NBA odds: Kings were historic long shots, now favored to beat Warriors

Updated Apr 19, 2023 5:08 pm ET

Entering the season, if someone told you the Sacramento Kings would be up 2-0 on the defending champion Golden State Warriors in a playoff series, you probably would have laughed.

Fast-forward to the first round of the 2023 NBA playoffs, and that is exactly where we sit. Not only did the Kings lock up the 3-seed in the West and make the playoffs, but they pulled out clutch wins against Stephen Curry & Co. in games 1 and 2.

How did a team that finished 30-52 a year ago become a title contender so quickly? 

Let's dive into their betting odds and how they got here.

Trading for Domantas Sabonis definitely contributed to this run, as the Lithuanian big man posted 19.1 points per game, 12.3 rebounds per game and 7.1 assists per game in the regular season.

His 14 triple-doubles this season were the second-most in the NBA, trailing only Nikola Jokic.

De'Aaron Fox is also having a career year, averaging 25.0 PPG en route to his first All-Star appearance. Fox and Sabonis led the Kings to their first Pacific Division title since the 2002-03 season, despite being 250-1 underdogs to win it in the preseason. Those are the longest preseason odds of any Pacific Division champion since at least the 2008-09 season (as far back as our division odds data goes). 

Now the question on everyone's minds is, can the Kings win it all?

They actually have the longest title drought of any NBA franchise, with their only championship coming 71 years ago in 1951, when they were the Rochester Royals.

From a gambling perspective, Sacramento was +240 at FOX Bet to win the series before it started but now sit at -210 to defeat Golden State. The team's title odds have shrunk drastically as well. In the preseason, they were 500-1 to win it all and now sit at just 20-1 after taking a 2-0 lead on the Warriors.

Here is a look at how the team's title odds have moved throughout the season:

June: 750-1

July to November: 500-1

December to January: 150-1

February: 80-1

March: 100-1

April: 50-1

Entering first round: 50-1

Current (April 19): 20-1

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Mike Bibby joins Colin Cowherd on The Herd to discuss the Kings.

Since 1985, the team with the longest preseason title odds to win a championship is — coincidentally — the Warriors, who were 28-1 in the preseason prior to winning it all in 2014-15. Should the Kings win the Larry O'Brien trophy, they would shatter this record as 500-1 preseason underdogs. In fact, only eight NBA champions since 1985 have had preseason title odds of 10-1 or greater, let alone 100-1 or more.

To put their 500-1 preseason odds in perspective, those were the same preseason odds given to the Utah Jazz, Indiana Pacers, San Antonio Spurs, Detroit Pistons, Houston Rockets and Orlando Magic. Three of those teams won less than 30% of their games this season, and none made the postseason. 

The Kings were actually heavy favorites to miss the playoffs entering the season, given -650 odds to miss and +450 to make entering the year. The team also won a whopping 48 games despite their Over/Under win total being set at 34.5. Sacramento reached 35 wins in just 60 games played.

It’s also worth reviewing how shocking the Warriors' struggles have been. Below is a list of nuggets that provide some context on Golden State’s performance thus far:

  • The Warriors are down 0-2 in a playoff series for the first time since 2007 when they trailed the Jazz 0-2 in the second round.
  • This is the first time the Warriors have gone down 0-2 in a playoff series in the Steph Curry era.
  • The Warriors are the fifth defending champion to go down 0-2 in the first round of the playoffs, with each of the previous four losing the series (three were swept).
  • The Warriors had gone 27 straight playoff series without trailing 0-2, the longest such streak in NBA history.

So what are you waiting for? Head on over to FOX Bet and place some wagers on the NBA playoffs!

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