NBA DFS FanDuel - Lessons Learned from Last Week

Oct 19, 2016; Salt Lake City, UT, USA; Portland Trail Blazers forward Al-Farouq Aminu (8) defends against the shot of Utah Jazz forward Joe Johnson (6) during the first half at Vivint Smart Home Arena. Mandatory Credit: Russ Isabella-USA TODAY Sports NBA DFS

Looking back at last week in NBA DFS we can find some interesting trends to help us in building out our rosters in the coming days!

NBA DFS – Portland is missing Al-Farouq Aminu… badly.

Right now without Al-Farouq Aminu, Portland is leaving the gate open for opposing NBA DFS players to feast, specifically against Forward/Center combos. This week the Blazers gave up the hottest start in NBA history to Kevin Love who had 34 points and went 8-10 from deep in the first quarter, and in the same game gave away 31 points, 13 assists, and 10 rebounds to LeBron James. The night before at New York, Kristaps Porzingis put up 31 points and 9 rebounds.

Anthony Davis found himself in an exploited match-up Friday night when the Blazers took on New Orleans at home, going off for 31 points, 13 rebounds and 5 blocks. Even Clint Capela registered a cool 21 points and 9 rebounds last night when they faced the Rockets at home.

A very dim silver lining would have to be that Moe Harkless has seen a slight spike in his production with Aminu out, averaging 12.7 points and 6.5 rebounds since Aminu’s last game at the Clippers, compared to 12 points and 4 rebounds with him present.

Mason Plumlee‘s stats have also increased from 9.1 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 4 assists with Aminu, to 9.7 points 8.1 rebounds, and 5.3 assists without. So if you happen to have been hitting Harkless and Plumlee consistently with Aminu out, be mindful of their numbers dipping a bit when he returns.

Love, Davis, and Porzingis are all Power Forwards with some Range, so players who fit that profile, playing a significant role in their team’s offense would be smart plays against the Blazers at least until Portland figures something out defensively down low with what they have, or Aminu returns. Until then, don’t expect the bleeding to stop for Portland with Ed Davis and Mason Plumlee standing at the gate.

Nov 27, 2016; Orlando, FL, USA; Orlando Magic guard Evan Fournier (10) drives past Milwaukee Bucks guard Jason Terry (3) in the second half at Amway Center. The Milwaukee Bucks defeated the Orlando Magic 104-96. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports

NBA DFS – Moderately priced guards went crazy

Some of the lines put together this week by guards in the $5-6k range have been phenomenal. Tim Frazier put up a confounding 53 (23p, 14a, 5r, 3s, 1to) FDP line on a $5,400 bill against the league leading Atlanta Hawks in defensive efficiency. Oh yeah, and it was Jrue Holiday‘s first game back.

In his next 2 games against Portland and Minnesota though, he averaged 11 points, 7.5 assists, 2.5 rebounds, and 4.5 turnovers. This is what you can realistically expect from him going forward, so I wouldn’t go reaching for him because Holiday will become more and more implemented into the Pelicans offense at point guard, putting a hard cap on Frazier’s fantasy value. Unless they decide to log Holiday heavy minutes at shooting guard and start Frazier at point, don’t expect his output to look like his averages this season without Jrue Holiday.

Evan Fournier for $5,400 had an outstanding game last night against Milwaukee at home with 27 points, 7 assists, and 6 rebounds for 47.7 FDP in 38 minutes after an 11 point, 4 assist, 2 rebound clunker v. Washington.

I’m going to go ahead and interpret his line as more of an outlier than the new norm for Fournier, because not only did Jeff Green not play, but Frank Vogel went with some weird rotations starting DJ Augustin and Bismack Biyombo over their usual starters Elfrid Payton and Nikola Vucevic. Fournier’s contribution in utility stats are still encouraging and indicative of his ability to fill in when given an opportunity.

