillard says he has 100 percent recuperated from an abdominal injury. He'll be playing alongside a completely retooled roster. With Jusuf Nurkic apparently healthy and the team acquiring forward Grant, it'll be interesting to see how this team comes together. Watch out for Lillard, who is going to want to show the world once again what he can do after dealing with an injury-plagued season that was also wrought with rumblings that he wanted to leave the team.
Why to take the under: Since Lillard joined the team in 2012, the Trail Blazers haven't made it past the conference Finals. It's fair to wonder if the roster has been improved enough to finally take the team over the hump.
Coach: Mike Brown
2021-22 record: 30-52, missed the play-in tournament
FOX Bet 2022-23 win total: 32.5
Key additions: Keegan Murray, Kevin Huerter, Malik Monk
Notable losses: Donte DiVincenzo, Damian Jones
Most important player: De'Aaron Fox
X-Factor: Keegan Murray
Why to bet the over: With Fox, Domantas Sabonis and Murray, this team has the potential to make the play-in tournament. Mike Brown, who was hired to take over the helm in July, is imbuing the team with a new culture. Perhaps the Kings could turn around their 16-year playoff drought.
Why to take the under: The Kings have been so bad for so long. With so many new pieces and new leadership, there will definitely be a learning curve for this team, and it's questionable whether they'll make a leap this season.
WEMBANYAMA CONTENDERS
Coach: Will Hardy
2021-22 record: 49-33, lost in first round to Dallas Mavericks
FOX Bet 2022-23 win total: 26.5
Key additions: Lauri Markkanen, Collin Sexton, Malik Beasley, Talen Horton-Tucker
Notable losses: Rudy Gobert, Donovan Mitchell, Bojan Bogdanovic
Most important player: Collin Sexton
X-Factor: Lauri Markkanen
Why to bet the over: The Jazz have some intriguing young talent, including the 23-year-old Sexton and 25-year-old 7-footer Markkanen. Even though the Jazz blew up their team, getting rid of their stars to load up on draft picks, they acquired some guys who have a lot of potential.
Why to take the under: The Jazz are playing the long-game, overhauling their roster in the hopes of preparing themselves for an extremely strong draft class in 2023.
Coach: Gregg Popovich
2021-22 record: 34-48, missed the play-in tournament
FOX Bet 2022-23 win total: 23.5
Key additions: Jeremy Sochan, Blake Wesley, Malaki Branham
Notable losses: Dejounte Murray, Lonnie Walker
Most important player: Devin Vassell
X-Factor: Keldon Johnson
Why to bet the over: The Spurs are in full rebuild mode after trading their lone All-Star in Dejounte Murray to Atlanta. They will likely miss the playoffs for their fourth season in a row, quite a change for a franchise that reached the postseason 22-straight seasons while led by players such as Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard. But with Popovich on the sideline, it is always possible that this team can do better than projected. The 73-year-old coach, who has captained the Spurs to five championships, recently joked that he returned to the helm for another season because of his paycheck. But we all know that's the furthest thing from the truth. With him steering the ship, anything is possible.
Why to take the under: Look at the roster.
Coach: Mark Daigneault
2021-22 record: 24-58, missed the play-in tournament
FOX Bet 2022-23 win total: 25.5
Key additions: Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams
Notable loss: JaMychal Green
Most important player: Chet Holmgren
X-Factor: Josh Giddey
Why to bet the over: The Thunder suffered a huge blow when Holmgren, the No. 2 overall pick, sustained a foot injury that will sideline him for next season. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will likely have to endure yet another lost season. At least Giddey should provide some entertainment.
Why to take the under: Three words: No Chet Holmgren.
Coach: Stephen Silas
2021-22 record: 20-62, missed the play-in tournament
FOX Bet 2022-23 win total: 23.5
Key additions: Jabari Smith Jr., Tari Eason, TyTy Washington, Boban Marjanović
Notable losses: Christian Wood, John Wall, Dennis Schroder, David Nwaba
Most important player: Jalen Green
X-Factor: Jabari Smith Jr.
Why to bet the over: Green is still a work in progress but he has a huge upside, including a lighting first-step. He has a lot of areas to improve upon, especially on the defensive end. But if he made some big steps in the offseason, it's not unreasonable to think that this team could do slightly better than projected, especially with the defensive skills of Smith.
Why to take the under: Time is running out on this team making the necessary jumps following the post-James Harden era. They're going to have to sort through which of their young players can actually make an impact, but that process could be a bumpy one.
Read more NBA preview stories:
- NBA Eastern Conference team-by-team guide
- NBA staff debate: Warriors' repeat chances, Lakers and Nets drama, MVP picks
- NBA preseason survey: League insiders on sleepers, boom-or-bust teams and more
- Lakers still talk of the NBA, no matter what happens elsewhere
- Warriors once again grappling with the duality of Draymond
- Russell Westbrook and the storm brewing within the Lakers
- Why NBA execs believe a Kevin Durant trade is still likely
- Victor Wembanyama is the NBA's future, and resistance is futile
Melissa Rohlin is an NBA writer for FOX Sports. She previously covered the league for Sports Illustrated, the Los Angeles Times, the Bay Area News Group and the San Antonio Express-News. Follow her on Twitter @melissarohlin.