NBA 2023-2024 Rookie of the Year odds and predictions, futures, pick

The 2023 NBA Draft is now in the past, which means rookies are already setting up shop in their new cities.

And as we look toward next season, bettors want to know which of these precocious neophytes are most likely to win the NBA Rookie of the Year Award (ROY).

After being the clear favorite to be the first draft pick overall, Victor Wembanyama has also secured the spot as the early favorite to win ROY with odds of -160 (bet $10 to win $16.25 total). And given that he is under the tutelage of former ROY winners David Robinson and Tim Duncan, you can strongly argue that these odds should be even shorter.

Scoot Henderson is the second favorite to win the award with odds of +400 after being drafted third overall to the Portland Trail Blazers. While it remains to be seen what happens with Damian Lillard, there is no denying that Henderson is a top-notch prospect and should have plenty of opportunities to put up stats regardless of Dame Time.

Rounding out the top three favorites is Chet Holmgren, who, after missing the entire season due to a foot injury, hopes to make his mark on the court with the Oklahoma City Thunder this season. The No. 2 pick in 2022 currently sits with the third overall best odds for ROY at +650, and with his Wembanyama-like skill set, he, too, should be a strong favorite to compete for the hardware.

So who will take home the award?

Let's look at the current odds for NBA Rookie of the Year.

ODDS TO WIN 2023 NBA ROY*

Victor Wembanyama: -160 (bet $10 to win $16.25 total)
Scoot Henderson: +400 (bet $10 to win $50 total)
Chet Holmgren: +650 (bet $10 to win $75 total)
Brandon Miller: +1300 (bet $10 to win $140 total)
Amen Thompson: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Ausar Thompson: +4000 (bet $10 to win $410 total)
Jarace Walker: +4600 (bet $10 to win $470 total)
Cam Whitmore: +5000 (bet $10 to win $510 total)
Taylor Hendricks:+5000 (bet $10 to win $510 total)
Anthony Black: +6000 (bet $10 to win $610 total)
Cason Wallace: +6000 (bet $10 to win $610 total)
Bilal Coulibaly: +6000 (bet $10 to win $610 total)
Gradey Dick: +6000 (bet $10 to win $610 total)
Jordan Hawkins: +11000 (bet $10 to win $1,010 total)
Dereck Lively II: +11000 (bet $10 to win $1,010 total)

*odds as of 6/29/2023

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Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Jason McIntyre:

The 2023 NBA rookie class is absolutely loaded with players who will instantly impact their teams, led by the potential generational talent in Victor Wembanyama, the 7-foot-5 Frenchman headed to San Antonio.

But when it comes to betting on Wemby to win ROY, it’s best to stay away from the -160 price for a couple of reasons.

First and foremost, the Spurs are the team that ushered in the phrase "load management" over a decade ago, so expect them to do the same with the skinny teenager. With a minimum of 65 games played to qualify for awards, are we certain the Spurs will play him that much? Either way, there will be nights he sits out.

The odds are second best for Scoot Henderson, but that’s a firm TBD. If Dame Lillard stays, how does Henderson play/ have the ball enough to put up numbers? And even if Lillard is traded, is Henderson starting over Anfernee Simons? Unlikely.

The only true rookie I’d consider is Brandon Miller in Charlotte, but even that comes with major caution flags. On a roster with chuckers like LaMelo Ball and Terry Rozier, how will Miller even get shots up? I'll pass.

This brings us to the name I’ll be betting on next month when I’m in Vegas: Chet Holmgren of OKC.

After missing all of last season, the 7-foot-1 Holmgren figures to be an integral member of the Thunder at both ends of the floor, and he might even start at center.

OKC made the play-in game and figures to potentially make the leap in the West, which would greatly help Holmgren’s prospects in the same way Malcolm Brogdon stole the award in 2017.

At these odds, the Thunder big man is definitely worth a sprinkle.

PICK: Chet Holmgren (+650) to win ROY

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