NBA Mock Draft 1.0: No certainties outside of Victor Wembanyama

By John Fanta
Published

With two months to go until the 2023 NBA Draft, there's a high level of unknowns with this class — and that's fun!

What's for certain? Victor Wembanyama, the 7-foot-4 Frenchman who is regarded as one of the most talented, unusual prospects entering the draft in its history, is going to land at the No. 1 spot. The draft lottery on May 16 will be one of the most highly anticipated in recent memory because it's the Wemby Sweepstakes. Will it be the Pistons, Rockets, Spurs or perhaps a surprise team? The ping-pong balls mean even more this year. 

Beyond Wembanyama, there's the growing debate of who will go No. 2 overall between 19-year-old guard Scoot Henderson (G League Ignite) or the top prospect out of the college game, 20-year-old wing Brandon Miller (Alabama).

As the first round deepens, there's a level of mystery associated with this class because of its collective youth. It's hard to get a gauge on the prospects out of college similar to how difficult it was to figure out college basketball in general — just look at Florida Atlantic, San Diego State, Miami and UConn making up the Final Four. 

What that means is whether you're sitting at 16th in the first round or 26th, there could be opportunities for long-term value selections in the back half of this draft just by nature of the way the class is constructed. That elevates the importance of the mid-May combine in Chicago and the evaluation window in general. 

Without further ado, here's the FOX Sports NBA Mock Draft 1.0, with the pre-lottery draft order according to records at the end of the season.

['Early-Entry' NBA Draft tracker: Which underclassmen are going pro?]

1. Detroit Pistons: Victor Wembanyama (7-foot-4 center, Metropolitans 92)

Which would you prefer: A nearly 8-foot wingspan or the ability to handle the ball effectively at the height of 7-foot-4? Wembanyama doesn't have to choose because he checks both of those boxes and so much more. Averaging 21.4 points and 9.9 rebounds for French club Metropolitans 92 this year, Wembanyama has lifted his team into championship contention. His length gives him a superb ability at impacting the game defensively, and the scoring prowess at his size is special.

Detroit might have depth inside with Jalen Duren, Marvin Bagley III and James Wiseman, but that's not going to stop them from taking Wembanyama if they are in the position at the top spot. He could be a generational player in The Association.

2. Houston Rockets: Brandon Miller (6-foot-9 wing, Alabama)

Miller fits the modern day NBA in the best way beyond Wembanyama and that’s why he’s No. 2 on my board. The SEC player of the year and All-American showed this past season that he can impact the game in a variety of ways, averaging 18.8 points and 8.2 rebounds per game while tallying three or more assists in 16 contests to lead Alabama to the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament. Despite shooting the ball poorly from the perimeter late in the year (18-for-72 in final nine games), Miller was still close to being a 40% 3-point shooter on the year. 

There is the off-court complication to Miller’s story, as court testimony stated that he brought the gun to then-teammate Darius Miles that led to the January killing of Jamea Johnae Harris. Miller was never charged, nor was he suspended by Alabama for his actions, but the story that came out in late February brings natural questions. On the court, Miller is capable of being the centerpiece talent for an organization and his draft stock has thus far been unaffected by all accounts, but this issue will continue to hover over him.

3. San Antonio Spurs: Scoot Henderson (6-foot-2 guard, G League Ignite) 

Henderson's quickness provides for much-watch plays. The handle, explosiveness and swagger that he plays with give him such high upside at the age of only 19. Even though Henderson's G League season featured its ups and downs, there's still so much to like about this kid because he is wired to score the basketball at a high level. By being so quick, Henderson as a defender carries intrigue, as well.

The big question: Will the perimeter game get better at the next level? In 19 games this year with Ignite, Henderson shot 14-for-51 from 3 (28%). If that comes along with his playmaking ability, look out. It would be fascinating to see what Gregg Popovich could do for him.

4. Charlotte Hornets: Amen Thompson (6-foot-7 guard, Overtime Elite)

Regarded by NBA teams as the best athlete in the draft class by a wide margin, Thompson is a long and athletic guard who will make an immediate impact in transition at the NBA level. Seriously, Thompson is a jet on the break, and he could cause nightmares alongside a dynamic talent like LaMelo Ball in Charlotte.

