NBA Power Rankings: Suns, Heat, Bucks lead down the stretch
By Yaron Weitzman
FOX Sports NBA Writer
The All-Star break is over, which makes this a perfect time to reassess where everyone in the NBA stands.
Most teams have played around 60 games, meaning they have about 22 left. In other words: The season is almost done. With that in mind, let’s get to some power rankings (with odds via FOX Bet).
1. Phoenix Suns (title odds: +425)
Yes, Chris Paul missing six-to-eight weeks with a right thumb fracture stings. But also, eh. The Suns have a 6.5-game lead in the West on the second-place Golden State Warriors and an easy schedule to close out the season (13 of their 24 remaining games are against teams below .500).
Also, this is not a group that needs to worry about chemistry and continuity. The Suns are rolling with a core that made the Finals last season. They own the league’s top point differential and are third in both offense and defense. As long as Paul is back by the first round, this team is the favorite to come out of the West.
2. Miami Heat (+1000)
The Heat are in first place — and the only team in the Eastern Conference to rank in the top 10 in both offense and defense — despite their four best players (Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro and Kyle Lowry) having shared the court for a total of 65 minutes. That group is healthy now.
3. Milwaukee Bucks (+650)
Would anyone be shocked if the Bucks ran off, like, 17 wins in their final 20 games and claimed the conference’s top spot? No, they haven’t looked great this season, especially on defense, but they still have Giannis Antetokounmpo, who’s playing as well as ever (29.4 points, 11.2 rebound, 6.0 assists per game) and a strong supporting cast. It does, however, look like their chances at a repeat could come down to whether Brook Lopez returns from a back injury that has kept him out for the majority of the season.
4. Brooklyn Nets (+500)
On the one hand, there are myriad reasons to be skeptical of the Nets: Kevin Durant is injured; Kyrie is Kyrie; Ben Simmons hasn’t played all season.
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Right now, they’re in eighth place and 2.5 games behind the sixth-place Boston Celtics, meaning the Nets could very well find themselves fighting for their season in the play-in tournament. And let’s say they face the Raptors in Toronto during the play-in tournament. Does that mean Irving won’t be able to suit up due to his vaccination status?
All that said, the upside here is unlike that of any other team in the NBA. Durant, Irving and Simmons are perfect fits for one another. Toss in the sweet shooting of Seth Curry, and you have a group that you can be sure no one will want to face come playoff time.
Also, the Nets received some good news Wednesday:
5. Golden State Warriors (+450)
We know what the Warriors are, but their season is going to come down to what Draymond Green looks like upon returning to the floor. He has been out since Jan. 5 due to a back injury. He said during the All-Star Game that he’s "hoping" to be back in three-to-four weeks.
The Warriors need him. With Green on the floor, they’re the league’s top defense. Without him, they’re just pretty good — and have no chance of beating the Suns.
6. Philadelphia 76ers (+650)
I’m a bit dubious about how well James Harden and Joel Embiid will jell. Harden has never played with a post player like Embiid, and Embiid has never played with a ball-dominant perimeter scorer like Harden. They’ll also have to figure out how to blend the two on defense; Harden wants to switch everything, which is not the optimal strategy for a defense built around Embiid’s genius as a rim protector.
That said, Embiid is playing better than anyone in the league, and we know what Harden is capable of.
7. Memphis Grizzlies (+2800)
Yeah, they’re young and have never been "there" before, but everything about this team screams contender: fifth-best point differential, fifth-best offense, ninth-best defense, an MVP-level star in Ja Morant, depth, shooting. They’re going to have to prove that they can score in the half court, but in a West without a clear-cut No. 2 team, this young group just might have a shot.
8. Chicago Bulls (+3000)
A five-game winning streak entering the All-Star break propelled the Bulls back to the East’s No. 2 spot. The offense, behind DeMar DeRozan’s brilliance (he deserves to be in the MVP conversation), is No. 2 in the league. The defense, however, is just 20th. The returns of Alex Caruso and Lonzo Ball will make a huge impact there. I don’t know if I’d pick the Bulls in a series over the Bucks, Sixers, Nets or Heat, but if they knocked one or two of them off, I wouldn’t be shocked.
9. Boston Celtics (+2800)
Did you know the Celtics own the league’s No. 2 defense? Or that their starting lineup — Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Al Horford and Robert Williams — has outscored opponents by 26.5 points per 100 possessions, basically the top mark in the league?
The Celtics won 11 of 13 entering the break. Can they keep this up? The combination of a suffocating defense plus half-court shot creation from Tatum and Brown would seem to be a dangerous formula.
10. Denver Nuggets (+3000)
Team president Tim Connelly left open the possibility that Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. could return before the end of the season.
I’d still be surprised if they played. But in the meantime, let’s appreciate the greatness of Nikola Jokic.
11. Dallas Mavericks (+4000)
I’m not exactly sure how Jason Kidd has done it, but he has somehow transformed a group that finished last year as one of the NBA’s worst defenses into the league’s fifth-most stingy unit this season. I’m not quite buying that they can perform at this level in the playoffs, but good defense plus the brilliance of Luka Doncic is a combination no opponent will want to face.
