NBA Starting Five: Key factors that will determine who emerges from loaded West field

By Yaron Weitzman
FOX Sports NBA Writer

We’re debuting a new weekly NBA feature here at FOX Sports called The Starting Five. 

Every week, we'll dive into a topic and break it down via a list of — you guessed it — five.

This week, we're looking at the Western Conference. It’s wide open! Up for grabs! There for the taking! The way I see it, seven squads from the conference — the Warriors, Suns, Jazz, Clippers, Mavericks, Nuggets and Lakers — have a chance to reach the NBA Finals. 

Here are five questions that I believe will determine which team wins the West.

1. Has LeBron lost his legs?

We’re not going down any #WashedKing paths here; I also think it’s important to remind everyone that no one ever said LeBron James was washed. Given how he has played this season, however, it’s fair to wonder whether he has indeed lost a step.

It’s not just that LeBron missed eight games due to an abdominal strain — though the injuries are starting to pile up, and that is certainly noteworthy. No, the real red flag is what LeBron looks like when he is on the floor. You know how he has always been bigger and faster and stronger than everyone else? That no longer appears to be the case. For example:

— LeBron is averaging just 4.3 free throws per 100 possessions. His previous career low was 7.8.

— He's shooting more from deep, with 38% of his shot attempts coming from behind the 3-point line, according to Cleaning the Glass. That’s 7% more than last season, which already represented a career high.

— LeBron has finished just 66% of his shots at the rim, according to Cleaning the Glass. That’s still an above-average rate, but it's the lowest mark he has posted since his rookie year.

Put it all together, and you have the picture of a player who’s struggling to physically dominate the way he once did and — given the way he's drifting away from the rim and avoiding contact — appears to know that his burst and explosion are no longer what they once were.

None of this to say that LeBron is the reason the Lakers find themselves 9-10. 

The Russell Westbrook trade has thus far proven to be a disaster. He can’t play alongside LeBron (lineups featuring the two of them and Anthony Davis have been outscored by an ugly 11.3 points per 100 possessions, according to Cleaning the Glass). Westbrook also has failed to lift the Lakers when LeBron sits.

If you’re looking for a place to direct blame for the Lakers’ ugly start to the season, begin with team president Rob Pelinka and the team’s ownership. They let Alex Caruso walk over luxury tax concerns. They turned down a Buddy Hield deal so they could acquire Westbrook instead.

Do you think the Lakers — who rank 20th in defensive rating — could use an athletic, defensive-minded wing such as Caruso? Or a shooter such as Hield (who has drilled 39.6% of his 10.7 long-range attempts per game) to loosen up the floor?

Of course, we’ve seen LeBron carry all sorts of flawed teams to the Finals before. That has been one of the most amazing things about him: his ability to overcome even the most inferior of supporting casts. 

He also has defied all forms of science for so long that I’m wary of even thinking about questioning him. LeBron is in that Tom Brady category, where you’re afraid of counting them out until they’re lying on a beach in retirement. And there’s always the possibility that LeBron is pacing himself and will kick things into gear in the season’s second half.

But he is 36, and he has more than 60,000 NBA minutes on his odometer, meaning it is possible that we’ve reached the point where he’s no longer able to singlehandedly help a team overcome a clunky and aging roster.

2. Which injured stars will return?

Let’s start with the Warriors, who have managed to not only survive but also thrive without Klay Thompson.

Stephen Curry is lighting up the league and might be the MVP favorite right now. The Draymond Green-led defense is as locked in and synched up as ever. The Warriors boast the league’s best record (15-2), point differential (+12.9) and defensive rating and the second-best offensive rating.

Meanwhile, Shams Charania and Anthony Slater of The Athletic recently reported that Thompson has been cleared for five-on-five action and could return to the court as soon as Christmas. If he does, and if he looks anything like the Thompson of old, the Warriors will immediately become the team to beat in the West.

Of course, Golden State isn’t the only contender awaiting the return of an A-lister. 

The Clippers, at 10-8, are treading water without Kawhi Leonard, thanks to an MVP-level campaign from Paul George (26.4 points per game, 7.8 rebound, 5.3 assists) and the league’s No. 2-ranked defense, the result of head coach Ty Lue's deploying small-ball lineups to smother opposing offenses. But this team has a ceiling.

A healthy Leonard lifts the ceiling, but after he underwent surgery in July to repair a torn ACL, he’s not expected back until at least the spring. And if there’s anything we’ve learned about Leonard over the years, it’s that when it comes to his body, he’s going to err on the side of caution.

Then there’s the situation in Denver. No team has had worse injury luck this season than the Nuggets. 