There's a risk involved with this pick because Thompson's jumper and halfcourt skillset carry more questions than answers at the moment but his ability to read the floor at his size is too strong to pass on. To me, Thompson at No. 4 is a reflection of this draft class too. You can't be faulted for taking a chance on someone. 

5. Portland Trail Blazers: Cam Whitmore (6-foot-7 guard, Villanova) 

Villanova's first one-and-done prospect since Tim Thomas in 1997, Whitmore won Big East Freshman of the Year after averaging 12.5 points per game on 48% from the floor. It was a freshman season that featured some adversity and a thumb injury at the beginning of the year, but eight performances of 17-plus points – including a 26-point outing against Xavier – showcased his skillset as a physical shot creator. The 18-year-old has a physical frame that gives him the ability to attack the rim at a high level and initiate contact.

The two key questions for Whitmore at the next level: Will he become a better playmaker and passer for others? How will the transition go for him defensively after a college season of ups and downs on that end? The bucket-getting ability, physical frame and youth are what place him in my top five. 

6. Orlando Magic: Anthony Black (6-foot-7 point guard, Arkansas)

He's a talented playmaker and a switchable, willing defender who impacted winning in his one season with the Razorbacks. At the age of 19, Black also carries high upside and if the perimeter game can come along, he will possess the entire arsenal to help a team. His feel for the game is beyond his years, averaging 12.8 points, 5.1 rebounds and 3.9 assists per game this past year. The Magic would be getting a guy who fits the positional value and feel of the NBA level.

7. Indiana Pacers: Jarace Walker (6-foot-8 forward, Houston)

The 19-year-old out of Houston showed in a season with the Cougars that he was the perfect one-and-done talent for Kelvin Sampson. Why? At 240 pounds, he imposed his physical presence on opposing teams at a high level, showing that he's an NBA-ready defender. Walker's motor will never come into question.

The concern is that opposing defenses could play off him because his shot is a weak link at the moment. It's on an NBA organization to work through the mechanics of it with him. But for Indiana, getting a forward that defends at a high level fits their needs alongside Myles Turner in the frontcourt.

8. Washington Wizards: Ausar Thompson (6-foot-6 wing, Overtime Elite)

The twin brother of Amen, Ausar has an NBA-ready skillset as a distributor and defender to jump right into the league and be a role player. The question, like with so many prospects, is simple: Will the jumper evolve so that he can stay on the floor at the wing spot? There's no question of Ausar's control and maturity playing the game. In fact, one scout told me that his basketball-IQ is extremely high for his age. He can provide depth to the Wizards and carries upside if the offense keeps climbing.

9. Utah Jazz: Gradey Dick (6-foot-8 wing, Kansas)

There may not be a better player fit to an organization in the lottery than this one. Watching Gradey Dick in a Kansas uniform this past year, it was hard to believe that he was only 19. The 6-foot-8 Jayhawks wing was the perfect fit in Bill Self's system and connected on 40% of his 3-point attempts. He has a great feel for the game that allows for him to be more than a shooter as well. Dick's ability to move off the ball for catch-and-shoot opportunities would be perfect in the Jazz system.

10. Dallas Mavericks: Taylor Hendricks (6-foot-9 forward, UCF)

The biggest riser in this 2023 draft class, Hendricks could serve as a nice complement to Luka Doncic if all goes as planned for the Mavs. The 19-year-old from Fort Lauderdale has gone from a guy off the map in this class at this time a year ago to being a surefire lottery selection in my opinion.

At 6-foot-9, Hendricks can impact the game defensively as a switchable piece, and he shot nearly 40% from 3 this past year at UCF, averaging 15.1 points and 7.0 rebounds per game on 48% from the floor. Hendricks' rise is one of the coolest stories in the class, and he could fit just about any team. Dallas feels like one of the best potential suitors.

11. Orlando Magic (via Bulls): Jalen Hood-Schifino (6-foot-6 guard, Indiana) 

The 6-foot-6 Hoosiers product showcases a well-rounded offensive ability in his one season in Bloomington, scoring at least 18 points in eight games, highlighted by a 35-point master class in a primetime road win over Purdue in February. At 19, Hood-Schifino has the upside to suggest he's deserving of a lottery slot in this class, presenting the traits that many NBA teams look for in guard play.

