NBA Mock Draft: Jabari Smith to Orlando Magic at No. 1
By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
The Orlando Magic won the NBA Draft lottery and now have their choice of one of the big three prospects: Jabari Smith, Chet Holmgren and Paolo Banchero.
Expect smokescreens galore from the Magic, given that the world knows that OKC covets the 7-foot Holmgren. Might we see a trade like in 2017, when Boston knew it wanted Jayson Tatum, so it traded from No. 1 to 3 to acquire an additional pick?
With a month to go, here’s how I see the draft shaking out:
1. Orlando Magic: Jabari Smith, F, Auburn
He’s not the player ready to help you the most now, but in five years, the 6-foot-10 Smith could be putting up Chris Bosh numbers in Orlando. The Magic front office under John Hammond has prioritized length in recent years (Jalen Suggs, Mo Bamba, Jonathan Isaac).
2. Oklahoma City Thunder: Chet Holmgren, C, Gonzaga
There’s a scenario in which he tumbles down the board a bit, but before you dismiss the 7-foot, 190-pound Holmgren, just know he’s going to reshape his body within two years and, if healthy, be what Kristaps Porzingis was on track to become.
3. Houston Rockets: Paolo Banchero, F, Duke
Banchero is the most NBA-ready player in the draft, and if the Rockets can get some maturity in the locker room, a front court of Banchero and Christian Wood is switchable and spaces the floor very well.
4. Sacramento Kings: Keegan Murray, F, Iowa
If the Kings play the offseason right, there’s a chance that they snap the NBA’s longest playoff drought and make the play-in tournament. At 6-foot-8, Murray has the potential to be in the mold of Mikal Bridges.
5. Detroit Pistons: Bennedict Mathurin, G/F, Arizona
I’m betting on Cade Cunningham making the leap at point guard if you surround him with shooters, and Mathurin (37% last season) is the guy you want here, a wing who can thrive without the ball in his hands.
6. Indiana Pacers: Jaden Ivey, G, Purdue
Perfect regional fit, as Ivey is from the state and was a Big Ten star. The Pacers just need to trade Malcolm Brogdon, which shouldn’t be a major problem.
7. Portland Blazers: Mark Williams, C, Duke
The Blazers will be losing Jusuf Nurkic in free agency, and if you’ve watched any of these NBA playoffs, you know the value of the bouncy, rim-running Williams, who can defend on the perimeter. His 7-foot-7 wingspan will surely be tops in this draft.
8. New Orleans Pelicans: Tari Eason, F, LSU
The advanced defensive stats love Eason, who is switchy enough to play both forward positions. As long as he checks out off the court, expect Eason to rise during the process. He would fit neatly next to Zion Williamson.
9. San Antonio Spurs: AJ Griffin, F, Duke
Griffin turns 19 in August, his dad played in the NBA, and as a 44% 3-point shooter, he will fit perfectly into this offense. But his injury history could cause him to slide out of the top 10.
10. Washington Wizards: Shaedon Sharpe, SG, Kentucky
Sharpe is the mystery man of the draft who two years ago went from unranked to the top player in the Class of 2022. The 6-foot-6 Sharpe allegedly dominated Kentucky practices, but he was ineligible to play, so all we have to go on are high school stats.
11. New York Knicks: Jalen Duren, C, Memphis
He’s the youngest player in this draft class, and if the Knicks don’t trade for DeAndre Ayton, Duren makes a ton of sense in the post.
12. Oklahoma City Thunder: Ousmane Dieng, F, New Zealand Breakers
The Thunder hit a home run with their last pick from the NBL, Josh Giddy, and they’re hoping for the same with the 6-foot-10 Dieng, who could be in play for the Knicks at 11.
13. Charlotte Hornets: Ochai Agbaji, F, Kansas
I had the Hornets selecting Mark Williams in my previous mock draft, but it’s unlikely that he falls this far. They’ll be in the mix to trade for a rim-runner center this summer, perhaps with Gordon Hayward as bait. Agbaji adds perimeter defense, something the Hornets badly lack.
