NBA All-Star Weekend: Predictions for slam dunk, 3-point contest, draft

By Melissa Rohlin
Published

NBA All-Star Weekend is upon us, and for the first time, the NBA All-Star draft will take place right before Sunday's game in Salt Lake City, Utah, as opposed to being taped weeks before the game. 

I love this idea. 

It's like elementary school PE when two kids would switch off picking their respective teams, and each person's pride or pain would play out in real time. Well, this is going to be an amped-up version of that with NBA-sized egos hanging in the balance.

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Los Angeles Lakers superstar LeBron James will be a team captain for his sixth year in a row, ever since the league moved away from the traditional East players vs. West players format. Milwaukee Bucks superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo has the honor for his third time after being a team captain in 2019 and 2020. Both players led their respective conferences in All-Star votes. 

James is always especially amusing in the role of GM.

One of the highlights from last year's draft was when he selected Fred VanVleet as his second-to-last pick, purposely forcing his opposing team captain, Kevin Durant, to choose between Rudy Gobert and James Harden, Durant's then-recently-departed teammate on the Brooklyn Nets. James cracked up as Durant picked Gobert, putting his clipboard in front of his face to shield his laughter.  

It should be fun to see moments like that play out in front of the players, no?!

Here are my predictions for the weekend, from the main event on Sunday and an action-packed All-Star Saturday Night, featuring three must-watch events.

ALL-STAR GAME DRAFT

Below is the updated player pool that James and Antetokounmpo will pick from. (Durant, Steph Curry and Zion Williamson were voted to start, but will miss the game because of injuries. They will be replaced by Joel Embiid, Lauri Markkanen and Ja Morant.)

Here's how I think the team captains will select their starters:

No. 1 pick, Team LeBron: Kyrie Irving

James made it clear that he wanted to reunite with Irving on the Lakers and acknowledged to ESPN that he was "disappointed" his former Cavs teammate was instead dealt to Dallas ahead of last week's trade deadline. So, here's his chance to play with him again ahead of Irving's free agency this summer. James' first two picks the last two All-Star Games were Antetokounmpo and Curry, both of whom are unavailable in this year's draft, and he's always quick with praise for Luka Dončić, but I'm betting James will cause a bit of a stir by selecting Irving when he plays GM, accomplishing something his actual team's GM wasn't able to do.

No. 1 pick, Team Giannis: Joel Embiid

Even though Embiid is tied with Luka Dončić as the league's leading scorer, averaging 33.2 points a game to go along with 10.1 rebounds, he wasn't initially selected to be a starter until he was tabbed by NBA commissioner Adam Silver to be Durant's injury replacement. (Durant, Antetokounmpo and Jayson Tatum were selected as the East's frontcourt starters.) I'm guessing that initial slight will quickly be overshadowed by the respect Embiid gets from his peers. Also, let's not forget that Embiid was also Antetokounmpo's first pick in the 2020 draft.

No. 2 pick, Team LeBron: Nikola Jokić

James' has long lamented that the Lakers don't have enough length, so here's to guessing he'll want to quickly pick up the 7-foot center, the league's reigning two-time MVP. 

No. 2 pick, Team Giannis: Luka Dončić

It's hard to imagine Luka falling this late in the draft and, honestly, he might be LeBron's first pick. But the juicier the storylines, the better around All-Star weekend. So let's say LeBron goes with Kyrie as his top pick and Luka – even though he's a top MVP contender this season – falls here to be snapped up by Giannis. 

No. 3 pick, Team LeBron: Ja Morant

I debated whether to put Tatum or Morant in this slot, but Morant won for two reasons. 1. Tatum is a Celtic, so he's inherently a naturally sworn enemy of the Lakers. And 2. How fun would it be to see James throw lobs to Morant?!

No. 3 pick, Team Giannis: Jayson Tatum

The Celtics (41-17) and Bucks (40-17) are the top two teams in the East and they could very well face each other in the Eastern Conference Finals. So, maybe these two could be teammates and friends for a short while before things become very heated?

No. 4 pick, Team LeBron: Donovan MItchell

Remember back in 2021 when Mitchell and Gobert were the last two picks in the draft even though the Jazz had the best record in the league at the time? Remember how James explained that away, saying, "Just like in video games growing up, we never played with Utah." Now, Mitchell is no longer with the Jazz and he's an All-Star starter for the first time in his career, so here's to betting James will excitedly swoop him up at this stage in the draft. 

No. 4 pick, Team Giannis: Lauri Markkanen

By default, the Jazz forward will go to Team Giannis, giving his team the hometown hero — and earning them a lot of excited fans in the crowd.

3-POINT CONTEST

This is a fun pool: Boston's Jayson Tatum, Sacramento's Kevin Huerter, Miami's Tyler Herro, Indiana's Tyrese Haliburton and Buddy Hield, Portland's Damian Lillard and Anfernee Simons and Utah's Markkanen.

My pick? Lillard.

He's having quite a bounce-back season after only playing 29 games in 2021-22 because of an abdominal injury. This season, he's averaging career-highs in points (31.2) and field-goal percentage (46.7%), while shooting 37.5% from beyond the arc for the Trail Blazers.

This will be Lillard's third time participating in this contest after doing so in 2014 and 2019. He has not yet won.

Hield leads the group in 3-point percentage, shooting a blistering 42.3% from that distance. But my money is on Dame Time.

SKILLS CHALLENGE

Mrs. Antetokounmpo must be pretty dang proud. Her three sons Giannis, Thanasis and Alex have their own team in this competition.They will go up against Team Jazz (Jordan Clarkson, Walker Kessler and Collin Sexton) and Team Rooks (Paolo Banchero, Jaden Ivey, Jabari Smith Jr.).

(Sidenote: Am I the only person who would be super down to make this a family competition? Imagine team Antetokounmpo going up against the Ball brothers, Lonzo, LaMelo and LiAngelo. Or Steph and Seth Curry participating, with their father, Dell, a legendary shooter in his own right, joining them on the court?)

Anyway, the Antetokounmpos lost last year to Team Cavs, and I actually think Team Rooks could go all the way on Saturday. 

But it's always fun to see a two-time MVP in Giannis participate in this competition alongside his two best friends. And you never know, maybe if they do well enough, Silver will be inspired to consider my idea.

So, I'm picking Team Antetokounmpo, maybe, possibly for my own selfish reasons. 

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SLAM DUNK CONTEST

This has historically been one of the most fun events of All-Star Weekend, though last year was a bit disappointing. And while I'd love to see guys like the human trampoline Ja Morant participate, it appears as though we have no such luck.

Here's to hoping this year's pool – Houston's KJ Martin, Philadelphia's Mac McClung, New Orleans' Trey Murphy III and New York's Jericho Sims — surprises us with some cool jams.

Martin is my pick.

The third-year forward for the Rockets has had some impressive in-game dunks and if he brings some creativity to his already well-known athleticism, there could be some electric moments from him.

Melissa Rohlin is an NBA writer for FOX Sports. She previously covered the league for Sports Illustrated, the Los Angeles Times, the Bay Area News Group and the San Antonio Express-News. Follow her on Twitter @melissarohlin.

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