What stands out about Hood-Schifino is how willing of a defender he is at his age. The Big Ten Freshman of the Year showcased his ability to impact the game for others as well, averaging nearly four assists per game to go along with his 14 points on average. This is an upside pick, and would be a selection of someone who went through the Big Ten grinder and succeeded during it. 

12. Oklahoma City Thunder: Jordan Hawkins (6-foot-5 guard, Connecticut) 

A national champion at UConn, Hawkins is the best pure 3-point shooter in this draft class and an already high draft stock only went one direction on the Huskies' dominant run in March Madness. He has the potential to be a microwave from downtown any time he steps on the floor and can totally change the complexion of a game, needing no space to get his shot off. Shooting 21-for-42 on Connecticut's NCAA Tournament title run, Hawkins showcased his ability to do more than just hit perimeter shots.

For an Oklahoma City team that has Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey putting pressure on defenses by attacking the rim, having the presence of Hawkins to drill those catch-and-shoot looks feels like a no-brainer if he's still around at No. 12. 

13. Toronto Raptors: Keyonte George (6-foot-4 guard, Baylor)

The Raptors are in great need of shotmaking and the Baylor product could serve as a strong selection at No. 13 that provides major upside. With Toronto potentially saying goodbye to unrestricted free agent Fred VanVleet, George could serve as a logical option to fill that void if things pan out and the Raptors get his shot selection in a better place. He averaged 15.3 points, 4.3 rebounds and 2.8 assists per game this year for Scott Drew but did run into turnover issues.

Can Toronto get him playing under control? He certainly has the room and time to grow at just 19 years. One added positive: George comes from a coach and program that forced him to get better as a defender. 

14. New Orleans Pelicans : Nick Smith Jr. (6-foot-5 guard, Arkansas)

The final pick of the lottery represents this class in a lot of ways. I think New Orleans or a team right around them will take the shot on Smith, who was the No. 1 ranked recruit by 247 Sports in the 2022 class — a knee injury sidelined the Razorbacks freshman phenom from ever finding rhythm at the college level.

Smith has something to prove in the evaluation period, but his offensive skill set and shotmaking ability give him plenty of intrigue. There's a high degree of range with where Smith could get selected, hence why he rounds out the lottery.

15. Atlanta Hawks: Cason Wallace (6-foot-4 guard, Kentucky) 

There may be a broad range of where Wallace could end up but here's what we do know: His commitment and intensity on the defensive end of the floor at the age of 19 is way beyond his years, and he has an offensive game that carries some burst. There are some things to get figured out in the scoring column, but he bothers people in the way that he guards and that helped the Wildcats get on track.

Wallace is a winning player. Could he be the next Kentucky guard to get rolling in the NBA like we've seen in the playoffs? Certainly. 

16. Utah Jazz (via Timberwolves): Kris Murray (6-foot-8 forward, Iowa)

The All-Big Ten First Team selection took the torch from his twin brother, Keegan, and averaged over 20 points per game on 48% from the floor. His size, offensive skill set and maturity make him a desirable top-20 prospect because he fits the modern day NBA. 

17. Los Angeles Lakers: Dereck Lively II (7-foot-1 center, Duke) 

With a 7-foot-6 wingspan, Lively's explosiveness on the defensive end of the floor should translate right to the NBA. He was a game-changer for Duke's rim protection and kept getting better as the year went on. The offense is a bit more of a project but there's so much upside for those teams seeking a post option.

18. Miami Heat: Brice Sensabaugh (6-foot-6 guard, Ohio State)

His offensive game was tremendous in one season in Columbus, but the defensive concerns are real. If Miami is looking for a shot maker on the wing, though, the 19-year-old checks every box and may only be scratching the surface. 

19. Golden State Warriors: Leonard Miller (6-foot-10 forward, G League Ignite)

This pick would follow Golden State's past strategy of finding the potential next star that needs some time to figure several parts of their game out but presents enough positives to potentially turn into a player nobody could have seen coming. Miller can play the wing at his size and he was one of the G League's best rebounders late in the season. His athleticism allows him to run the floor really well. The question areas: perimeter shooting and defense. 

