NBA Roundtable: Where do teams stand at All-Star break?

Though not mathematically correct, the NBA All-Star break serves as a halfway point for teams throughout the league and gives them the opportunity refresh for the final stretch of the season.

This week, our panel of NBA reporters — Ric Bucher, Melissa Rohlin and Yaron Weitzman — discuss where teams stand at the All-Star break and which storylines they're excited to follow when play resumes next week.

1. Team LeBron and Team Giannis will draft their teams before the 2023 NBA All-Star Game tips off on Sunday. Who do you think will be the first two picks? Who do you think will be the last two standing?

Weitzman: I guess I have to go with LeBron taking Kyrie, right? That just seems like the most LeBron move. Who are the other options? It feels like half the rosters are injured anyway. As for Giannis, I'm feeling a Luka pick for him. As for the last two, man, I'm guessing Julius Randle and I was going to say Jrue Holiday, but no way Giannis lets that happen. So let's say Randle and Jaren Jackson Jr.

Bucher: Well, if what Ernie Johnson intimated on TNT is true — that the reserves are going to be picked first to avoid the stigma of someone from the reserves being picked last — then I'm going with LeBron taking the guy he once upon a time unsuccessfully tried to recruit to L.A., Damian Lillard, and Giannis picking his Bucks teammate, Jrue Holiday. I don't know if switching up really solves the problem, though, because it still means two starters will be picked last. Is starting really going to be a consolation, especially for someone like Lauri Markkanen, who is an injury replacement starter? Or Ja Morant, another injury-replacement starter and the other likely last-pick choice? That's only going to super-size the chip on Ja's shoulder that he seems to have been playing with all season.

Rohlin: Funny you ask. I did a mock draft, which you can read here. I think LeBron chooses Kyrie Irving first so he can play with his former Cavs teammate, after telling ESPN he was "disappointed" Irving landed with the Mavericks ahead of the trade deadline. Over the last two years, James, a six-time team captain, has picked Giannis and Steph Curry as his top two picks, but neither are available in this year's draft. As for Giannis, I think he picks Joel Embiid first, just like he did the last time he was team captain in 2020, helping to compensate for Embiid not being voted a starter until he was named Kevin Durant's injury replacement. As for the last two picks, I'm going with Jaren Jackson Jr. and Julius Randle.

2. Which All-Star Saturday Night participant do you think has the potential to be the biggest surprise performer in their event and why?

Weitzman: A few rules for the dunk contest: Bet on little dudes, and bet on dudes who you know are going to take the event seriously. So basically, if you weren't going to get an A-lister to participate — and these days, none do — Mac McClung becomes the ideal candidate. I can't wait to see what he unleashes.

Bucher: I can't wait to see Mac McClung in the dunk contest. As someone 6-foot-1, everything he does is going to look more dynamic — the Spud Webb Effect — and as someone not in the league, I would expect he's going to have the support of the crowd as an underdog. He claims that he has two dunks ready that have never been done before. I have to assume he's been in a dunk contest before, but I couldn't find any tape of one and dunk contests are way different than in-game dunking.

Rohlin: I don't know if he will be a surprise performer, per se, but I think Damian Lillard will win the 3-point contest, after losing the competition at All-Star Weekends in 2014 and 2019. He's having a great season after only playing 29 games in 2021-22 because of an abdominal injury, averaging career-highs in points (31.2) and field-goal percentage (46.7%), while shooting 37.5% from beyond the arc for Portland. Here's to guessing it's finally Dame Time in this competition.

3. Some teams have as little as 21 games left in the season after the All-Star break. Which team has the most pressure to finish the season strong and why?

