NBA Roundtable: Can Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving will Mavs to playoffs?

The NBA season is down to its final 10 days and only four teams have been eliminated from playoff contention: the Charlotte Hornets, Detroit Pistons, Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs. Everyone else is still in the hunt.

This week, our panel of NBA reporters — Ric Bucher, Melissa Rohlin and Yaron Weitzman — made their predictions for the final playoff spots and previewed potential matchups.

1. The playoff race in the West remains as tight as ever. Which two Western Conference postseason contenders do you see missing the play-in and why?

Bucher: Even though the Oklahoma City Thunder and Utah Jazz appear to have easier schedules, I refuse to believe that Luka Dončić isn't going to find a way to drag the Dallas Mavericks into the play-in tournament. I also am not convinced that the Jazz and Thunder, at this point, won't manipulate their player availability and rotations in the fourth quarter to reduce their chances of winning. Although it's been floated that the Mavs should tank, I just don't see Luka and JKidd going along with that.

Weitzman: The Mavericks just seem like a mess. They're 5-14 since Kyrie Irving made his debut, can't defend anyone and Kyrie's already making weird postgame statements. I'd bet against them reeling off a few wins to end the season. I also think the Jazz are content with sort of bowing out of the playoff hunt and hoping for some draft lottery luck. They're a rebuilding team that already has exceeded all expectations.

Rohlin: The Jazz and the Mavericks. The Jazz, who are currently in 12th place, have already exceeded expectations this season after blowing up their team by trading away both Donovan MItchell and Rudy Gobert. Lauri Markkanen became an All-Star. The Jazz were even atop the Western Conference standings for a short while. Even if they don't make the play-in tournament, this season will be considered a success for them. As for the Mavericks, they've been experiencing the league's biggest and most shocking slide. Remember when they recently lost two games in a row to the Charlotte Hornets, who have the second-worst record in the East? I don't see them being able to turn things around in time. 

2. Golden State has won four of five, including back-to-back road wins. Assuming they make it, how far will the Warriors go in the postseason?

Bucher: Well, I said on TV today that if forced to pick a favorite, I'd take the Warriors to come out of the West. I'd have to be forced, though, because I believe the conference title is as up for grabs as it's ever been. I don't think the Warriors get there without Andrew Wiggins and there remains no indication if or when he'll be back. But the Warriors are 18-0 in Western Conference playoff rounds and that intrinsic understanding of what it takes to win a seven-game series is something no other contender has to the extent that this Warriors' squad does.

Weitzman: They are putting together what I think is the strangest, most confounding season in recent memory, but here's the thing: I would never bet against Steph Curry. When he's on the court, the Warriors are not just dangerous, but probably the favorites in any matchup. And in a wide open west, I would not be surprised if the Warriors wind up reaching the finals. 

Rohlin: The thing that has plagued the Warriors all season is winning on the road. They're showing signs that they've cracked that barrier at the right time, which means trouble for the rest of the league. Even though the Warriors have struggled this season, they're still the league's most recent dynasty, winning four championships in the last eight years. They know how to win when it counts. And come playoff time, we're going to see a different Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green, who have repeatedly proven that they thrive in high-pressure situations. They could easily make the Finals in the wide open West. 

3. What did you make of Joel Embiid missing the second matchup of the season against Nikola Jokić? Did it seal the MVP award for Denver's two-time winner?

Bucher: As much as I don't like what it says about the league today that stars seem all too comfortable ducking head-to-head matchups with rival stars, I find it appalling that anyone would base their MVP choice on one game. Especially since load management decisions aren't made unilaterally by a player and we don't know the severity of Embiid's calf issue. I'd also argue that had Embiid and Jokić faced off, it would've been inappropriate to make the outcome the deciding factor on who should win MVP. Or that Embiid out-scoring and out-rebounding Jokić while winning their matchup earlier this season should be the deciding factor. The first matchup is a data point, one among many. The second non-matchup is meaningless, other than Embiid has one less game on his season total.

Weitzman: I wouldn't base an MVP pick on just one game, no. What Embiid has working against him, though, is that he's played five fewer games than Jokić, which is not a big difference, but when the margin between two guys is as thin as the one between Jokić and Embiid, it's the sort of thing that can matter. More telling, though, is that Embiid needed a game off to deal with the lingering calf injury. For a player who's had multiple postseason runs ruins by injuries, the fact that he's got a calf issue as we wind down the season should concern Sixers fans.

Rohlin: The fact that this is even being discussed is ridiculous. The MVP Award is based upon a season of work, not a singular game. That being said, with many considering Jokić and Embiid neck-to-neck in this race, it's obvious that whoever dominated that game likely would've been given a slight edge at a crucial juncture. It's disappointing that Embiid didn't play. But that being said, Embiid missing the game should not dock him any so-called points. That decision often belongs to the medical staff and not the player.

4. What are your thoughts on Ben Simmons' future after he was ruled out for the rest of the season?

Bucher: This may come off as extreme, but I could see Ben retiring. I just don't get the impression that his passion for playing basketball is strong enough to overcome whatever back and psychological issues he has. He's made a boatload of money. From a personality standpoint, I could see him being one of those guys who dips on the league and falls completely out of the public eye. 

Weitzman: I don't know what his future holds, but as someone who's covered Simmons for a long time I just find this whole story incredibly sad. It's also completely unprecedented. We've had No. 1 picks who became busts, we've had high draft picks take a long time to find their footing, and we've had stars' careers derailed by significant injuries. But I don't think we've ever had a top pick with an All-NBA nod on his résumé just fall off a cliff like this.  

Rohlin: Simmons' future in the league seems very tenuous. I'm sure at some point, a lot more will come out of what he has gone through over the past couple of years, both mentally and physically. But his stock has plummeted, which, as Yaron said, is incredibly sad for any athlete, especially a former No. 1 pick.

5. If the Lakers enter the playoffs as a 7- or 8-seed, what chance do you give them to beat presumable 1-seed Denver? Presumable 2-seed Memphis?

Bucher: I could see the Lakers giving the Nuggets a challenge, but the Grizzlies would be too much for them. The Lakers and Nuggets split the season series, 2-2, and all four games were played well before the trade deadline, when the Lakers made several notable improvements. The Lakers are at their best when they play up-tempo and the Nuggets are not comfortable playing that way; that would be the Lakers' path to an upset or making it a tough series. But the Grizzlies love to play fast, so there's no advantage to be gained there, Even the new-look Lakers don't have enough athleticism to stay with the Grizz in an up-and-down game.

Weitzman: Any team featuring a healthy LeBron and AD is going to be a tough out. The fact that this post-trade-deadline version of the Lakers actually makes sense as a basketball team, and actually has a rotation full of legitimate NBA players, should worry the rest of the West. But let's not kid ourselves: Memphis and Denver are both better, more complete squads who have stars of their own. I'd be surprised if either fell to the Lakers. 

Rohlin: I honestly could see the Lakers beating both teams. Throughout the season, both Lebron James and Anthony Davis have looked like the best players in the league at various times. If they could figure out how to do that at the same time, they'd be incredibly tough to beat. Not to mention, the New Look Lakers are a completely different team. They have playmaking in D'Angelo Russell, sharpshooting in Malik Beasley and rim protection in Jarred Vanderbilt. And Austin Reaves has emerged as a star of sorts as of late. If this team gets rolling, no one will want to play them — or potentially be able to stop them.

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