12. Utah Jazz (+1600)
Entering the season, the Jazz were supposed to be title contenders. I think it’s safe to say that ship has sailed. Sure, they still boast the league’s top-ranked offense, and they still have Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell. But not finding a wing upgrade before the trade deadline was a mistake. With Danny Ainge now running the show, it feels like the Mitchell-Gobert-Mike Conley core is on its last legs.
13. Cleveland Cavaliers (+4500)
The Cavs remain one of the best stories in the NBA. Everything that happens the rest of the season is gravy. They have an awesome core to build around in Darius Garland, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. They also have a coach in J.B. Bickerstaff who clearly knows how to scheme a defense (Cavs are No. 4 there) and coax effort out of his players (Exhibit A: Kevin Love).
14. Toronto Raptors (+10000)
I don’t know where this all goes, but few teams are better positioned than the Raptors for the future. Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby are all 27 years old or younger and signed long-term. Rookie Scottie Barnes looks like a potential All-Star. I don’t know if the Raptors will make it out of the play-in this year, but I’m also not sure it matters. This is another team to watch over the next couple of years.
15. Minnesota Timberwolves (+12500)
Three games above .500! Seemingly a shoo-in for play-in and perhaps even the playoffs! Two young stars in Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards who are improving and seemingly happy! When was the last time the future was this bright in Minnesota?
16. LA Clippers (+8000)
The absence of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George has allowed players such as Reggie Jackson, Terance Mann and Luke Kennard to thrive. This season might be a wash, but when (if?) Leonard and George return next season, they’re going to be joining a team that is better than before.
17. Atlanta Hawks (+10000)
No. 2 in offense, No. 27 in defense? Sounds about right. The Hawks surged last season after the All-Star break. This season, they have an easy schedule the rest of the way. The question is: Can they finally put things together on both ends?
18. Charlotte Hornets (+20000)
The Hornets' losing nine of 10 entering the break was not great. The offense has fallen off a bit, too. You know this young group would love to make the playoffs. The fact that the Wizards and Pacers have seemingly thrown in the towel should help, meaning the Hornets should only need to hold off the Knicks.
19. Los Angeles Lakers (+3300)
How are things going in L.A.?
OK, well, that seems weird …
Yes, very normal for a team’s star to be using every platform possible to compliment GMs from other teams.
20. New Orleans Pelicans (+50000)
Speaking of circuses …
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Zion Williamson has yet to play this season, but he's making headlines. CJ McCollum said he hasn't heard from Williamson since he was traded to New Orleans. JJ Redick called Williamson a "detached teammate." Emmanuel Acho weighs in on the controversy.
Meanwhile, the CJ McCollum trade is not exactly working out as planned. He’s averaging 28.4 points in his five games with the Pelicans, which is great. Not so great: The Pelicans lost four of those games because they surrendered 125 points per 100 possessions.
21. San Antonio Spurs (+100000)
Gregg Popovich is two wins shy of tying Don Nelson for most wins all time. I, for one, cannot wait to hear his gushing speech celebrating this achievement.
22. Washington Wizards (+50000)
Swapping out Montrezl Harrell and Spencer Dinwiddie will make everyone in that locker room happier (Harrell and Dinwiddie weren’t exactly beloved teammates). And I love the flier on Kristaps Porzingis.
Will any of it matter, though, in convincing Bradley Beal, who’s out for the rest of the season and is a free agent in the summer, to re-sign with the Wizards?
23. Portland Trail Blazers (+50000)
Ironically, the Blazers reeled off four straight wins after they basically shipped out everything not nailed to the floor at the trade deadline. Those might be the last four games they win this season.
24. Sacramento Kings (+150000)
The Kings might be the only team in the NBA desperate to chase a play-in spot. Whether they’re successful is irrelevant. What is worth paying attention to down the stretch is how their new core of De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis fits.
25. New York Knicks (+50000)
Lol.
That is all.
26. Indiana Pacers (+75000)
It’s tanking time in Indiana. And that’s the right move. The key in the offseason will be how they decide to surround the newly acquired Tyrese Haliburton, Myles Turner and Malcolm Brogdon.
27. Oklahoma City Thunder (+300000)
Soon the Thunder are going to be too good to tank. You know about Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, but if you haven’t seen rookie Josh Giddey play, well, you’re missing out.
28. Detroit Pistons (+500000)
No. 1 pick Cade Cunningham (15.7 points, 5.2 assists) has looked better and better as the season has inched along. The rest of the roster? Yeesh.
29. Houston Rockets (+75000)
The Rockets are last in defense and third-to-last in offense. They are the only team that ranks in the bottom five on both ends of the floor.
30. Orlando Magic (+500000)
You know how I know Robin Lopez loves Disney World? Because he has made it through nearly the entire season in Orlando without asking for a trade or buy-out.
Yaron Weitzman is an NBA writer for FOX Sports and the author of "Tanking to the Top: The Philadelphia 76ers and the Most Audacious Process in the History of Professional Sports." Follow him on Twitter @YaronWeitzman.