NBA mock draft: Timberwolves need not overthink No. 1 pick
Now that the NBA draft lottery is settled, let's move on to our first mock draft. After all, June 25 will be here sooner than you think.
1. Minnesota: Jahlil Okafor, C, Duke (6-11, 270). There’s been a sea change in most mock drafts the past couple months. After a solid year of people talking up Okafor as the surefire No. 1 pick, conventional wisdom now has Kentucky’s Karl-Anthony Towns as the No. 1. Why the change? Towns showed his versatility during Kentucky’s Final Four run, while people have nitpicked Okafor’s defensive deficiencies. This is called overthinking things. Here’s what one college coach told me about Okafor: “Any team that doesn’t take Jah first will regret it, and their front office people will be fired soon.” I agree. In Okafor, you may be taking a gamble on his becoming a capable NBA defender, but you are getting as close to a sure thing of a low-post scorer as we’ve seen in a generation. I know the fit with Nikola Pekovic isn’t perfect, but Okafor has the possibility of becoming a transcendent NBA player. Don’t get too cute here.
2. L.A. Lakers: Karl-Anthony Towns, C, Kentucky (7-0, 250). In Towns, the Lakers can have a big, versatile piece to build around. He isn’t as polished as Okafor on offense, but Towns has more range -- something we didn’t get much of a chance to see in Kentucky coach John Calipari’s system. He’s also more polished on defense than Okafor and has the feel of someone who could develop into a 20-10 player in the NBA.
3. Philadelphia: Emmanuel Mudiay, PG, China (6-5,190). A college coach who knows Mudiay well told me he ought to be the No. 1 pick in the draft, a player who’ll develop into an elite point guard and an All-Star for years to come. Though I’m not going to put him above the two bigs, Mudiay -- who skipped college to play in China for one season -- has the potential to become a Jason Kidd- or John Wall-type player. He’s a big, strong, fast point guard with the ball on a string and incredible court vision. “He plays the game slow, like a player six years older than he is,” a source said. The one area in need of improvement is his jump shot.
4. New York: D’Angelo Russell, PG, Ohio State (6-5, 195). No player shot up draft boards as quickly as Russell this past college season. The original plan at Ohio State was for him to be a combo guard his freshman year and transition into a full-time point guard as a sophomore, but that plan was shot before Big Ten play even started as Russell’s mind-boggling bounce passes and keen touch from 3-point range made him a certain lottery pick. He’s a slasher and a shooter, a scorer and a distributor. His only weakness is a penchant for careless defense. One scout told me the Justise Winslow/James Harden comparison is off and that Russell is the most Harden-like player in this draft -- albeit a lesser scorer and a better passer.
5. Orlando: Justise Winslow, SF, Duke (6-6, 222). I’ll keep it simple: I love this kid. Even as a high schooler, you could tell he had the body, the skill and the basketball mentality of a grown-ass man. He can get to the rim and he can shoot the 3, but his best attribute might be his defensive versatility. The first five picks in this draft can all become franchise players, and I include Winslow in that list. It would not surprise me, when all is said and done, if he ends up as the best NBA player in this draft.
6. Sacramento: Willie Cauley-Stein, C, Kentucky (7-0, 242). This was the best defensive player in college basketball last season and will be a damn fun kid who some fan base is going to fall in love with. Yes, outside of dunking his offensive game is nothing to write home about, but it’s on defense where Cauley-Stein will matter most. He’s that rare 7-footer who can guard all five positions and could develop into a Joakim Noah-esque defensive presence.
7. Denver: Stanley Johnson, SF, Arizona (6-6, 242). Who is the best small forward in this draft? You could barely slide a piece of paper between Winslow and Johnson, they are so close. Johnson can do pretty much everything, but his biggest attribute in his physical strength. He’s a much-improved shooter, too.
8. Detroit: Kristaps Porzingis, PF, Latvia (7-0, 220). A 19-year-old 7-foot-1 athlete with a great shooting touch in today’s NBA? Yes, please. Porzingis pulled out of last year’s draft to spend one more season playing in Spain, and the gamble appears to have paid off, as he looks to be the first international player drafted. The Pistons could use a stretch four, and Porzingis is the most tantalizing option.
Frank Kaminsky was college basketball's best player last season, but how will that translate into the NBA game?
