NBA playoffs: Scouts favor Bucks, Sixers over Heat, Celtics in East

By Ric Bucher
FOX Sports NBA Writer

The distinction NBA talent evaluators make between regular-season and playoff ability is reflected in their view of how well the current Eastern Conference standings predict postseason success.

In the scouts' estimation, pay little attention to the standings.

Entering Wednesday's games, the Miami Heat have the conference’s best record, with the Boston Celtics seeded second, even though record-wise, they are tied with the Milwaukee Bucks and Philadelphia 76ers at 49-30.

In the view of three different scouts, neither the Heat nor the Celtics have the best chance of representing the conference in the NBA Finals. With the Heat, their view is actually a compliment, in that the scouts believe coach Erik Spoelstra has maximized his roster’s capabilities to put Miami at the top of the standings. Playing hard on a consistent basis, particularly on defense, has allowed the Heat to win and win often — in the regular season.

"They play a different brand of basketball than just about everybody else," one Eastern Conference scout said. "They’re crafty, and they don’t back down."

But when it comes to the playoffs, every team plays hard. Every team executes its game plan. As a result, the advantage shifts to those teams with players who have the skill and physical superiority to pierce a tightly woven defense or thwart a finely tuned offense, especially in the final minutes with winning or losing in the balance.

In other words, team engines in the playoffs run on star power.

"Successful playoff basketball demands offensively creative players who can create for themselves and for others," one Western Conference scout said. "Everyone loves high-performance cars. I love high-performance NBA players."

And that’s where the Heat and Celtics fall short. The Heat attempted to shore up that flaw last summer by signing point guard Kyle Lowry away from the Toronto Raptors with a three-year, $85 million contract, but he has struggled to stay healthy, missing 17 of Miami's 79 games to date. Unless he finds the form he had in helping the Raptors to the 2019 championship, the Heat are left with swingman Jimmy Butler as their best go-to threat with a game on the line. 

How well that has worked is reflected by the Heat’s record in games decided by three or fewer points: 3-6. That’s the second-worst record in that category of any team currently eligible for the playoffs, including those in the play-in slots.

The worst? The Celtics at 3-9. That's why, despite Boston's torrid pace since mid-January — 28-8 since Jan. 15 after a 21-22 start — the three scouts all expressed concerns about the team's postseason viability.

What distinguishes the Celtics from the Heat is that in them, scouts have seen glimpses of the necessary star power to make a deep playoff run — just not consistently. Forward Jayson Tatum has been the biggest driving force in the 28-8 run, being a plus-15 points or higher every month since December. In March, he averaged 32.8 points on 53.8% shooting, 44.7% from 3 and 90.5% at the free-throw line.

But this is the same Tatum who averaged 23.3 points in November while shooting 39.3%.

Then there’s Jaylen Brown, the Celtics' second-best player at creating his own shot, and Marcus Smart, their best playmaker. Both have been solid at both ends of the floor, particularly Smart as a Defensive Player of the Year candidate, but they, too, have been inconsistent.

"I’m not completely sold on Jaylen Brown as the No. 2," a second Eastern Conference scout said. "If he has to step up and carry them for a game or two, it remains to be seen if that is possible. Looking at his numbers, I may be wrong to be skeptical, but I am."

Looking at Brown's overall numbers, maybe — but not at his monthly splits, which rise and fall like a San Andreas seismic graph: 40.9% 3-point shooting in November, 28.3% 3-point shooting in February, 40.9% overall shooting in December, 49% shooting in March.

Smart has been the Celtics’ wild card for several seasons now, as capable of making incredible, game-winning plays as taking an ill-timed, low-percentage shot. 

"He seems to have reined in some of his bad shot selection," the second Eastern Conference scout said. "But I’m not sure that might not rear its ugly head at the wrong time."

If Tatum, Brown and Smart are all at their best, both the Western Conference scout and first Eastern Conference scout believe the Celtics could make it to the conference finals. 

"There’s a path for them to get there," the Eastern Conference scout said.

"The two wings are their engine," the Western Conference scout said, "and Smart is the lubricant."

One last factor for the Celtics entering the postseason is the uncertain date of return for center Robert Williams, a defensive linchpin. Williams had knee surgery last week and is expected to miss at least three more weeks.

"Their biggest plus is their commitment to defense," the Western Conference scout said. "But missing Robert Williams is problematic. If he returns at full strength, they can still be legit."

For now, the favorites among the scouts to come out of the East are the defending champion Bucks, followed closely by the 76ers. One reason is that both have a pair of bona fide, go-to scorers: Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton for Milwaukee and Joel Embiid and James Harden for the 76ers. 

Not surprisingly, the Bucks are 4-2 in games decided by three or fewer points, while the Sixers are 6-6.

"I know what I’m going to get from Milwaukee," the second Eastern Conference scout said. "Obviously, that applies to Giannis, but Middleton is playing better, as is [Jrue] Holiday. But Giannis can be too much for anyone to handle if he wants to be. And he has that mentality now."

Asked for the best bets to pull an upset, the scouts pointed to two teams: the Raptors and Brooklyn Nets. The Raptors are currently the fifth seed, which would give them a first-round matchup with the 76ers. The Nets are currently 10th, which means they’d have to win two play-in games to secure the eighth seed and then face the Heat. 

Given a choice between Miami’s fifth-ranked defense and the clutch shotmaking ability of Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and Seth Curry, the first Eastern Conference scout would lean toward Brooklyn.

"If I’m Miami, I don’t want to see Brooklyn in the first round," he said. "I’m a big believer in how teams play on the road and how they finish the season. Could Brooklyn do what Atlanta did and surprise everyone? I can’t count them out." 

The Nets are one of two Eastern playoff teams with a better record on the road (23-17) than at home (18-20), no doubt in part because of Irving’s inability to play at home for most of the season because of New York’s vaccination mandate. The other team is the Raptors, who have been one of the bigger surprises in the league. They’re also respectable in close games — matching Philly’s 6-6 record in games decided by three or fewer points.

The first Eastern Conference scout believes the Sixers should be rooting for the Chicago Bulls, currently sixth and one game behind the Raptors, to move up to fifth. 

"I like Toronto more than Chicago," he said. "The Raptors are just better as a team, and that would be a tough matchup for Philadelphia. Nick Nurse knows what he’s doing, and they’ve got plenty of playoff experience."

With a week left in the regular season, not a single first-round matchup is anywhere close to settled. Nor is the seeding among the top six teams, beyond the Heat being the likely No. 1. But in the minds of the scouts, the seeding is merely a formality. 

The most dangerous teams have already been identified.

Ric Bucher is an NBA writer for FOX Sports. He previously wrote for Bleacher Report, ESPN The Magazine and The Washington Post and has written two books, "Rebound," the story of NBA forward Brian Grant’s battle with young onset Parkinson’s, and "Yao: A Life In Two Worlds," the story of NBA center Yao Ming. He also has a daily podcast, "On The Ball with Ric Bucher." Follow him on Twitter @RicBucher.