NBA odds: Lines on Deandre Ayton's next team, from Pistons to Hornets
With NBA free agency opening at 6 p.m. ET on June 30, the best big man available is Deandre Ayton of the Phoenix Suns. Although no franchise has had more wins in the last 700 days, it appears they are ready to move on from the top pick of the 2018 NBA Draft.
How did we get here?
To put things in simple terms, Ayton wants a max contract. After failing to grant him a rookie extension in 2021, it's clear the Suns do not view him as a maximum level player. Therefore, this Thursday he becomes a restricted free agent and gamblers everywhere are wondering where he will end up next.
The 6-foot-11, 250-pound center averaged 17.2 points and 10.2 rebounds on 63% shooting as he manned the middle for the scorching-hot Suns en route to a 64-win season, a year after making the NBA finals. With his pick-n-roll skills and defensive chops, one would think this is a recipe for long-term success. So why wouldn’t his strong play lead to a guaranteed max contract?
Well for starters, Ayton lacks shot-creation ability. Unlike his idol, Hakeem Olajuwon, you can’t toss the ball into him and expect your offensive sets to run fluidly. He's also had trouble reading defenses and finding open teammates, too often focused solely on the basket. Furthermore, on the defensive end, while he is great at stopping the roller in screen action and defending the post, he is a bit flat-footed and has trouble containing quick guards on switches. Despite Ayton's reputation as a defensive stopper, he does not get a ton of blocks and steals — averaging less than one of each per game.
Ultimately it looks like Phoenix doesn’t want to give max money to a big man that isn't elite offensively (e.g., Joel Embiid or Nikola Jokic) or defensively (e.g., Rudy Gobert). Now you can understand why a 23-year-old double-double machine with a 7-foot-5 wing span might be on another squad next season.
To get some insight on the topic, we turned to FOX Bet for hypothetical odds on the teams most likely to have Deandre Ayton’s services for the opening day of the 2022-2023 NBA season.
ODDS ON DEANDRE AYTON’S NEXT TEAM*
Detroit Pistons: +150 (bet $10 to win $25 total)
Phoenix Suns: +200 (bet $10 to win $30 total)
Indiana Pacers: +700 (bet $10 to win $80 total)
Charlotte Hornets: +800 (bet $10 to win $90 total)
San Antonio Spurs: +1000 (bet $10 to win $110 total)
New York Knicks: +1200 (bet $10 to win $130 total)
Washington Wizards: +1200 (bet $10 to win $130 total)
*odds as of 6/29/2022
At +150, the Detroit Pistons are the favorites to snag Ayton from the Suns. Currently in a complete rebuild, the fit with the Pistons would seem to be perfect, at least on paper. They just selected Jaden Ivey in the 2022 draft to join the talented young core of Cade Cunningham, Saddiq Bey and Marvin Bagley. Adding Deandre to this squad might not provide immediate benefits, but if this core blooms, the Pistons could be on pace to hold another championship parade in the Motown streets a couple of years down the road.
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The Phoenix Suns had a disappointing season with an early playoff elimination after losing to the Dallas Mavericks in the Western Conference Semifinals. A report has emerged that Deandre Ayton is likely to leave the Suns this offseason. Ayton and the Suns had contract disputes prior to the season and another report said he clashed with Head Coach Monty Willams during their playoff exit. Colin Cowherd explains why it is time for the Suns to move off from the former No. 1 pick.
The Suns (+200) are the second favorites for Ayton, mostly because as a restricted free agent they have the option of matching whatever offer he receives. However, matching the offer that he signs elsewhere could only serve to further ruin the shaky relationship between Ayton and the Suns. It bears repeating that Phoenix has had tremendous success over the last 23 months (going back to the Orlando Bubble). Would they really let the talented center they selected over Trae Young and Luka Dončić bolt?
If you're keeping track, Ayton is only the second No.1 pick to reach restricted free agency — Greg Oden being the other.
One long-shot team that makes sense is the Charlotte Hornets (+800). Facing a decision with one of their own restricted free agents, Miles Bridges, could they make a run for one of the best young bigs in the NBA?
"Ayton is a good value bet to suit up for Michael Jordan’s Hornets next season," FOX Bet sports trader Tieme Wesselink stated. "The Hornets are in desperate need of a good inside presence to compete with the East's top teams, and Ayton’s age also meshes well with their core led by LaMelo Ball."
Wesselink brings up a good point, Ayton's offensive deficiencies wouldn’t be as much of a problem with a shot-creator like LaMelo Ball. The big man would have ample opportunity for rim destruction on that end while manning the paint and making outlet passes to Ball on the other. Perhaps a change in scenery is all that is needed for the former top pick to reach his full potential.
Anything can happen in the Association! Ayton's next move is sure to be a big one, so stay tuned to see which team he suits up for next.
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