NBA playoffs 2021: How to bet every first-round series
By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
The play-in games are complete, and the field is set for the first round of the 2021 NBA playoffs. You know what that means, don't you? It's time to place your bets!
Lines are live for Game 1 in each series, but if you ask me, betting game-to-game in the NBA can be tough. Fun but tough – especially if you limit yourself to the traditional markets such as point spread and moneyline.
Instead, when it comes to the postseason, I love to look at series prices. It takes out some of the variance and allows you a chance to cash in big if you have the right read on an underdog.
So let's dive in on the odds to win the series for each of the first-round matchups and my picks, in the order that the series tip off (with all odds via FOX Bet).
SATURDAY
Milwaukee Bucks (-333) vs. Miami Heat
The public loves to bet the Bucks because they’ve been dominant for two straight regular seasons, but the inflated lines this season resulted in a down year for Milwaukee against the spread (32-40, 44 %).
Milwaukee upgraded from Eric Bledsoe to Jrue Holiday, and the P.J. Tucker addition allows the team to space the floor on offense and be versatile on defense. The problem for the Bucks has been coach Mike Budenholzer’s lack of playoff adjustments, and the results have been his getting coached into a body bag by Nick Nurse two years ago and Erik Spoelstra in the bubble. (Speaking of Spoelstra, how about his strategy of not playing Jimmy Butler once this season against the Bucks or Nets?)
Giannis Antetokounmpo averaged just 16.7 PPG in three games this season facing the Heat, who mostly had Bam Adebayo against him. That was Giannis' lowest scoring average versus any opponent. If you couldn’t tell, I like the Heat here. The Bucks are second in transition points (24.5) per game; the Heat allowed only 10 fast-break points per game, fewest in the NBA. Strong lean to the Heat in seven.
Pick: Heat to win in seven (+850; bet $10 to win $95 total)
LA Clippers (-400) vs. Dallas Mavericks
The Clippers rate higher in offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency and lead the NBA in 3-point shooting. No metric points to the Mavericks having much of a chance. But when these two teams met in the playoffs last year, the Mavs won two – including Luka Doncic winning one at the buzzer – before fading in Games 5 and 6.
There are two big differences this time: Kristaps Porzingis is healthy, and so is Jalen Brunson. Porzingis gave the Clippers fits in three games last year (23.7 PPG, 52% 3-point shooting), and his health is paramount.
A key to the series could be the pick-and-roll dominance of Doncic and Dwight Powell, the latter of whom also missed last year’s playoff series. I'm very curious to see the Clippers' backcourt rotation, especially when Rajon Rondo is a guy you need on the floor, but Reggie Jackson and Patrick Beverley will want to play. Serge Ibaka’s health is the ultimate X-factor for the Clippers, who lack rim protection and will struggle to have confidence in Ivica Zubac on the floor late against the pick-and-roll.
I will look to bet the Mavs often, and Dallas winning in seven wouldn’t surprise me at all.
Pick: Mavericks to win in seven (+1000; bet $10 to win $110 total)
Brooklyn Nets (-1200) vs. Boston Celtics
The Nets are heavy favorites in this series, as their big three is healthy, and Boston is … not. Despite Jayson Tatum’s 50-burger against Washington in the play-in, few are giving the Celtics a chance without Jaylen Brown (24.7 PPG, 39% 3-point shooting).
Boston has some advantages, starting with Brad Stevens against first-time head coach Steve Nash. Boston is tied for third in the league in offensive rebounds per game, and it is a better defensive team than the Nets (14th in defensive efficiency). As down as Boston fans are on the Celtics this season, this is a team that has been to the Eastern Conference finals three of the past four years, and Marcus Smart remains one of the best defenders in the league. His matchup with James Harden will be fascinating.
That said, the Nets are the better team. The best bet here might be to call my shot and take the Nets to win in six games (+350; bet $10 to win $45 total). Brooklyn’s big three has played eight games together. They’ll have to work out some kinks and could take a couple extra games to do it.
