Milwaukee Bucks: Series With Toronto Raptors Is Tied But Not Even
Apr 15, 2017; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) dribbles past Toronto Raptors forward DeMarre Carroll (5) in game one of the first round of the 2017 NBA Playoffs at Air Canada Centre. Milwaukee defeated Toronto 97-83. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports
The Milwaukee Bucks dropped Game 2 against the Toronto Raptors on Tuesday night. Despite the loss, the Bucks are in prime position to win the series.
The Milwaukee Bucks were playing with house money Tuesday night. Serious underdogs to the Toronto Raptors, the Bucks stole home court in Game 1 with a 97-83 victory in Toronto. Regardless of the outcome in Game 2, the Bucks are ahead of expectations in their return to the postseason.
Even though Milwaukee lost Game 2, 106-100, they are in strong position ahead of Game 3. Not only do they have a win banked, but they play three of the final five games at the BMO Harris Bradley Center in Milwaukee. The Bucks are ahead of the curve.
Outside of the basic numbers, the Bucks have shown they are not an outmatched team getting lucky. Rather, they have proven through eight quarters that they are every bit as good as the higher-seeded Raptors, if not better.
What have the Bucks shown in their first two games that should give the team – and its fans – confidence moving forward? Why was the Toronto win in Game 2 fool's gold? And should the Cleveland Cavaliers begin watching Milwaukee tape?
Apr 15, 2017; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) dribbles past Toronto Raptors forward DeMarre Carroll (5) in game one of the first round of the 2017 NBA Playoffs at Air Canada Centre. Milwaukee defeated Toronto 97-83. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports
Bucks Have Been Better Overall
One reason Milwaukee should have confidence moving forward is that it has been the better team thus far. That plays out on the most basic level by adding up the numbers – the Bucks won by 14 in Game 1, and lost by just six in Game 2.
That is much too simplistic a way to look at things, but it highlights the simple fact that Milwaukee was competitive right to the end of the Raptors' win. It was a one-point contest going into the fourth quarter, and Milwaukee missed several shots in the final minutes that would have tied the game.
In Game 1, Milwaukee took control well before the end. They closed out the third quarter and never allowed the Raptors room to breathe on offense in the fourth, keeping a comfortable lead throughout.
Toronto's best quarter was the 22-17 closing frame in Tuesday night's win. The Bucks have three quarters where they outstripped the Raptors by at least eight points. Toronto has never been able to take control of a game, whereas Milwaukee clearly did in Game 1.
Finally, the Bucks have simply looked like a better team thus far. Giannis Antetokounmpo has been incredible, dominating in Game 1 and still getting quality looks in the second contest despite missing shots. The Raptors fought out a win, but they do not look like a team with a talent edge.
Through 96 minutes, that has been the Milwaukee Bucks and their long, athletic group of youngsters, led by the longest one of them all in Antetokounmpo.
Apr 15, 2017; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Raptors forward Serge Ibaka (9) goes to shoot against Milwaukee Bucks center Greg Monroe (15) in game one of the first round of the 2017 NBA Playoffs at Air Canada Centre. Milwaukee defeated Toronto 97-83. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports
Toronto Needed Its Best To Win
When the Raptors won Game 2, they got strong performances from their best players. Serge Ibaka stepped up in a huge way, scoring 13 of his 16 points in the deciding second half. DeRozan put up 23 points, and Jonas Valanciunas put up a double double with 10 points and 10 rebounds.
Corey Joseph, who struggled on both ends in Game 1, hit three triples en route to 11 points. Centrally, Kyle Lowry bounced back from a four-point showing in Game 1 to put up 22 points, capped with fourth quarter heroics to will the Raptors to the win.
The Toronto Raptors played well – and the Bucks were still there at the end. Giannis Antetokounmpo shot just 9-of-24, unusual given his ability to score around the basket. Rookie of the Year candidate Malcolm Brogdon was 3-for-11. Backup point guard Matthew Dellavedova was 3-for-10, including a pair of crucial late misses.