14. Cleveland Cavaliers: Johnny Davis, G, Wisconsin
The Cavs' biggest weakness was on the wing, where Isaac Okoro and Cedi Osman lack the offensive punch to take a load off Collin Sexton.
15. Charlotte Hornets: Jeremy Sochan, F, Baylor
The Hornets would love a great interior defender, but they’ll have to settle for a terrific wing who maybe can play some small-ball 4 or 5.
16. Atlanta Hawks: Dyson Daniels, G League Ignite
The Rajon Rondo experiment last season was a disaster, and now Lou Williams might be gone. Daniels provides depth behind Trae Young and maybe even plays with him some due to his stellar defensive work.
17. Houston Rockets: TyTy Washington, PG, Kentucky
As talented as Kevin Porter is, he’s also a question off the court, and landing a stable point guard (such as Washington) should be a priority for Houston.
18. Chicago Bulls: Malaki Branham, G, Ohio State
Best on the board for the Bulls, who go into the offseason with questions about Lonzo Ball (knee) and Zach LaVine (does he want out?).
19. Minnesota Timberwolves: Jaden Hardy, G, G-League
The Timberwolves' playoff run was foiled by fourth-quarter collapses, which is not something they can fix in the draft. But Hardy provides electric offense, which was lost when they had to bench D’Angelo Russell late.
20. San Antonio Spurs: Nikola Jovic, F, Serbia
In the NFL, the Patriots and Belichick trade down. In the NBA, the Spurs and Popovich historically have drafted and stashed Europeans. That has tailed off in recent years (once in the past six drafts), but expect to see that in June with San Antonio's three first-round picks.
21. Denver Nuggets: Marjon Beauchamp, G, G League Ignite
Nearly 22, Beauchamp is more ready to help a contender on the wing now, given his length (7-foot-1 wingspan) and skill set.
22. Memphis Grizzlies: Kennedy Chandler, G, Tennessee
The Grizzlies might have problems paying Tyus Jones, given how strong of a postseason he had. Chandler is an ultra-quick point guard who could be forced into action if Ja Morant keeps getting injured.
23. Brooklyn Nets: Trevor Keels, G, Duke
Still only 18, Keels is an explosive, 6-foot-4 guard who would have put up much bigger numbers (11.5 PPG in 30 MPG) had he not gone to Duke.
24. Milwaukee Bucks: Kendall Brown, F, Baylor
The Bucks might look to tweak their front court going forward, as Brook Lopez has one year left on his deal. Can Brown defend the way Bobby Portis does? Because Portis is going to get expensive in a year, and Serge Ibaka gave Milwaukee nothing.
25. San Antonio Spurs: Caleb Houstan, F, Michigan
One of the top high school players in America didn’t have the awesome season many expected, but he’s one of five or six players in the first round who are about 6-foot-8 and can toggle between the 3 and 4, and he shot 35% on 3-pointers.
26. Dallas Mavericks: Dalen Terry, G, Arizona
There's a lot of uncertainty for the Mavs with Jalen Brunson expecting to get paid and lots of money committed to guards Spencer Dinwiddie and Tim Hardaway Jr. But Terry looks the part of a switchy wing who can defend multiple positions in the playoffs.
27. Miami Heat: EJ Liddell, F, Ohio State
Liddell feels like a throwback, back-to-the-basket big who could slide right into the Heat’s culture and provide depth behind Bam Adebayo.
28. Golden State Warriors: Blake Wesley, G, Notre Dame
Wesley needs to improve as a shooter (30% on 3-pointers) to cement his first-round status, but he is a terrific shot-creator at 6-foot-5.
29. Memphis Grizzlies: Bryce McGowens, G, Nebraska
The 6-foot-7 McGowens scored 65 points in a high school game, then committed to Florida State before backing out and landing with Nebraska.
30. Oklahoma City Thunder: Patrick Baldwin, F, Milwaukee
Only 19, Baldwin had an injury-plagued freshman year, but his length, talent and high IQ still have him hovering in the back of the first round.
Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.