NBA odds: How professionals are betting the remainder of the NBA season
By Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
Betting the NBA with 20 regular-season games left can be extremely difficult.
Eight teams are basically eliminated, the New York Knicks, Indiana Pacers, Portland Trail Blazers and San Antonio Spurs are all on life support and even surefire playoff squads tend to jockey for seeds to avoid the heavy hitters.
It’s all a part of the risk you run when you fire a bet down the home stretch.
"My favorite NBA betting time is during the dog days," basketball handicapper and Fantasy NBA Today host Dan Besbris told FOX Sports. "You know pretty much everybody is coasting along at like 70% on a night-to-night basis. You can handicap during the dog days by almost exclusively using motivational angles, and that’s generally not baked into the betting line.
"But that stuff kind of goes away in the final weeks of the season. Teams start to see the finish line, and you can’t count on everybody going at 70% anymore. You’re going to get teams that care a little bit more and others that care a little less. It gets exceptionally complicated because a lot of the time the teams that are expected to try harder — like a must-win game — that’s already been accounted for by the guys behind the counter.
"Betting the NBA down the stretch is more of a cautionary tale. If you see some talking head ranting about how Team X must win and they’re going to play harder, that person is probably two steps behind the number."
One team that Besbris refuses to bet his hard-earned money on is the Los Angeles Lakers. They are the sixth-worst cover team in the league at 26-35 ATS — Brooklyn (24-38-1) is the worst — and oddsmakers are now making the Lakers more expensive to bet because they’re in "must-win mode."
So if Los Angeles is a 2.5-point favorite, the true line is closer to a pick ‘em.
"There were only two or three times this entire season where I actually considered a Lakers bet," Besbris admitted. "They are a horrific dumpster fire these days. They only play hard when they’re down by 25, and the opponent stops playing hard. Every game has been the same script lately. The Lakers hang around in the first quarter, then get steamrolled in the second quarter and play catch-up the rest of the game.
"I would argue that we still don’t truly know what that team is when LeBron James and Anthony Davis are healthy. Unfortunately, that’s a feature of the program in Los Angeles at this point. A.D. is just not going to stay healthy, and LeBron is getting old and he’s starting to suffer more and more small injuries.
"I’m done with the Lakers on a night-to-night basis. The postseason is a different bird. They’ll stay in the play-in tournament, and they can emerge from that with a healthy Davis. But they’ll get completely waxed by the Suns or the Warriors. They’re a middling Western Conference team.
"The best-case scenario is L.A. losing in the first round."
So we shouldn’t bet them to win the West at 25-1 at FOX Bet?
"Absolutely not," Besbris cracked.
Besbris is more of a day-to-day basketball bettor, and he doesn’t really dabble all that much with in-season future bets. There was, however, a bloated number he couldn’t resist whacking in early February.
"I bet the Celtics to win the Atlantic at 25-1 about three weeks ago," Besbris said. "They were five games back of the Sixers at the time and playing really good basketball, and nobody noticed it because it was mostly done with defense. James Harden acclimating to Philly definitely makes things more difficult down the stretch, but that 25-1 price is long gone."
If you still haven’t joined the futures party, you’re in luck.
Besbris envisions a rather wide-open Eastern Conference postseason that could realistically be won by five or six different teams. But when you look at the FOX Bet betting board, one of the Eastern powers is getting downright disrespected when it comes to the price.
"If I were to place a futures bet right now, it would be the Miami Heat at +475 to win East," Besbris opined. "They’re out in front of the conference and still not getting the attention they deserve. That’s a damn good basketball team with a great head coach, and they can play at any style.
"I would bet on the East future instead of the title because you stretch your money a little bit shorter, and you don’t need as many things to go your way. It also offers up some flexibility. The only fear is that they land the No. 1 seed and draw Brooklyn in the first round with Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and Ben Simmons all available. They could still beat those guys, though, with home court."
Our last talking point revolved around the ever-popular NBA MVP market, which currently has Sixers star center Joel Embiid favored at -150.
Embiid is averaging 30 points, 11 rebounds, four assists and two blocks on a Philadelphia team that looks destined for a top-three seed in the East. He’s arguably the biggest matchup nightmare in the game, and he certainly walks the walk and talks the talk on a true title contender.
After Embiid (-150), FOX Bet has Nikola Jokic +320, Giannis +500, Ja Morant +1300, DeMar DeRozan +1600 and Steph Curry +2000.
"At this point, you need something seismic to happen to shift away from Embiid winning it," Besbris said. "If I had a vote, I would give it to Jokic (+320 at FOX Bet). The rest of that Nuggets team is not great without Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. That team is 36-26 and could be 21-41 without Jokic. He’s been worth around 15 wins by himself.
"But it’s Embiid’s award to lose. Unless he gets hurt and misses the last 15 games or the Sixers go on an eight-game losing streak [with Embiid playing], I don’t know how it goes to anybody else.
"It doesn’t seem like there’s enough sand in the hourglass for any of the other contenders to catch up."
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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