Jamal Murray, still recovering from his April ACL tear, has yet to play a game. Michael Porter Jr., fresh off a mega-contract extension, is dealing with a back problem that has sidelined him since Nov. 6 and that, according to the Denver Post’s Mike Singer, is a nerve issue that "could jeopardize his season." And then there’s reigning MVP Nikola Jokic, who has missed three games due to a wrist injury. Take all that into account, and it’s incredible that the Nuggets have managed to begin the season 9-9.

When all healthy, the Nuggets might be the best team in the NBA. They pummeled teams last season after acquiring Aaron Gordon at the trade deadline; lineups with Jokic, Gordon, Murray and Porter Jr. outscored opponents by 17.1 points per 100 possessions, according to Cleaning the Glass, a ridiculous mark. But we also saw them for only five games. 

Come the postseason, Denver needs at least one of Murray or Porter Jr. on the court to have a chance.

3. Can KP and Luka coexist?

This one is simple. The Mavericks have one superstar (Luka Doncic), one player with All-Star potential (Kristaps Porzingis) and a bunch of solid role players (Tim Hardaway Jr. and Jalen Brunson chief among them).

They have enough to emerge from the West, but only if their two best players can figure out how to thrive while playing together. They’ve played only eight games alongside each other, but as you can see below, with numbers courtesy of Cleaning the Glass, thus far this season, they’ve failed to do so.

— Mavericks' net rating with Doncic and Porzingis on the court: -7.6

— Mavericks' net rating with Doncic on the court and Porzingis off: -5.1

— Mavericks' net rating with Porzingis on the court and Doncic off: +0.2

Granted, the Mavericks are 10-7, but they’ve struggled more than their record indicates; they’ve been outscored on the season by 1.2 points per 100 possessions. If not for some late-game brilliance from Doncic, who has carried the Mavs to a 6-2 record in games in which the score was within five points in the final five minutes, they’d be below .500.

That Doncic has that ability is exactly why no one will want to face Dallas in the playoffs. But we’re also on Year 3 of the KP-Luka partnership. The pairing has shown flashes of jelling, especially of late. Now it’s time for the two of them — and the Mavericks — to figure out how to do so long-term.

4. Can the Jazz follow the Bucks’ path?

Utah is in a similar position to where Milwaukee was last season. Multiple early playoff flameouts have rendered any pre-playoff success meaningless. Which is why the Jazz appear to be approaching this regular season the same way the Bucks did last year. 

Sure, they want to rack up wins — and at 11-6 and with the league’s second-best net rating, they are doing just that — but they also want to experiment a bit so that come playoff time, they’re better prepared.

One example: The Jazz, like the Bucks last season, are switching on defense a bit more this year, which could certainly benefit Utah come playoff time, when opponents drag Rudy Gobert into pick-and-rolls, pulling him out onto the perimeter and triggering all sorts of rotations.

On the other end of the floor, the Jazz are allowing Donovan Mitchell to run more pick-and-rolls than ever before.

Mitchell also is launching a career-high 6.1 3-pointers off the bounce. Both are plays the team will need come crunch time in the playoffs.

The core philosophies of the Jazz remain the same. On defense, they’re going to funnel ball handlers into Gobert. On offense, they’re going to drive-and-kick teams to death. It’s a successful formula in the regular season. But the postseason is a different game.

The Bucks, after learning this lesson, spent the 2020-21 regular season introducing some variety into their schemes, and it paid off. Let’s see if the Jazz can do the same.

5. Can the Suns continue rising?

The better question here might be: "Can the rest of us stop ignoring the Suns since, you know, they made the Finals last season, returned their entire starting five and have won 13 games in a row?"

The Suns have everything you want in a contender. They boast the league’s third-best defensive rating and sixth-best offense. Devin Booker is an elite shot-maker. Mikal Bridges is one of the league’s best 3-and-D wings. Deandre Ayton has upped his scoring (16 points per game) and rebounding (12 per game). The addition of JaVale McGee has helped bolster the second unit. And then there’s Chris Paul, who just happens to be leading the league in assists (10.3 per game).

What’s the problem? Well, there isn't one. 

But there are some questions that the Suns will need to answer. Can Paul be healthy come playoff time? And do they have another level they can reach in the playoffs? 

But make no mistake: This Phoenix team is one of the NBA’s best.

Yaron Weitzman is an NBA writer for FOX Sports and the author of "Tanking to the Top: The Philadelphia 76ers and the Most Audacious Process in the History of Professional Sports." Follow him on Twitter @YaronWeitzman.