Derrick Rose for $5,800 put together a 46.6 FDP line of 18 points, 8 assists, and 8 rebounds against Charlotte on the road having just played them the night before at home, where he only chipped in 16 points, 5 assists, and 3 rebounds. It would seem that Rose is trending upward, but with so many mouths to feed on the Knicks I’m still a little guarded about allotting a PG slot to him especially on nights with large slates.

One of the more frustrating guards in the $5k-6k range would have to be Ish Smith who is a night and day player this year from last. For a mere $5,200 against OKC Friday night, Smith was only able to contribute 14 points, 3 assists, and a rebound for 18.7 FDP.

That line for Smith is baffling if you’ll remember when Elfrid Payton was able to put together a 23 point, 9 assist, and 7 rebound line for 50.9 FDP on a $5,400 bill. Smith and Payton’s contrasting lines should be a good reminder to always take Position v. position match ups with a grain of salt.

Per 36 Minutes Table
Season	Tm	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PTS
2015-16	NOP	5.4	9.0	1.4	0.4	2.6	13.9
2015-16	PHI	4.7	7.7	1.4	0.4	2.9	16.3
2016-17	DET	3.3	7.5	1.4	0.4	2.0	12.4

Smith’s per 36 minute lines are nothing compared to what they were last year when he was playing much more significant roles in both Philadelphia and New Orleans. I would like to see him be more aggressive and run more pick-and-roll type plays with Andre Drummond, similar to Reggie Jackson, but so far he has under achieved compared to his numbers from last year. Detroit just needs to get Reggie back, and fast.

Nov 25, 2016; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves center Karl-Anthony Towns (32) celebrates with teammates after defeating the Phoenix Suns at Talking Stick Resort Arena. The Timberwolves defeated the Suns 98-85. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

NBA DFS – Keep your eyes on Karl-Anthony Towns

The hottest sophomore in the league Karl-Anthony Towns salary went up $1,000 in two days. Last Monday v. Boston for $8,000 he went off for 27 points, 18 rebounds, 3 assists, and 2 blocks with 1 turnover in 38 minutes adding up to 56.1 FDP. His next game at New Orleans his price spiked to $8,700, then to $9,000 at Phoenix where he subsequently had 40 FDP in 35 minutes.

I’ve been wary of Karl-Anthony Towns potential to demolish his Value Reflecting Salary all season after his monster rookie year. His price tag in the lower $8,000’s has been terrifying to bet against because I realistically think he’s a $9,200-$9,600 player. He’s capable of some serious heat when the match-up down low is good and Minnesota’s other two leading scorers Andrew Wiggins and Zach LaVine are bogged down in a bad match-up.

This week KAT opens at $8,600 against Utah which isn’t irresistible, but KAT also plays New York twice, and Charlotte on the road. The Knicks and Hornets should be competitive enough match-ups for him to realize his potential to be one of the most productive centers in the league, and speaking of both of those teams, Carmelo Anthony had his best game of the season against the Hornets at home with 35 points, 14 rebounds, and 5 assists. So don’t be surprised to see KAT put up something similar to that when he faces Charlotte on Saturday. Hopefully his salary stays under $9k by that time.

I think his production is trending upward, and I wouldn’t be surprised for this to be a big week for him. His salary as it stands is modest for how good a player he is. Just ask yourself if he’s the best play for your one center slot.

Nov 26, 2016; Oklahoma City, OK, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook (0) reacts after a play against the Detroit Pistons during the fourth quarter at Chesapeake Energy Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports

NBA DFS – Russell Westbrook: Still not Human

There was actually a debate in fantasy circles about who was going to be the fantasy MVP this season between Westbrook and James Harden, and I just thought it was laughable. Harden’s numbers have been absolutely fantastic with season averages of 28.9 points, 12.2 assists and 7.4 rebounds, and he’s the clear fantasy runner-up on the season, but when you compare them to Westbrook, you see just how special a player he is.