Pick: Nets to win in six (+350; bet $10 to win $45 total)
Portland Trail Blazers (-133) vs. Denver Nuggets
Turn on a TV or radio or open social media, and all you’ll hear about in this series is the Nuggets and their likely MVP, Nikola Jokic.
There’s zero talk about the Portland Trail Blazers, except that the team could be overhauled this summer. And Portland is ranked 29th in defensive efficiency, so why would I – or anyone – like them?
Well, the market has this series as a virtual toss-up for a reason. The backcourt edge is perhaps the largest of any first-round series: Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum versus … ? It’s unclear whom the Nuggets will start, given the injuries to Jamal Murray (22 PPG vs. the Clippers in last year’s series; 40 points in Game 7) and Will Barton. This is yet another series in which you can discount many of the regular-season stats because of injuries.
Jusuf Nurkic versus Jokic should be fun (remember, Denver traded Nurk in 2017), and I’ll be looking for prop bets on Michael Porter Jr. to go over his point total because he’s not a great matchup for the Blazers. But Portland winning in six or seven seems like the most likely outcome.
SUNDAY
Philadelphia 76ers (-1000) vs. Washington Wizards
The 76ers should roll, but a fun subplot is that Joel Embiid and Russell Westbrook do not like each other, with history dating to when Russ was in OKC. Expect fireworks.
The Wizards will have no answer for Embiid, and it’ll be interesting to see how Westbrook does if he’s defended by Ben Simmons. A sweep is the most likely scenario, but you can’t discount Bradley Beal going for 50 and the Wizards stealing a game at home.
Los Angeles Lakers (-162) vs. Phoenix Suns
Besides the health of 36-year-old LeBron James – 22 points, 11 rebounds and 10 assists Wednesday against the Warriors – being a massive factor, how well the Lakers do here could hinge upon whether Anthony Davis wants to play center. He has made it clear that he doesn’t like it, but the Lakers are at their best when he’s the lone big on the floor. He shot 9-for-13 against Golden State when playing center; he was 1-for-11 when paired with Andre Drummond or Montrezl Harrell.
As for Phoenix? We wrote about the Chris Paul factor a few weeks ago, and when he’s on your team, you will cover the spread and win a lot of games … in the regular season. The Suns were 42-28-2 against the spread (ATS), covering 60% of their games, second only to the Knicks.
Still, the Suns' playoff inexperience is alarming. Three starters have never played a playoff game, and coach Monty Williams has never won a playoff series. The Suns won’t be swept – this feels like the Lakers win the series in five or six games – but I’d look to bet Phoenix in the opener.
Atlanta Hawks (-125) vs. New York Knicks
Tom Thibodeau is a Coach of the Year finalist because the Knicks won 20 more games than they did last season, and they’re in the playoffs for the first time since 2013. The Knicks have been so bad for so long, they were a cash cow against the spread this season, but the public missed out on the money train, as New York was the top covering team in the NBA (45-26-1 ATS, 63%).
The Knicks excelled thanks to a terrific bench, with three players averaging double figures (Derrick Rose, Alec Burks, Immanuel Quickley), but in the postseason, when teams slow the pace and shrink usage of reserves, how will Thibodeau handle his rotation?
The market says this series is a coin flip. New York wins with defense (third), Atlanta with offense (eighth). I’ll be backing the better offense here and betting the Hawks to win the series.
Pick: Hawks to win the series (-125; bet $10 to win $18 total)
Utah Jazz (-1250) vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Donovan Mitchell has missed the past 16 games because of an ankle injury and practiced for the first time in a month this week. He won’t be close to 100 percent. And the Jazz are going to need him because the Grizzlies are a plucky, tough bunch that matches up well with Utah.
Jonas Valanciunas outplayed Rudy Gobert once and to a standstill in another matchup. Memphis was sixth in defensive efficiency, and if they can get enough offense from Dillon Brooks and Kyle Anderson, stealing a game or two is not out of the question. When Brooks scores 20+ points, Memphis is 37-14 over the last two seasons.
But a game or two should be all the Grizzlies get. The Jazz offense has been a juggernaut all season (third in efficiency), and it ultimately will wear down this young Memphis team.
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Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.