Weitzman: There are lots of teams that have pressure and need to win: the Sixers, the Mavericks, the Clippers, the Lakers. But the Phoenix Suns just gave up, well, everything for Kevin Durant, and given his age and injury history, and the age and injury history of Chris Paul, I think it's fair to say that this season represents the team's best chance at winning a title. And if they don't win after giving up all that …

Bucher: It feels as if there are a bunch, in part because there are so many teams that have underachieved to this point and are hoping splashy trade-deadline moves pull them out of their doldrums. My top three: the Minnesota Timberwolves, Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks. It would be a massive disappointment if any one of the three didn't make the playoffs. I'm going to put the Mavs at the top of the list just because their timeline feels a lot more urgent. The Wolves are relatively young and still figuring it out, and the Suns have Kevin Durant locked up for several more seasons. The Mavs' big trade-deadline acquisition, Kyrie Irving, could walk this summer, and there are already questions in NBA circles as to when Luka begins grousing about his supporting cast.

Rohlin: The Lakers. It would be an absolute shame if they wasted another incredible season from LeBron James, especially one in which he's putting up unprecedented numbers for someone in their 20th year. The Lakers added six new players ahead of the trade deadline, remaking their team. They're currently in 13th place in the Western Conference, two games behind the 10th place Oklahoma City Thunder for the final play-in spot. They have 23 games to turn things around.

4. Which of the projected buyout free agents can move the needle for a title contender and why?

Weitzman: We do this every year after the trade deadline. We make a big deal over the buy-out guys and talk about who can fill what need, only for the postseason to come, and we recognize why it was that these guys were bought out in the first place. All of which is to say, the answer to the question is none. If you're relying on a buy-out, you're probably not in great shape.

Bucher: I would love to see Derrick Rose on either the Bucks or Clippers as a backup point guard. He has managed a Jason Kidd-like transformation to his game — once an attack-the-rim dynamo who struggled to shoot from range, much like Kidd, he's now a half-court floor organizer and solid 3-point shooter (don't judge him based on his performance this season with the Knicks, as both his role and his playing time have been wildly inconsistent). He has a ton of postseason experience, and he has demonstrated several times over that he is willing and able to cater to a team's younger stars. Both teams also have the requisite defenders to protect him now that he's 34. It would be a sweet story if he could snare a ring after all he's been through physically and as a reward for the work he put in to remake his game.

Rohlin: I'd like to see Russell Westbrook land with the Clippers. First of all, Paul George and Marcus Morris have made it abundantly clear that they'd love to play with him. And second of all, I think his playmaking skills could benefit the team, potentially making things easier for Kawhi Leonard and George. Westbrook's time with the Lakers will be looked at as a blight on his career, but I think if he just moved down the hall at Crypto.com Arena, things could be much better for the former MVP.

5. Which NBA subplot will you be closely following in the final stretch of the season and why?

Weitzman: Can the Clippers finally make their move? This is Year 4 of the Kawhi-Paul George partnership, and the West, despite the addition of Kevin Durant, is there for the taking. The Clippers have spent all season — and really the past — watching their stars rotate in and out of the lineup. Can they string some healthy stretches together and get in peak shape before the playoffs? Or will this team become one known chiefly for its dedication to load management?

Bucher: The beauty of this season is that there are so many of them. There will always be a subplot to follow for any team that has Kyrie, but my eye is going to be on L.A. — both teams. Now that we're in the home stretch, are the Clippers going to dial it up and make good on the expectations the depth of their roster created? Are Kawhi Leonard and Paul George going to be more consistent participants? Do they add a backup point guard or trust that Bones Hyland and Eric Gordon can give them more than John Wall and Reggie Jackson? And then there's the Lakers — how quickly can they gel? Does Darvin Ham have the chops to make all these brand-new pieces work in short order? Now that LeBron has the all-time scoring record and the Lakers have added shooters, does he invest more energy in other parts of his game? Which Anthony Davis are we going to see? Lots of questions. We're about to get answers.

Rohlin: Kevin Durant to Phoenix. The Suns are now a favorite to win the title, and, if they don't, their season will be considered a bust. Durant is one of the top players on the planet and the two-time NBA champion knows how to win. He's a two-time Finals MVP who plays best in big games, something Devin Booker, Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton need to learn how to do following their epic collapse in Game 7 of the second round of the playoffs last season. Durant's presence on the floor will make things easier for everyone else, and he has the know-how to lead them all the way. All eyes will be on this team moving forward.

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