9. Charlotte: Frank Kaminsky, PF, Wisconsin (7-1, 230). No, his measurables at the NBA combine weren’t impressive, but what more does Frank the Tank need to show us at this point? Kaminsky was the best player in college basketball last season, and in an NBA that values floor spacing, there’s not a player in this draft who helps with that more than Kaminsky. Maybe he’s not an All-Star, but he’s a long-time NBA starter.
10. Miami: Mario Hezonja, SG, Croatia (6-8, 215). The Croatian wing can really shoot the ball, and he’s a phenomenal athlete to boot. Being a 6-foot-8 shooting guard ought to make some NBA teams drool.
11. Indiana: Jerian Grant, PG/SG, Notre Dame (6-4, 200). If Larry Bird is serious about the Pacers playing a faster tempo, the frenetic Grant could help. The son of former NBA player Harvey Grant, he is an athletic dynamo who usually was the most exciting player on the floor when he was in college. For a team that needs a versatile playmaker who can play point, Grant could be the perfect fit.
12. Utah: Sam Dekker, SF, Wisconsin (6-9, 220). No, Dekker is not always the 3-point shooter we saw during the NCAA tournament. But his penchant for hitting clutch 3s in March only helped his NBA draft stock, since his shot from deep was one of the question marks in his game. Although Dekker tended to occasionally drift at times in college, his athleticism and size ought to make him a good if not great NBA player.
13. Phoenix: Myles Turner, C, Texas (6-11, 240). For a team that needs frontcourt depth, the versatile Turner feels like the perfect gamble for the Suns. There have been questions about his running gait, but he said during the NBA combine that he’s been working on it with trainers. Turner is huge, he can make 3s, and he can block shots. If he lasts this long, he could end up as a steal.
14. Oklahoma City: Devin Booker, SG, Kentucky (6-6, 205). In an NBA Draft lacking in shooting guards, Booker might be the best of the bunch. As we saw at Kentucky, Booker is a stellar shooter. And as we saw at the NBA combine, he’s a stellar athlete, too, posting quickness measurements that surprised some. On top of that, Booker is a high-character kid who works his tail off.
15. Atlanta: Trey Lyles, PF, Kentucky (6-10, 240). Lyles played out of position as a small forward at Kentucky, but that might be something that could help his NBA stock. His best fit is at power forward, but he could play some three as well as some five in the NBA. Of the big men in this draft, Lyles might be the most versatile. He could go as high as mid-lottery.
16. Boston: Kevon Looney, PF, UCLA (6-9, 222). Looney’s length and rebounding and defensive prowess indicate he could be a great role player in the NBA. But that projection discounts his touch from 3-point range. Looney shot 41.5 percent from there his one season at UCLA, which is the X-factor in his game that could vault him into the lottery.
17. Milwaukee: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, SF, Arizona (6-7, 210). Hollis-Jefferson may be the best and most versatile defender in this draft and is a reliable jump shot away from being a top-five pick. That jump shot, it should be pointed out, is not actually broken, it just needs help. And he’s a standout athlete, too. Think of Hollis-Jefferson as Kawhi Leonard Light. His mentality at the combine, where he spoke of his greatest attribute being lockdown defense, helps his cause. Hollis-Jefferson could end up as one of the steals of this draft, depending how his offensive game develops.
18. Houston: Kelly Oubre, SF, Kansas (6-7, 205). I’ll admit: This could be way too low for Oubre. He entered the season with the potential to become a top-five pick. But the thing with Oubre was we always seemed to talk about his potential instead of his performance. At times -- especially early in the season with Kansas -- he looked lost on both offense and defense. That said, it’s hard to think of a better basketball body than Oubre’s. He has the look of a stud basketball player and could develop into one -- if a team is willing to take the risk.
19. Washington: Justin Anderson, SF, Virginia (6-6, 230). Anderson was the anchor for one of the nation’s best defensive teams, and his defensive versatility will be the reason he gets drafted in the first round. But the fact he can really make 3-pointers -- 45.2 percent last season -- could help him become a 3-and-D type of player at the next level.
20. Toronto: Bobby Portis, PF, Arkansas (6-11, 245). Portis has a weird jump shot -- I swear he doesn’t even jump when he shoots -- but he is an impressive physical specimen on offense and defense. He was one of the hardest-working players in college basketball last season.
