Milwaukee Bucks Game Preview: Jan. 2 vs Oklahoma City Thunder

By Fansided and Ti Windisch/FanSided via Behind the Buck Pass
Published

Mar 6, 2016; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook (0) drives for the basket against Milwaukee Bucks forward Jabari Parker (12) int he first quarter at BMO Harris Bradley Center. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

The Milwaukee Bucks can really start the new year off right with a big win over the Oklahoma City Thunder.

The Milwaukee Bucks ended 2016 with fireworks in Chicago when the team lit the Bulls on fire for the third time this season. So much for the “rivalry” between those two teams!

A much tougher opponent is up next. The Bucks open 2017 by taking on the Oklahoma City Thunder in Milwaukee. Russell Westbrook is on a personal mission to force Oklahoma City to be good, and it’s worked out for him so far.

    The Thunder are 21-13, good enough for fifth place in the tough Western Conference. Westbrook himself has been transcendent this season, his first with the Thunder since Kevin Durant left for the Golden State Warriors.

    The Bucks will likely need to bring their A game to hang with the Warriors. Giannis Antetokounmpo could help his All-Star game push by going toe-to-toe with Westbrook and coming out on top. Westbrook is a legitimate MVP candidate, so you can bet people will be watching this game intently.

    Milwaukee could certainly use some wins to help solidify the Bucks playoff position before the All-Star break. Right now there’s a huge clump of Eastern Conference teams around the middle of the pack–one game separates the 10th place Bulls from the sixth place Washington Wizards.

    That means every game has importance for the Bucks. To find out how they could win or lose on Monday, we’ll go through the major keys for both teams. Then we’ll look at a member of the Thunder to keep an eye on, followed by predictions.

    Dec 29, 2015; Oklahoma City, OK, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook (0) shoots the ball in front of Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) during the fourth quarter at Chesapeake Energy Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports

    Major Key For Milwaukee: Hinder Westbrook

    Hindering Russell Westbrook is no easy task, but it’s a necessary one for any team wanting to beat the Oklahoma City Thunder this season. Westbrook is the engine that drives the Thunder, and when he’s whirling around through defenses it can feel overwhelming for the opposition.

    The key for the Bucks here isn’t stopping Westbrook–that might not be possible. All Milwaukee needs to do is slow him down, and force him to take too many shots. Sometimes Westbrook’s trigger-happy nature can be used against him.

    In 15 games this season, Westbrook has shot 40 percent or worse from the field. The Thunder are 6-9 in those games. On the other hand, when Westbrook makes at least 50 percent of his shots Oklahoma City is 9-2.

    He’ll get his points one way or another. The Bucks need to make sure it takes a lot of shots–and misses–for Westbrook to get up to his insane 30 points per game. If it does, Milwaukee will have a much better shot of winning on Monday.

    Dec 31, 2016; Oklahoma City, OK, USA; LA Clippers guard Raymond Felton (2) drives to the basket in front of Oklahoma City Thunder center Steven Adams (12) during the second quarter at Chesapeake Energy Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports

    Major Key For Oklahoma City: Play Some Defense

    Believe it or not, even though Westbrook scores so much the Thunder would much rather have a low-scoring game than one with huge scoring totals. Oklahoma City is 5-10 when the team gives up 110 or more points, and 8-13 when the opposition scores at least 102 points.

    On the other hand, when the Thunder defense is rolling the team becomes unstoppable. When Oklahoma City gives up 101 points or less in a game, the Thunder are 13-0. That makes that 101 point line vital for both teams on Monday night.

    If the Bucks can get up past it, their chances of winning increase significantly. Oklahoma City loses 66 percent of the time when they give up at least 110 points, and 62 percent of the time when they give up at least 102. Those are great odds for Milwaukee, compared to the Thunder losing 0 percent of the time when they give up less than 102.

    Those numbers make some sense. Low-scoring games are likely closer, and close games have been where Westbrook has shined the brightest this year. With the game on the line, there haven’t been many more effective players than Russ this year. Milwaukee will be much better off if this game is not close late.

    Dec 29, 2016; Memphis, TN, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook (0) during the game against the Memphis Grizzlies at FedExForum. Memphis defeated Oklahoma City 114-80. Mandatory Credit: Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports

    Player To Watch: Russell Westbrook

    Without Kevin Durant around, all Russell Westbrook done is set career-best marks in points, rebounds and assists per game while having one of his most efficient seasons ever as an NBA player.

    More from Behind the Buck Pass

      Westbrook is averaging 30.9 points, 10.7 assists and 10.5 rebounds per game, on pace to average a triple-double for the first time since Oscar Robertson. He’s also shooting 43.2 percent from the field and a career-best 33.2 percent from three-point range.

      It hasn’t just been flashy numbers for Westbrook this year either. Oklahoma City needs their star player. With him on the floor, the Thunder outscore opponents by 6.2 points per 100 possessions. Without him, Oklahoma City gets ran off of the floor–opponents outscore the Thunder by 12.1 points per 100 possessions when Westbrook sits.

      Milwaukee will have to take advantage of a weak Thunder bench in the minutes Westbrook is on the bench, and force him into bad shots while he’s on the floor. Good luck to Malcolm Brogdon if he’s still the starter on Monday–one of the bigger challenges in the NBA awaits Milwaukee’s point guard in Westbrook.

      Mar 6, 2016; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Dion Waiters (3) and center Steven Adams (12) puts pressure on Milwaukee Bucks forward Jabari Parker (12) in the fourth quarter at BMO Harris Bradley Center. The Thunder beat the Bucks 104-96. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

      Finale

      This game will be difficult, but not impossible. The Bucks have a chance against just about anybody now–Milwaukee proved that by beating the Cleveland Cavaliers in their first game against them, and by giving the Golden State Warriors and San Antonio Spurs real runs for their money.

      All three of those teams are better than the Thunder, who are essentially serving as a platform for Russell Westbrook to practice basketball domination. If the Bucks can slow him down just a bit, their chances of winning go up exponentially.

      A lot of this will come down to how much Milwaukee can score. With Jabari likely drawing Domantas Sabonis on defense, he could end up playing a crucial role in the Bucks getting past that 101 point mark that matters so much to OKC.

      Predictions and Leaderboard:bucks 20

      Rohan Katti: Bucks by 4 — 22-9, 370 point differential

      Adam Coffman: Bucks by 5 — 21-10, 362 point differential

      Tom Pheister: Bucks by 9 — 20-12, 397 point differential

      Adam McGee: Bucks by 5 — 19-13, 378 point differential

      Jordan Treske: Bucks by 14 — 19-13, 435 point differential

      Lukas Harkins: Bucks by 2 — 18-14, 393 point differential

      Tim Wray: Bucks by 7 — 18-14, 401 point differential

      Ti Windisch: Bucks by 9 — 16-16, 397 point differential

      The game is on Monday night at 6:00 p.m. CT, and will be televised on Fox Sports Wisconsin.