20. Houston Rockets (via Clippers): Jett Howard (6-foot-8 guard, Michigan)

The Rockets need perimeter help in a major way. Howard can supply that and would be a smart, valuable selection in this spot. He's only 19 as well, so there's upside with his length. 

21. Brooklyn Nets (via Suns): Kobe Bufkin (6-foot-4 guard, Michigan)

With seven 20-plus point games this past season including averaging over 20 in the final five contests of the season, he blossomed into a first-round prospect that can flat-out score it.

22. Brooklyn Nets: Dariq Whitehead (6-foot-7 wing, Duke)

While injuries led to an up-and-down season with the Blue Devils, Whitehead was still a dynamic talent when he did get on the floor and could change the game with his shot-making (43% from 3). An ACC Tournament semifinal performance of 16 points in 19 minutes versus Miami was a highlight. He can give Brooklyn another intriguing wing.

23. Portland Trail Blazers (via Knicks): Noah Clowney (6-foot-10 forward, Alabama)

He's one of the youngest players in the draft class and his defensive ability was invaluable for the Crimson Tide. If Clowney even gets to this point in the draft, expect Portland to pursue him. 

24. Sacramento Kings: Rayan Rupert (6-foot-7 wing, New Zealand Breakers)

He's a high-level defender with great feel, tons of athleticism, but his shot and playmaking ability on the offensive end will have him spending time in the G League. At 19, there's plenty of upside but he has to be a part of an organization that's okay with being patient. Still, his ability to disrupt the opposition defensively is so far beyond his years. 

25. Memphis Grizzlies: Gregory "G.G." Jackson (6-foot-9 forward, South Carolina)

Jackson should go somewhere in the 20s and with the run Sacramento is on right now, the organization is in position to take a shot on someone they want to develop. Jackson needs time to mature and become a better playmaker and teammate. Effort came into question in his year in college. 

26. Indiana Pacers (via Cavs): Jalen Wilson (6-foot-8 forward, Kansas) 

Averaging over 20 points and 8 rebounds per game in the best conference in college basketball while leading the defending national champions seems pretty good, right? In my opinion, someone should and will take a flier on Wilson late in the first round. He may be a four-year college player, but he's gotten better every season. 

27. Charlotte Hornets (via Nuggets): Colby Jones (6-foot-6 wing, Xavier) 

He's a steady wing that elevated his perimeter shooting game and also has the ability to handle the ball and make plays for others. The Xavier product would be a solid rotation piece for a team because he embraces his role and helps winning, and he's got a great demeanor.

28. Utah Jazz (via Sixers): Terquavion Smith (6-foot-4 guard, NC State) 

The 20-year-old guard was a big-time bucket-getter in the ACC, going for 30-plus points in two of his final three college games. With his athletic ability and offensive prowess, he could be worth a first-round slot. 

29. Indiana Pacers (via Celtics): Jaime Jaquez (6-foot-7 wing, UCLA)

He is a winner in every sense of that term. While being another four-year college player may turn some off, Jaquez turned around the Bruins program and plays with such a high intensity, yet under control. He averaged 17.8 points per game this past year to go with 8.2 rebounds advancing to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament for a third consecutive year. Winning matters. Jaquez has done plenty of it. 

30. Los Angeles Clippers (via Bucks): Trayce Jackson-Davis (6-foot-9 forward, Indiana)

Dominating his final year at Indiana with 20.9 points, 10.8 rebounds and 4.0 assists per game on 58% from the floor, Jackson-Davis can enter into an NBA organization and serve as a frontcourt piece off the bench right away. He has great maturity, and the intensity that he plays with will never come into question. LA needs guys who can come right in and help them, especially with the restrictions added into the new CBA when it comes to roster additions.

John Fanta is a national college basketball broadcaster and writer for FOX Sports. He covers the sport in a variety of capacities, from calling games on FS1 to serving as lead host on the BIG EAST Digital Network to providing commentary on The Field of 68 Media Network. Follow him on Twitter @John_Fanta.

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