The Bucks did not play well – and they were still there at the end. Generally teams with the greater talent are the ones who can play poorly and still have an opportunity to win a game. That's not supposed to happen with an underdog team barely above .500 with its second-leading scorer sidelined by an ACL tear.
The Toronto Raptors were supposed to be one of the deepest teams in the league, with an All-Star backcourt, wing depth and a versatile rotation of bigs. Yet it's the talent of the Bucks shining through thus far. If Antetokounmpo makes shots in the games to come, it already looks bleak for the Raptors to win the series.
Apr 15, 2017; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Milwaukee Bucks guard Jason Terry (3) prior to the start of game one of the first round of the 2017 NBA Playoffs between the Milwaukee Bucks and Toronto Raptors at Air Canada Centre. Milwaukee defeated Toronto 97-83. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports
Home Court Now Goes To Milwaukee
The phrase "steal home court" is one tossed around during NBA playoff series, and it may seem like a minor thing. Overall the Raptors and Bucks are tied at 1-1, with the series now reset to a best-of-five series.
The reason this is not entirely accurate is that three of the final five games will be played in Milwaukee. If the Bucks simply hold on at home, they will advance to the second round of the playoffs for the first time in 16 years.
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The Milwaukee Bucks are not an especially dominant team at home; in fact, their 23-18 mark is identical to Toronto's 23-18 mark on the road. Seven teams in the Eastern Conference won more games at home than the Bucks.
But the reality is that every team plays better at home, and Milwaukee has already shown this postseason that it is a better team than the sum of its season. The length and lineup versatility are ideal for a playoff setting, and for all of his faults, Jason Kidd has seemed to over-perform in the playoff spotlight as a head coach.
The burden is now on Toronto to win as the road team in one of the games in Wisconsin. They have to steal back home court, or yet again wilt as the loser in a first-round upset. Last season the Raptors showed an ability to win back a series after dropping a game at home – they will have to do so yet again.
Apr 18, 2017; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) slaps hands with guard Matthew Dellavedova (8) after making a basket as Toronto Raptors guard Demar DeRozan (10) looks on in game two of the first round of the 2017 NBA Playoffs at Air Canada Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
Milwaukee Has Cards Yet To Play
The Milwaukee Bucks have been the better team through two games. The Milwaukee Bucks have home-court advantage for the remainder of the series. And it is the Milwaukee Bucks with cards left to play that could tip things even more in their balance.
As noted by the Ringer's Jonathan Tjarks, head coach Jason Kidd has a number of moves he could make to further eliminate Toronto's strengths. Those moves center around Giannis Antetokounmpo, perhaps the league's most versatile player and one still brimming with potential.
DeMar DeRozan has struggled in the last three postseasons for the Raptors, and in ways that the Bucks can replicate. Strong wings with length have troubled DeRozan, specifically Paul George and LeBron James last year.
Through two games Kidd has leaned on Tony Snell, Khris Middleton and Malcolm Brogdon to match up with DeRozan. They have done a solid job — the Toronto wing is shooting just 16-for-39 from the field — but DeRozan has managed to generate 20 free throw attempts, hitting 18 of them.
If Kidd decides to put Antetokounmpo on DeRozan, the Raptors could instantly lose their leading scorer. Giannis' length would neutralize DeRozan's angles at the rim, and give him the space not to bite on shot fakes but simply contest from a solid defensive stance.
Antetokounmpo can also shift down, playing the 5 in smaller, wing-heavy lineups. The wingspan of the Bucks rotation is so incredible that putting the 6'11" Antetokounmpo at the 5 is hard to quantify as "small ball," even though he is a nominal small forward. Such a move would unlock full 1-to-5 switchable versatility and open up the floor on offense.
There are other adjustments Kidd could make as well – starting Greg Monroe, pairing Dellavedova and Brogdon more often, further cross-matching defensive assignments to confuse Toronto in transition – which means Milwaukee is dangerous moving forward.
If Toronto didn't realize it yet, Game 3 may be the reality check.