21. Dallas: Robert Upshaw, C, Washington (7-0, 260). A gamble? Absolutely. A huge one, in fact. Upshaw has been kicked out of two college basketball programs (Fresno State and Washington). But a gamble with huge upside? Absolutely. Upshaw was the best shot blocker in college basketball last season until he was kicked off his team. Nevertheless, I was impressed with Upshaw during NBA combine interviews. He put all the blame on himself and said he has been getting help with some of the nation’s best drug and alcohol counselors. If you buy his redemption story -- and I think I do -- he could be a steal.
Teams looking for a leader might want to draft Tyus Jones even higher than this.
22. Chicago: Tyus Jones, PG, Duke (6-1,185). All season, I called him “Stones” Jones because he always seemed to take -- and make -- the big shots. The dude is afraid of nothing. But clutch shooting isn’t even his calling card. He’s simply the smartest player on the floor, a player with Chris Paul-like instincts. If a team wants a leader and a quarterback, taking Jones five or 10 picks earlier wouldn’t be a bad call.
23. Portland: Montrezl Harrell, PF, Louisville (6-8, 255). Is he undersized for his position? Yes. Will he ever become a star? No. But anyone who watched what Harrell did in his three seasons playing for Rick Pitino can’t deny his motor, his work ethic or his ability to take coaching. Harrell will be a solid contributor for someone.
24. Cleveland: J.P. Tokoto, SG, North Carolina (6-6, 195). Is this too high for Tokoto? Probably. But he may be the best athlete in this draft. Even though his basketball skills are lacking at this point, he has shown improvement. At the NBA combine, he raised eyebrows with an improved jumper. Add in steady defense and explosive hops and Tokoto screams potential.
Will R.J. Hunter's one shining moment extend into his professional career?
25. Memphis: R.J. Hunter, SG, Georgia State (6-6, 185). For a team in dire need of a shooter, there’s no better option in this draft than the kid who brought us the most exciting Cinderella moment in the most recent NCAA tournament. The Grizzlies can only hope he lasts this long. Yes, Hunter made only 30.5 percent of his 3s last season -- but that’s because teams frequently double-teamed him. Being a coach’s kid with a personality that pops ought to only help Hunter’s draft prospects.
26. San Antonio: Cameron Payne, PG, Murray State (6-2, 185). Payne could go as high as the lottery, but I won’t be sold on him until he fills out his too-skinny body. He’s a fantastic passer who can shoot, too, which feels like a great fit for the Spurs formula as Tony Parker continues to battle Father Time.
27. L.A. Lakers: Tyler Harvey, SG, Eastern Washington (6-4, 180). One scout told me comparing Harvey, a hot-shooting mid-major guard, to Steph Curry is not ridiculous. I agree. He shoots a lot, and he sometimes puts up silly shots, but he was one of the best shooters in all of college basketball, a true diamond in the rough. Sources say Harvey has killed it during the interview process. No surprise from this confident but mild-mannered kid.
28. Boston: Christian Wood, PF, UNLV (6-10, 215). Wood will be a project but one with high upside, especially if he’s able to put some muscle onto a fantastic NBA frame. He’s great close to the rim and surprisingly good from 3-point range, too. Right now, though, he’s all potential -- as much as any player who could be available at this point.
29. Brooklyn: Delon Wright, PG, Utah (6-5, 180). He’s a reliable jumper away from being a top-10 pick. Wright was the best two-way player in college basketball last season, a lockdown perimeter defender and a Rajon Rondo-like point guard on offense. An advanced stats website I love, ValueAddBasketball.com, said Wright had more impact on his team than any player in college basketball last season.
30. Golden State: Terry Rozier, PG, Louisville (6-2, 190). Rozier was one of the players who most helped his stock during the 5-on-5 portion of the NBA combine. With good size, a good shot and great athleticism, he could become a starting NBA point guard at some point.
Eight second-round sleepers: Rakeem Christmas, F/C Syracuse; Richaun Holmes, PF, Bowling Green; Dakari Johnson, C, Kentucky; Norman Powell, SG, UCLA; Jarell Martin, PF, LSU; Pat Connaughton, SG, Notre Dame; Chris Walker, PF, Florida; T.J. McConnell, PG, Arizona.